Cooling, rather than a simple level comparison, defines the current signal in this ZIP. At the supplied Zillow endpoint, Zillow ZORI is $1,363, down 1.03% year over year. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease quote for a defined available dwelling. The 85302 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For wider context only, the Glendale city asking-rent reading is $1,524, the Maricopa County asking-rent reading is $1,729, and the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro asking-rent reading is $1,733. Those larger areas frame the ZIP reading but are not ZIP rental comparables.
That latest retreat fits a cooling history, but duration changes the reading. Exact same-month Zillow ZORI change is -1.03% over one year, -0.20% annualized over three years, and 2.93% annualized over five years. The recent decline therefore extends the mild three-year contraction while breaking from the positive five-year path. History coverage is 100%. Annualized variability across monthly returns is 2.96%, indicating limited observed movement around the path and supporting moderate, not complete, confidence in a single current index snapshot. Separately, its maximum drawdown, measured as a historical peak-to-trough pullback, reached 2.40%. Among history-eligible ZIPs, the transparent national discovery ranks are 2,608 for momentum, 1,554 for stability, and 2,546 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Rent figures of similar size are not interchangeable evidence. In the matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,332. This is a survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, with a stated sampling margin of error; it is not a current asking-rent observation. HUD FMR for two bedrooms is $1,530, and the ZIP ZORI is 10.9% below that standard. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Scaling ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,060 for a studio, $1,158 for one bedroom, $1,363 for two bedrooms, $1,844 for three bedrooms, and $2,093 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents or confirmed unit quotes.
At the 30% required-income screen, annualizing the ZIP ZORI yields $54,520 in household income. This screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The same annualized asking-rent index equals 25.1% of the reported ZCTA median household income, an aggregate comparison that does not describe any household's circumstances. The ACS burden tabulation is more cautionary: 4,026 of 7,201 renter households, or 55.9%, reported gross rent at or above the threshold. Because those ACS households and utility-inclusive gross rents differ from ZORI's asking-rent universe, the two results should be read together as context, not reconciled as if they measured the same leases. Neither statistic proves burden for a particular unit or renter.
Tenure and vacancy describe another distinct layer of the matched ZCTA. The ACS structural snapshot records 15,938 housing units, a 4.2% vacancy rate, and a 47.2% renter share. The stock includes 10,351 single-family units, alongside other structure types. These are survey estimates that describe a broad housing base and tenure mix, not a count of currently advertised homes. The vacancy rate measures all vacant units in that survey universe rather than a live availability rate for a specific rental. It therefore cannot demonstrate that any address is vacant, rentable, appropriately sized, or offered at the ZIP asking-rent index. This distinction also prevents using renter share as evidence about a particular lease or household.
Redfin supplies a different and direct signal: its rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale/resale observation at June 30, 2026 shows a $389,912 median sold price, down 4.9% year over year. It records 137 homes sold and a median 57 days on market, measures inventory at 104 homes, and reports 2.3 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result is 97.8%, while 12.0% of homes sold above list. These numbers describe direct ZIP resale liquidity, marketing time, supply, and negotiation signals. They are not rental transactions, rental comparables, or evidence about rents received by landlords.
Putting the sources side by side exposes a useful tension. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price is 4.19%, a cross-source screening ratio only, not a property-level measure of economics. The sale-price decline is steeper than the asking-rent decline, so both backward-looking series support a cooling direction rather than a rent-versus-price offset. At the same time, lower ZIP asking rent than the named city, county, and metro contexts sits alongside a majority burden result in the ACS renter survey. That tension challenges any simple claim that a lower current index settles affordability. Resale supply, pricing, and sale-to-list signals neither explain tenant conditions nor convert the screening ratio into property performance.
Decision use depends on retaining those limits at the address level. A property-level file would need the current advertised rent and availability date; actual bedroom count, square footage, and utility responsibility; lease term, fees, deposits, and concessions; and whether the unit's physical attributes match the type blended into ZORI. For a resale comparison, the relevant checks are the specific list price, closing price, sale date, marketing history, and property features behind the reported ZIP aggregate. Neither ZORI nor the modelled ladder identifies those details; ACS does not identify a particular dwelling; HUD standards are not lease quotes; and Redfin sale records do not report rental terms. The history and resale observations are backward-looking, so they cannot supply a forecast. Keeping those records separate prevents vacancy or burden from being treated as proof about an individual property.
","findings":[{"body":"The latest same-month decline and the mild three-year contraction place the current ZIP index in a cooling pattern. A positive five-year annualized result complicates a simple long-decline narrative. Complete coverage, contained observed movement, and the shallower historical drawdown provide context for the current reading, while the momentum, stability, and balanced ranks remain backward-looking discovery measures rather than forecasts.","title":"Cooling path, not a uniform decline"},{"body":"ACS, ZORI, and HUD begin with different rental universes. The ACS matched-ZCTA figure is a utility-inclusive survey measure for occupied renter homes, while ZORI is an observed asking-rent index and HUD is an administrative bedroom standard. The local bedroom ladder is useful for creating internally consistent modelled estimates, but it is not evidence of measured studio, one-bedroom, or larger-unit asking rents.","title":"Three rent benchmarks answer different questions"},{"body":"The income screen and burden statistic point in different but compatible directions. The ZIP-level arithmetic screen compares annualized asking rent with aggregate household income, whereas the burden tabulation reports surveyed renter households whose gross rent reaches the threshold. A broad vacancy and renter-share description adds housing context, but it cannot identify what is available, affordable, or occupied at one address.","title":"Aggregate income screen and burden signal diverge"},{"body":"Redfin's rolling resale window supplies direct evidence on sale prices, transaction count, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes in the ZIP. It confirms that the sale market also shows cooling, yet it remains separate from rental observations. The rent-price calculation is only an annualized cross-source screening ratio. It does not turn ZIP aggregates into property-specific economic results.","title":"Resale cooling confirms direction but remains separate"}],"risks":["The ZIP ZORI reading blends rental types and reports a typical asking-rent index, so a property can differ materially in lease terms, concessions, utility treatment, availability, and listed rent.","ACS is a five-year matched-ZCTA survey with margins of error and selected-utility gross rents; its geography and household universe are not identical to a delivery ZIP or current asking-rent listings.","HUD bedroom standards are administrative benchmarks, and the modelled bedroom ladder inherits both the HUD scaling and the blended ZORI baseline rather than measuring advertised rents by bedroom.","Redfin tracks for-sale/resale conditions only. Changes in sold price, marketing time, or supply do not establish rental transaction terms, tenant demand, property expenses, or conditions at a particular address."],"qa":[{"a":"The common label permits a matched geographic comparison, but it does not erase the distinction. A Census ZCTA is a statistical area and a USPS delivery ZIP is a delivery geography. The ACS result therefore gives survey context for the matched ZCTA, not a direct enumeration of every ZIP-address household.","q":"Why are the ZCTA and ZIP treated as related but separate?"},{"a":"It does not. The one-, three-, and five-year changes, return variability, drawdown, coverage, and discovery ranks summarize observed ZORI history through the supplied endpoint. They describe the past cooling path and the smoothness of the series, but they cannot predict future asking rents, sale prices, or an individual lease result.","q":"Does the recent rent decline forecast future asking rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are produced by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. Because HUD is an administrative standard and ZORI blends rental types, the output is a modelled ZIP estimate. It does not observe advertised bedroom rents, unit conditions, utilities, lease terms, or an address-specific quote.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates measured asking rents?"},{"a":"It is annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price from a separate direct ZIP resale observation. It places two aggregate readings on a common screening scale, but it omits property traits, operating costs, financing, lease terms, and realized rental transactions. It therefore does not describe the economics of any particular property.","q":"What does the rent-price screening ratio represent?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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