Rent in this ZIP is notable less for a recent surge than for a sharp contrast between its long path and its latest pace. At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow ZORI, the ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, was $2,119 per month. Its one-year exact same-month annualized change was 0.02%, the three-year change was also 0.02%, and the five-year change was 2.16%. The recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer path’s growth pace: asking rent was essentially flat over the nearer comparisons despite a positive five-year record. This history contains 138 monthly observations with 100% coverage, so it is a backward-looking measurement set rather than a forecast or investment recommendation.
How much weight to place on the current rent snapshot depends on the path’s variability as well as its level. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.31%, indicating limited month-to-month movement in the recorded Zillow series. The largest observed peak-to-trough drawdown was 2.53%, a contained historical retreat rather than evidence that declines cannot recur. Among history-eligible ZIPs, the transparent national discovery rank was 423 for stability and 2,409 for momentum, where lower ranks are stronger. Together, full coverage and low variability support more confidence that the current index represents a relatively stable recent reading; the near-flat one-year and three-year measures still argue against treating that snapshot as a continuation of the older five-year pace.
Source scope matters because similar rent figures answer different questions. Zillow’s current ZORI is an asking-rent index, while the ACS 2024 five-year matched ZCTA survey reports occupied renter homes’ median gross rent of $2,109, with a $107 margin of error and selected utilities included. The current asking index is only $10, or 0.5%, higher, but that proximity does not make the measures interchangeable. The label 85286 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,440, or 13.2% above ZORI; it is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent.
The bedroom ladder is best read as a modelling device, not a list of observed unit rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,676 for a studio, $1,824 for one bedroom, $2,119 for two bedrooms, $2,822 for three bedrooms, and $3,144 for four bedrooms. These figures preserve the local HUD size relationships while anchoring their overall level to Zillow’s blended ZIP asking-rent index. They are not measured bedroom rents, and the two-bedroom alignment with the overall ZORI level is a result of the model construction rather than evidence that a typical available two-bedroom asks exactly that amount.
The income screen is comparatively favorable at the aggregate household level, while burden data adds an important qualification. Applying the arithmetic 30% screen to the current asking index produces required annual income of $84,760. ACS reports median household income of $121,758, so annualized ZORI represents 20.9% of that ZIP-wide median household income. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; household income is also not the same thing as renter income. In the ACS five-year renter survey, 42.3% of renter households had gross-rent burdens at or above the stated threshold. That survey share describes a population estimate and cannot prove affordability, availability, or payment experience for any particular household or unit.
Housing stock provides a separate frame for reading those burden and asking-rent measures. The ZCTA has 18,765 housing units, a 2.5% overall vacancy rate, and a renter share of 34.6%; 223 vacant units were identified specifically as for rent. These counts describe the survey’s housing stock and do not establish vacancy, concessions, or leasing conditions at a particular property. For wider context only, Chandler city had a $1,903 context rent, Maricopa County had a $1,729 context rent, and the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro had a $1,733 context rent and 8.1% apartment vacancy. Those city, county, and metro measures are broader-geography context, while the metro vacancy figure is apartment-specific rather than the ZIP’s all-housing vacancy measure.
Redfin supplies a distinct for-sale lens through a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions. Its median sold price was $628,358, up 1.35% year over year, across 150 homes sold. Median days on market were 52, inventory was 138 homes, and months of supply were 2.8. Sale-to-list signals were mixed: the average sale-to-list ratio was 98.21%, 14.4% of homes sold above list, and 34.31% went off market within two weeks. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 4.05%, a cross-source screening ratio only, not property-level economics. The modest resale price gain and limited supply sit beside longer marketing time and below-list average sales, creating a resale tension that does not simply confirm the nearly flat recent asking-rent history.
Several limits remain material before applying these market-level observations to a property. ZORI does not identify an individual unit’s lease terms, condition, utility treatment, fees, concessions, availability date, or bedroom fit; ACS is a five-year occupied-home survey, and HUD is a policy standard. Redfin’s sale evidence describes resale outcomes rather than rental comparables, operating costs, or a specific asset. A property-level review would need matched current asking listings, documented lease charges, comparable unit size and condition, and recent nearby resale records with actual sold prices and marketing histories. The unresolved property-level question is whether the specific unit’s characteristics align with the broad ZIP measures rather than merely sharing the same geographic label.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP asking-rent index is essentially unchanged across the one-year and three-year same-month comparisons, while the five-year annualized measure remains positive. Low historical variability and a modest maximum drawdown make the current reading more stable than a highly erratic series, but the flat nearer intervals do not validate extrapolation from the five-year result.","title":"Recent rent direction is flat against a positive longer record"},{"body":"Current Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent are numerically close, but ZORI measures typical observed asking rent across rental types whereas ACS describes occupied renter homes over five survey years and includes selected utilities. HUD’s bedroom-specific FMR/SAFMR benchmark is administrative rather than market asking rent. Each figure is useful only within its stated scope.","title":"The closest-looking rent figures remain different evidence universes"},{"body":"The arithmetic income needed to place current ZORI at 30% of gross income is below ZIP-wide median household income. At the same time, the ACS burden estimate shows that a substantial share of renter households are already at or above that threshold. Neither statistic establishes what a given renter can pay or whether a specific available unit is affordable.","title":"Aggregate income capacity and renter burden point in different directions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data shows a year-over-year increase in median sold price and relatively limited months of supply, but also a longer marketing period and average sales below list price. That combination is for-sale evidence only. The rent-to-price screening ratio can compare broad sources, yet it cannot describe operating expenses, lease collections, financing, or property-level economics.","title":"Resale evidence complicates a simple rent-strength interpretation"}],"risks":["Near-zero one-year and three-year asking-rent changes mean the positive five-year history should not be treated as a current growth assumption, especially when interpreting a single index reading.","ACS gross rent, Zillow asking rent, and HUD administrative standards use different populations, timing, utility treatment, and purposes, so numerical closeness between them does not establish equivalence.","The ZIP-wide burden share and vacancy statistics are survey-based population measures and cannot demonstrate current availability, concessions, tenant payment capacity, or conditions at any individual rental unit.","Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale metrics concern homes that sold, not rental transactions; the screening ratio omits property expenses, financing, taxes, repairs, and all unit-specific operating details."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types at the stated current endpoint. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Their similar levels can be useful context, but they describe different populations, timing, and rent concepts.","q":"Why are Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent close but not interchangeable?"},{"a":"They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall Zillow asking-rent index through the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured rents from bedroom-specific listings or leases. The ladder is useful for a consistent size comparison, but an individual unit can differ based on its own characteristics and terms.","q":"What do the bedroom rent figures represent?"},{"a":"It is a mechanical calculation: annualized current asking rent divided by 30%. It is not a recommendation, an affordability guarantee, or an applicant qualification rule. The ZIP-wide median household income and the ACS renter-burden estimate provide context, but neither measure identifies the income or obligations of a specific prospective renter.","q":"How should the 30% required-income figure be interpreted?"},{"a":"It says only that annualized ZIP Zillow asking rent has been divided by the direct ZIP median sold price from Redfin’s resale observation. It is a cross-source screening ratio, not a measure of property operations. It does not include expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancies, lease terms, or the condition and location of a particular home.","q":"What does the Redfin screening ratio say about a property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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