Current Zillow ZORI for ZIP 85339 is $2,133, down 0.28% from the same month a year earlier. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-level rent quote or a measure of every available unit. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. For wider rental context, Phoenix city has a $1,569 rent measure, Maricopa County has a $1,729 rent measure, and the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro has a $1,733 rent measure; each is a broader geographic context rather than a ZIP substitute. The immediate tension is that this ZIP’s asking-rent index remains above each comparator while its latest direction is slightly negative.
The cooling label is supported by the backward-looking Zillow history, not by a forecast. Exact same-month annualized ZORI change was negative 0.28% over one year, but positive 0.77% over three years and positive 3.55% over five years. Thus, the latest decline breaks from the longer upward path rather than confirming it. The history has full coverage. Monthly changes produced 2.66% annualized variability, which means a single current index reading deserves more caution than a perfectly steady series would. Its maximum peak-to-trough drawdown was 1.21%, a comparatively limited historical setback. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,389 for momentum, 996 for stability, and 2,048 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. Those ranks describe past measurements only.
The ACS comparison belongs to a different evidence universe. In the matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent was $2,120 with a $148 margin of error; it covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, rather than current asking rents. Zillow’s $2,133 asking-rent index is only 0.61% above that survey median, an unusually close cross-source reading that still does not make the measures interchangeable. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The same ACS source reports median household income of $110,602. Applying the structural 30% screen arithmetically to the current asking-rent index produces required annual income of $85,320, or 23.1% of reported median household income. This is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule.
Bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder produces monthly estimates of $1,692 for a studio, $1,833 for one bedroom, $2,133 for two bedrooms, $2,847 for three bedrooms, and $3,155 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; the local two-bedroom HUD standard is $2,420. The modelled two-bedroom estimate is therefore 88.1% of that HUD standard. This ladder is useful for keeping bedroom sizing internally consistent with the ZIP index, but it cannot identify a property’s advertised rent, utility treatment, condition, availability, or lease terms.
The ZCTA housing profile is owner-heavy and predominantly single-family, which limits how directly an aggregate blended rent index can be read as an apartment-market signal. Of 16,154 housing units, 433 were vacant, a 2.68% vacancy rate. Renters represented 18.0% of occupied homes, while 15,896 units were single-family structures. ACS counted 1,121 renter households spending at least 30% of income on gross rent, equal to 39.6% of renter households. That burden measure is a survey estimate for occupied renter homes, not proof that any specific available unit is affordable or unaffordable. Likewise, the aggregate vacancy count includes more than rentals and cannot establish whether a particular home is available, competitive, or priced at the ZIP index.
Direct ZIP resale evidence presents a related but separate cooling signal. In Redfin’s rolling-three-month for-sale observation, the median sold price was $459,886, down 2.15% year over year. There were 203 homes sold, median marketing time was 50 days, inventory was 254 homes, and months of supply stood at 3.8. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.81%, while 21.34% of sales closed above list price. These are resale-market observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price equals a 5.57% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The resale price decline and below-list average reinforce the recent rent cooling direction, though the recorded sales activity prevents either source from being read as a no-activity market.
Read together, the evidence does not support treating one current rent number as a complete property conclusion. ZIP asking rent exceeds the named Phoenix city, Maricopa County, and metro context measures, yet it is nearly aligned with the ZCTA’s occupied-home gross-rent median. The longer rent history remains positive despite the latest decline, while the direct resale data also show softer annual pricing and marketing that is not uniformly fast. The low historical drawdown tempers the severity of the rent pullback, but the measured monthly variability argues against overconfidence in a single index snapshot. Cross-source agreement on broad level should therefore be separated from agreement on property type, bedroom count, utilities, tenant profile, or transaction timing.
The main limits are geographic matching, source definition, and aggregation. ZORI reflects observed asking rents across rental types; ACS reflects surveyed occupied renter homes; HUD supplies an administrative standard; and Redfin tracks completed ZIP resale activity. Property-level checks needed to test this aggregate screen include confirming that an address sits inside the relevant ZIP geography, matching bedroom count to the modelled ladder, reviewing current advertised rents and included utilities, checking active availability and lease terms, and comparing the specific home’s list and sale history with the resale observation. The useful closing question is not whether the ZIP index alone determines a unit’s rent, but whether those property facts remain consistent with the separate rent, affordability, stock, and resale measures reported here.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI was $2,133 and declined 0.28% over the latest same-month year. That direction differs from the positive three-year and five-year annualized changes of 0.77% and 3.55%. History therefore documents a recent break from the longer upward path, not an established forward outlook. Limited drawdown history does not eliminate the need to treat the current index as an aggregate reading.","title":"Recent rent cooling interrupts a longer gain path"},{"body":"The Zillow asking-rent index is only 0.61% above the matched ZCTA ACS median gross rent, creating close level alignment across two different sources. Zillow measures typical observed asking rents blended across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The proximity is informative, but it does not turn either measure into a property-specific comparable.","title":"Asking rent and ACS gross rent are close but distinct"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They provide internally consistent estimates for bedroom sizing, but HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard and the output is not measured bedroom rent. A specific unit can differ because of its actual bedroom configuration, included utilities, condition, availability, and lease structure.","title":"The bedroom ladder is a model, not observed unit pricing"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation showed a year-over-year decline in median sold price, an average sale-to-list ratio below parity, and a minority of sales above list price. Those for-sale signals align directionally with the latest rent decline, while homes still sold and supply remained finite. The evidence is a resale-market reading, not evidence about rental transactions or property economics.","title":"Resale softness aligns with, but does not explain, rent cooling"}],"risks":["A blended ZIP asking-rent index can obscure differences among single-family rentals, apartments, bedroom counts, utility packages, condition, availability, and lease terms. It should not be treated as a direct quote for a particular property.","ACS gross-rent, renter-share, vacancy, and rent-burden figures are ZCTA five-year survey estimates with published uncertainty. The ZCTA is statistical geography, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP.","The HUD ladder supplies administrative bedroom-specific standards and may be ZIP SAFMR or county-derived. Modelled bedroom estimates inherit that structure and are not observed asking rents for available units.","Redfin measures completed for-sale activity in a rolling-three-month ZIP observation. The rent-to-price screen combines separate sources and cannot establish cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or transaction-specific economics."],"qa":[{"a":"They answer different questions. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. Their close levels provide cross-source context, but neither source converts into a lease quote or property-specific rent comparable.","q":"Why are Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent both included if they are not the same measure?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI level using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than asking rent. The modelled output is useful for consistent bedroom sizing, but it does not observe any particular unit, listing, utility package, or lease.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual rents for studios through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"It is a cross-source screening ratio calculated by dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s direct ZIP median sold price. It can help describe the relationship between an aggregate asking-rent index and an aggregate resale-price observation. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or measure of operating expenses.","q":"What does the annualized ZORI-to-sale-price ratio show?"},{"a":"No. The required-income figure is only arithmetic based on a 30% screen and is not advice or an applicant qualification rule. ACS rent burden describes surveyed occupied renter households, while vacancy is an aggregate housing-stock measure that includes more than rental availability. A specific unit requires confirmation of rent, utilities, lease terms, availability, and applicant circumstances.","q":"Do the affordability, burden, and vacancy statistics prove whether a specific rental is affordable or available?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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