The initial tension in ZIP 85345 is a current asking-rent index that sits above the matched survey rent and above the area’s median-income screen, while the resale evidence is softer. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI was $1,857 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a direct count of every available unit. For wider context only, Peoria city’s rent context is $1,876, Maricopa County’s context is $1,729, and the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro context is $1,733; those broader geographies are not substitutes for this ZIP reading. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The backward-looking Zillow history points to continued growth with moderation from its longer path. Exact same-month annualized change was 1.7% over one year, 1.2% over three years, and 3.1% over five years. Thus, the recent direction confirms a positive rent trend, but it breaks from the faster pace seen across the full five-year comparison. Month-to-month rent-index movement has been relatively contained, with annualized monthly-return variability of 2.4%, which supports more confidence in the present ZORI snapshot than a highly erratic series would. The largest historical peak-to-trough decline was 2.0%, however, so even this stable record included reversals. Coverage was 100%. Among history-eligible ZIPs, transparent discovery ranks were 1,774 for momentum, 553 for stability, and 1,157 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are historical measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Different rent sources answer different questions. The ACS 2024 five-year survey for the matched ZCTA reports median gross rent of $1,697, with a 90% margin of error of $73; it describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. That survey measure is 9.4% below current Zillow ZORI, a difference consistent with comparing a stock of occupied homes with an asking-rent index rather than like-for-like listings. HUD’s FY2026 FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its two-bedroom benchmark is $1,790. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,473 for a studio, $1,598 for one bedroom, $1,857 for two bedrooms, $2,479 for three bedrooms, and $2,749 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
The income and burden evidence makes the rent level more consequential than the moderate recent ZORI growth alone suggests. Applying the 30% required-income screen to the current monthly index produces annual income of $74,280. The ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $67,380, so the simple arithmetic pairing places the index at 33.1% of that income. This is neither affordability advice nor an applicant qualification rule, and it does not establish any household’s actual rent payment. The ACS burden measure provides a separate signal: 4,151 of 7,566 renter households, or 54.9%, reported spending at least the stated burden threshold on rent. Burden describes surveyed households, not a particular available unit, lease, or tenant.
The matched ZCTA had 24,153 housing units, with a 6.6% overall vacancy rate. Rent-oriented vacancies numbered 802, but that count does not prove immediate availability, condition, price, or suitability for any individual renter. Renter-occupied homes represented 33.5% of occupied units, indicating that owner occupancy remained the larger tenure segment in this survey geography. Housing stock was concentrated in single-family structures, at 16,839 units, while large multifamily structures accounted for 2,319 units. These ACS figures describe a five-year survey profile of the ZCTA, not a real-time inventory feed. They therefore add useful structural context to ZORI but cannot identify the current mix, quality, or concession terms of rentals being marketed.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation belongs solely to the for-sale market. Median sold price was $373,416, down 1.7% year over year. The ZIP recorded 162 homes sold, and median marketing time was 51 days. Inventory also stood at 162 homes, with 3.0 months of supply. Sale-to-list evidence was less than full list-price realization on average, at 98.7%, while 17.1% of sales closed above list. These are resale liquidity and pricing signals for homes that sold in the ZIP; they are not rental transactions, rental comparables, property operating statements, or evidence about a specific rental home.
The contrast between the positive ZORI history and the year-over-year decline in median sold price is the principal cross-market tension. Rent evidence shows a still-rising asking-rent index, yet the resale observation shows lower sold prices and an average sale below list. The burden and required-income screen add another layer: a rent index can remain positive while still pressing against the local median-income reference. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 6.0% cross-source screening ratio. It is only a screening ratio and must not be called a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. It omits operating costs, financing, taxes, insurance, vacancy experience, property condition, and the mismatch between index rent and a particular home.
Decision use requires keeping these boundaries intact. Zillow supplies the current ZIP asking-rent index and its history; ACS supplies survey-based household, stock, vacancy, gross-rent, and burden context; HUD supplies administrative bedroom standards; and Redfin supplies direct ZIP resale observations. City, county, and metro figures remain context only. A property-level review would need the actual delivery ZIP, bedroom count, unit type, current asking rent, included utilities, lease term, concessions, availability date, and condition before comparing a listing with the modelled ladder. For a purchase comparison, address-specific sale evidence and property costs would also be necessary. No series here forecasts rent, resale pricing, tenant demand, or outcomes for a specific property.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s ZIP asking-rent index increased over each same-month comparison period, but the one-year pace exceeded the three-year pace and trailed the five-year pace. The historical series also showed relatively low monthly variability and a limited maximum drawdown. Together, those backward-looking signals support a stable-growth classification while still showing that the recent pace is slower than the longer-run trend.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but slower than the long run"},{"body":"The current ZORI-based required-income screen exceeds the ZCTA median household income, and the ACS survey reports that a majority of renter households met the rent-burden threshold. These are population-level and arithmetic indicators, not tenant-level outcomes. They nevertheless create a meaningful tension with the modestly positive current asking-rent trend.","title":"Affordability signals are tighter than the rent trend alone suggests"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a year-over-year decline in median sold price, average sale-to-list realization below list, and measurable marketing time. That for-sale evidence does not invalidate the rent index, because the two sources observe different markets. It does challenge any simple conclusion that current asking-rent strength and resale conditions are moving together.","title":"Resale pricing does not mirror the rent-index direction"},{"body":"The bedroom ladder uses the local HUD administrative standards to scale the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index. It is useful for keeping bedroom comparisons internally consistent, but it does not measure rents actually advertised or leased for studios through four-bedroom homes. Unit type, condition, utilities, concessions, and lease structure can materially differ from the modelled figures.","title":"Bedroom figures are a HUD-scaled model, not observed rents"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD bedroom standards each use different populations, timing, and definitions. Treating them as interchangeable rent comparables could overstate precision or obscure included-utility and occupancy differences.","The required-income calculation uses a ZIP-wide asking-rent index and median household income, while burden results come from surveyed renter households. Neither measure determines whether a particular applicant can afford a particular listed unit.","The historical rent record is complete and comparatively stable, but it remains backward-looking. A low-volatility index can still fail to represent new construction, lease concessions, unit mix changes, or property-specific asking rents.","Redfin resale signals reflect homes that sold in the rolling three-month ZIP observation, not rental transactions or operating economics. Median sale price and sale-to-list outcomes cannot establish income, expenses, or returns for an individual property."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference can reflect source definitions, survey timing, occupied versus asking-rent populations, and the mix of rental homes represented.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP-wide ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR values are administrative standards, not asking rents, and the resulting bedroom estimates should not be treated as measured listing or lease rents.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed ZIP rents?"},{"a":"The history shows positive same-month growth across the measured periods, low annualized monthly-return variability, a limited maximum drawdown, and complete coverage. That makes the current index less dependent on a single erratic month than a volatile series would be. It does not make the reading predictive or property-specific.","q":"What does the history say about confidence in the current asking-rent snapshot?"},{"a":"It adds a separate view of direct ZIP for-sale liquidity and pricing through median sold price, year-over-year price movement, sales volume, days on market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list results. Because it is a resale observation rather than rental evidence, it is useful for identifying tension with rent data but cannot function as a rental comparable or yield calculation.","q":"What does the Redfin resale observation add to the rental analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 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