The key tension in this ZIP is a modest recent recovery against a still-negative medium-run rent path. At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow ZIP ZORI is $1,569 per month. The exact same-month annualized change is 0.6% over one year, -1.4% over three years, and 1.5% over five years. The latest direction therefore breaks from the three-year decline rather than fully restoring it, while remaining consistent with a positive longer record. These are backward-looking measurements, not a forecast or investment recommendation. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease quote for every home. It summarizes marketed-rent movement, not the contractual rents of only recently signed leases.
The history offers a complete observation window but not certainty about a particular listing. It contains 138 monthly observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns, producing 100% coverage through the endpoint. Complete coverage means the stated statistics use the available window rather than a partially observed series. Annualized monthly-return variability is 3.2%, and maximum drawdown is -7.3%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIP markets are 2,388 for momentum, 1,892 for stability, and 2,538 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher. These ranks are discovery tools, not performance grades. The observed variability and past decline mean that a single current rent snapshot deserves more confidence as a current index reading than as a durable path.
The five-digit 85283 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent for occupied renter homes is $1,767, with a $50 margin of error; this measure includes selected utilities. The current ZORI is 88.8% of that median. ZORI and ACS are not competing estimates: ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes. The ACS figure is survey-based and carries sampling uncertainty, while index construction is a separate process. Their timing, population, and included costs differ, so the gap cannot price an individual property.
Bedroom specificity is supplied as a scaling model, not direct ZIP rent measurement. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,245 for a studio, $1,350 for one bedroom, $1,569 for two bedrooms, $2,089 for three bedrooms, and $2,323 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The FY2026 local HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,080; HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The ladder establishes relative bedroom steps but cannot establish an individual property’s price or utility treatment. It also does not replace a listing’s stated bedroom designation or physical layout.
The affordability arithmetic is set against household data, but it is not an eligibility test. Applying a 30% rent share to the current index yields a required annual income of $62,760. The matched ZCTA reports median household income of $84,568, making the current asking-rent-to-income ratio 22.3%. The ACS renter-household burden estimate is 49.8% at or above 30% of income spent on gross rent. The required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and the burden rate cannot prove what any household in a particular unit pays or can afford. Household medians and burden statistics describe groups rather than the finances, utility arrangements, or lease terms of a named household.
Supply and tenure data describe the ZCTA’s housing inventory, not the listing pipeline. It has 20,719 housing units, a 5.9% vacancy rate, and 519 units classified vacant for rent. Renters represent 49.1% of occupied units. The reported stock includes 12,185 single-family units and 2,741 units in large multifamily structures, categories that do not identify condition, location, availability, or rent. Vacancy is a broad census status, so it cannot establish that a specific unit is available, competitive, or likely to lease at a given amount. The classification does not disclose marketing status, turnover timing, or whether terms are comparable across properties.
For wider context only, Tempe city context rent is $1,667, Maricopa County context rent is $1,729, and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro context rent is $1,733. These city, county, and metro values are wider-area context, not substitutes for the ZIP-level index or property-level evidence. They do not demonstrate why rents differ or what a particular listing will command. To interpret a unit, verify the advertised asking rent, bedroom count, rental type, interior size, lease duration, selected utilities, fees, concessions, active availability, listing date, and address placement. The practical question is whether a specific listing’s all-in advertised terms match the relevant modelled rung and measurement period.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI stands at $1,569 in June 2026. The exact same-month record shows 0.6% annualized growth over one year, -1.4% over three years, and 1.5% over five years. The recent positive movement therefore interrupts the negative medium-run measure, but it does not establish a forecast. The history reflects ZIP-level asking-rent index observations, not individual lease outcomes.","title":"Recent direction versus medium-run path"},{"body":"The $1,767 ACS median gross rent is not a second asking-rent quote. It comes from the matched ZCTA’s 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes, includes selected utilities, and has survey uncertainty. ZORI is an observed typical asking-rent index blended across rental types. The ZCTA is statistical geography, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Different rent universes explain the gap"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled by scaling the ZIP index with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. They are not observed bedroom rents. HUD is an administrative standard, while the 30% screen produces a mathematical annual-income comparator. Neither a HUD standard nor the screen decides a renter’s eligibility, affordability, or a property’s offered rent.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled, not observed"},{"body":"Inventory data identify a 5.9% ZCTA vacancy rate and units classified vacant for rent, while wider Tempe city, Maricopa County, and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro rents provide context only. These aggregates cannot identify active availability, utility responsibility, concessions, lease terms, or condition. A listing-level comparison needs the advertised all-in rent, bedroom designation, property type, date, and address placement.","title":"Inventory and context require listing checks"}],"risks":["The ZIP ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index. A unit can differ because its rental type, bedrooms, interior size, utility treatment, term, fees, concessions, and listing timing are not resolved by the index.","ACS applies to matched ZCTA occupied renter homes and aggregates five survey years, whereas a USPS delivery ZIP is not identical to a ZCTA. Survey medians and burden estimates cannot be transferred directly to a single address.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values serve as administrative standards and only supply relative inputs to the bedroom model. The resulting figures can misalign with actual bedroom designation, condition, lease terms, utility inclusion, or a property’s active asking price.","Vacancy and burden data are area-level classifications and household estimates. They neither prove that a particular dwelling is available nor show whether a specific household qualifies, pays a given amount, or faces the reported burden."],"qa":[{"a":"The June 2026 ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types. It provides a contemporaneous market-index reading, not a measured rent for each bedroom count, a signed-lease average, or a guaranteed price for any named available property.","q":"What does the current ZORI measure?"},{"a":"The ACS result is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes in a matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. ZORI captures a typical asking-rent index at a ZIP market level. Different timing, household universe, utility treatment, and statistical construction mean the two figures should not be treated as interchangeable quotes.","q":"Why is ACS gross rent higher than ZORI?"},{"a":"The studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled estimates. The method takes current ZIP ZORI and scales it according to the supplied local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD values are administrative standards rather than observed asking rents, so the outputs indicate proportional bedroom estimates and cannot verify a particular unit’s rent.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates calculated?"},{"a":"The exact same-month history shows a recent positive year after a negative three-year annualized path, alongside a positive five-year annualized path. Full coverage makes the calculation complete for the observed window, but annualized variability and maximum drawdown show prior movement. It is backward-looking, not a forecast, and individual listings still require direct verification.","q":"What does the history say about confidence in the current rent snapshot?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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