At June 2026, ZIP 85297’s Zillow Observed Rent Index is $2,197 per month. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-level quote for a specified home. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For wider context, the City of Gilbert context rent is $2,019, the Maricopa County context rent is $1,729, and the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro context rent is $1,733; those are wider-geography comparisons, not ZIP rental comps.
The history offers a stable but notably slower recent path than its longer record. The exact same-month one-year annualized ZORI change was 0.06%, the three-year measure was 0.23%, and the five-year measure was 2.13%. Thus, the current near-flat direction breaks from, rather than confirms, the stronger five-year growth path. Annualized monthly-return variability measures 2.66%, indicating relatively limited month-to-month movement in the historical index, while the worst observed peak-to-trough drawdown was 2.16%, showing that declines still occurred. Coverage is 100% across 138 observations. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,386 for momentum, 984 for stability, and 2,044 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations; the modest variability supports some confidence in the broad snapshot, while the recent slowdown argues against treating one month as a complete trend statement.
Bedroom figures are best used as a consistent model rather than as direct market measurements. The ZIP ZORI scaled through the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,736 for a studio, $1,896 for one bedroom, $2,197 for two bedrooms, $2,932 for three bedrooms, and $3,269 for four bedrooms. Those estimates are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. HUD’s FY2026 local FMR/SAFMR ladder is $1,960, $2,140, $2,480, $3,310, and $3,690 across the same bedroom sequence. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so its role here is to provide the relative scaling structure rather than to validate a particular listing price.
The matched Census ZCTA ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $2,302 and median household income of $130,755. ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, making it fundamentally different from Zillow’s current asking-rent index. Under a 30% required-income screen, the current ZORI equates arithmetically to $87,880 in annual income. That screen is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; household composition, utilities, lease terms, and income sources are not resolved by ZIP aggregates. The ACS burden measure nevertheless shows that 1,508 of 2,950 renter households, or 51.1%, reported paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent. This documents aggregate survey burden, not whether any given household can afford any particular vacant unit.
Housing stock and vacancy add an important constraint to how broadly the rent indicators should be read. The ZCTA contains 12,160 housing units, including 10,859 single-family units and 669 units in larger multifamily structures. Its overall ACS vacancy rate is 3.6%, with 172 units classified as vacant and for rent. That composition means the ZIP-wide asking-rent index is spanning a stock base with substantial single-family representation rather than representing only conventional apartment listings. Vacancy classifications are aggregate census categories, not live availability data: they cannot establish that a specific home is available, that its asking rent matches ZORI, or that it is suitable for a particular renter. The City of Gilbert, Maricopa County, and metro figures remain context only, with their differing geographic scopes and housing mixes.
Redfin provides a separate, direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation through June 30, not rental transactions. In that for-sale universe, the median sold price was $633,357, down 0.65% year over year. Redfin recorded 121 homes sold and a median 52 days on market, while inventory stood at 171 homes and months of supply was 4.3. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.46%, and 14.42% of sales closed above list price. Those are direct ZIP resale liquidity, pricing, marketing-time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals; they do not describe rental transactions, rental availability, or the economics of a specific property. The combination of a slightly lower sold-price median, below-list average execution, and measurable marketing time provides a resale-market counterweight to the ZIP’s longer rent-growth history.
The central tension is therefore between a five-year record of positive asking-rent growth and a current period in which rent change is almost flat while the direct ZIP resale median has edged lower. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price produces a 4.16% cross-source screening ratio. It is only a screening ratio, not a measure of property costs, collected income, financing, maintenance, taxes, insurance, or outcomes for an individual home. The ratio can help organize the contrast between an asking-rent index and a resale-price observation, but it cannot reconcile the different source universes. The ACS burden result also keeps the affordability screen from being read as proof of tenant capacity, even though the arithmetic required-income threshold is below the ZCTA-wide household-income median.
Any property-level review should test the ZIP evidence against current, matching listings and transactions before relying on it. Useful checks include the actual bedroom count, property type, asking rent, lease length, utilities paid by the tenant, concessions, condition, and availability date for rental candidates. For resale candidates, review recent comparable closed sales, list-price history, marketing time, property-specific taxes, insurance, maintenance needs, and any financing assumptions separately from Redfin’s ZIP median. Confirm the address’s relevant geographic mapping because the ZCTA is statistical rather than a USPS delivery boundary. Neither aggregate vacancy nor renter burden proves anything about a particular unit; the unresolved question is whether current, like-for-like property terms support the ZIP-level snapshot.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI for ZIP 85297 is $2,197 in June 2026, above the City of Gilbert, Maricopa County, and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro context rents supplied in the packet. This is a ZIP-level blended asking-rent index, so the comparison identifies a broader price position rather than a direct matched-property rent differential.","title":"Current asking-rent position"},{"body":"Exact same-month rent history shows 0.06% annualized growth over one year and 0.23% over three years, compared with 2.13% over five years. Low 2.66% annualized variability and a 2.16% maximum drawdown make the historical series comparatively steady, but they do not turn the current flat reading into a forecast.","title":"Long-run growth has slowed sharply"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale data show a $633,357 median sold price, a 0.65% annual decline, 52 median days on market, and 4.3 months of supply. Those signals are not rental evidence, yet they provide a useful counterpoint to the longer asking-rent growth record and the current nearly flat rent change.","title":"Resale evidence challenges a simple rent-strength narrative"},{"body":"The ACS ZCTA survey places median gross rent at $2,302 and finds 51.1% of renter households burdened at or above 30% of income. The current ZORI’s arithmetic required-income screen is $87,880 annually, but this should not be treated as a household qualification standard because ACS household income and ZIP asking rents describe different populations and units.","title":"Aggregate affordability remains mixed"}],"risks":["Zillow asking-rent index, ACS occupied-renter survey estimates, HUD bedroom standards, and Redfin resale observations cover different populations and transaction types, so they should not be treated as interchangeable comparable-rent evidence.","The historical series is complete and relatively low-volatility, but its one-year and three-year growth rates are far weaker than its five-year rate, limiting confidence in a single current rent snapshot.","Redfin’s resale figures describe sold homes and listing-market liquidity, not rental transactions; a ZIP median sold price cannot establish value, rent, expenses, or financial results for any individual property.","ACS vacancy and rent-burden measures are aggregate survey categories with uncertainty and cannot prove that a particular unit is available, that utilities match, or that a particular renter household is affordable."],"qa":[{"a":"The five-digit label is Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and is matched here to Census ZCTA data. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area built for tabulation, while a USPS delivery ZIP is an operational mail-routing geography. The two can overlap substantially without being identical boundaries.","q":"What exactly does ZIP 85297 represent in this report?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling ZIP Zillow ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured rents for available apartments or houses, and they do not replace listing-level checks of bedroom count, property type, lease terms, utilities, or concessions.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents?"},{"a":"It is an arithmetic screen: annualizing the current ZIP asking-rent index and dividing by 30% produces the stated income threshold. It is not advice, an underwriting conclusion, or an applicant qualification rule. It does not account for household size, other debts, utility obligations, subsidies, income stability, or actual lease terms.","q":"How should the 30% required-income figure be used?"},{"a":"The ratio divides annualized Zillow ZORI by Redfin’s ZIP median sold price, combining an asking-rent index with a resale observation. It can organize a cross-source comparison, but it omits property-specific expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, collected rent, and differences between individual homes and ZIP aggregates.","q":"Why is the Redfin screening ratio limited?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area 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