The central decision question for 85364 is whether a ZIP-wide asking-rent signal can serve a household seeking a particular unit, given that its mix of unit types and occupied-home evidence tell different stories. This five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZORI for the ZIP is $1,261 per month, after a 3.1% year-over-year increase. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it gives a current market-level benchmark rather than the advertised amount, availability, utility treatment, or terms of a particular property. The key decision use is to distinguish that index from household and bedroom-specific measures before comparing any listing.
Household data put the index in a different decision frame. The ZCTA median household income is $57,874, a survey statistic for all covered households rather than an income statement for any applicant. Of 11,417 renter-occupied units, renters represent 40.1% of occupied homes. ACS records 5,398 renter households spending at least 30% of income on gross rent, or 47.3% of renter households; that is observed burden among occupied renter homes, not proof of burden for a particular available unit. A simple 30% screen converts the current $1,261 monthly index to $50,440 of annual income, which is 87.2% of the ZCTA median household income. Annualizing the index against that all-household median produces 26.1%, but this arithmetic comparison does not align an applicant, a utility package, or a lease with the ACS burden measure. The required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule.
The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a median gross rent of $979, with a $37 margin of error. This is a survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; it is not a current asking-rent index. The $282 difference means the June Zillow figure stands 28.8% above this ACS median, but the measures differ in timing, population, and rent concept. It should not be read as a change in rents on the same homes. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom fair market rent is $1,382; the ZIP ZORI is 8.8% below it. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent observation, so its position beside ZORI is a benchmark comparison rather than a merged market measure.
The bedroom ladder offers a way to translate the overall index into size-specific reference points, but not to manufacture observed bedroom rents. Using the local HUD ladder, the modelled ZIP estimates are $954 for a studio, $961 for one bedroom, $1,261 for two bedrooms, $1,726 for three bedrooms, and $2,115 for four bedrooms. The calculation preserves ZORI’s 91.2% relationship to the local HUD two-bedroom standard and scales that relationship across the local HUD bedroom ladder. Consequently, each figure is a modelled estimate, never a measured bedroom rent, lease average, or advertised listing. The comparatively narrow studio-to-one-bedroom step and the larger upper-bedroom steps arise from the applied HUD ladder; they do not establish actual availability, a unit premium, or the rent of a specific property.
Stock and vacancy classifications provide a separate composition check. The matched ZCTA contains 32,534 housing units, of which 28,453 are occupied and 4,081 are vacant, a 12.5% vacancy rate. Seasonal vacancies account for 1,888 units, or 46.3% of vacancies, while 893 units are classified as vacant for rent, or 21.9%. The housing stock includes 19,385 single-family units and 1,884 large multifamily units. These are area-wide ACS categories rather than a live inventory: they do not show which homes are currently advertised, when a vacancy will be available, or whether any vacant-for-rent unit matches a household’s bedroom, price, condition, or lease needs. Seasonal use within the vacancy total also means that the overall rate cannot be treated as the active rental listing rate.
Broader geographies should remain context, not substitutes for the ZIP or ZCTA. The Yuma city scope reports a rent context of $1,473, the Yuma County scope reports $1,469, and the Yuma, AZ metro scope reports $1,469; each is higher than the ZIP ZORI. In the city scope, renter share is lower while median gross rent and the observed share of renters above the burden threshold are higher than in the ZCTA; its vacancy rate is slightly lower. In the county scope, renter share is lower, vacancy is higher, and both median gross rent and observed burden are higher than in the ZCTA. The metro scope also has a higher rent-to-income context measure and a higher median household income than the ZCTA. These comparisons describe wider scopes and mixed indicator types; they cannot substitute for ZIP-level asking evidence, ZCTA household evidence, or a property-level price.
Limits matter because the ZIP asking index, ZCTA survey, HUD benchmark, and broader contexts do not measure the same homes, dates, or rent definitions. ZORI is a blended index rather than a transaction or lease file; ACS is a multiyear survey with sampling uncertainty; and the HUD ladder may be ZIP SAFMR or county-derived, depending on the local program source. The ZCTA boundary is statistical rather than a USPS delivery geography. For any property-level comparison, check its current advertised monthly rent, exact bedroom count, property type, availability date, included and required utilities, recurring mandatory charges, lease term, concessions, and address geography. Then compare the listing’s own asking terms with the relevant benchmark without relabeling a modelled bedroom estimate, an ACS gross-rent median, or an HUD standard as that unit’s rent. No source here confirms a specific unit’s price or affordability.
","findings":[{"body":"At the ZIP market level, Zillow’s current index represents a typical observed asking-rent signal blended across rental types. It is useful as an overall asking benchmark, but it does not identify the advertised price, availability, utilities, bedroom count, or property condition of an individual home. The reported annual change describes the index, not every listing.","title":"ZORI is an asking-rent index, not a lease quote"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent summarizes occupied renter households over five years and includes selected utilities, while Zillow is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across types. HUD FMR/SAFMR provides an administrative standard set by bedroom size. Differences among these figures can frame comparison, but they do not identify a common set of homes or a single rent definition.","title":"ACS and HUD answer different rent questions"},{"body":"The ZIP bedroom sequence is created by applying the ZIP-wide ZORI relationship to the local HUD bedroom ladder. It provides a consistent modelled set of studio-through-four-bedroom reference points. It is not a survey of bedroom rents, a count of listings, or an evidence-based claim about a particular unit’s rent, condition, or availability.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled estimates"},{"body":"Vacancy categories are area-wide ACS classifications, not a live feed of rental listings. Seasonal and for-rent vacancies answer different composition questions, and their combined total cannot show how many suitable homes are available now. Structure counts similarly describe the ZCTA stock, while advertised price, usable bedroom count, utilities, timing, and lease terms remain property-specific facts.","title":"Vacancy requires composition review"}],"risks":["The ZIP label and ZCTA share a code but have differing geographic purposes. A property’s USPS delivery ZIP and its statistical-area inclusion should be verified rather than assumed from the market label.","An advertised unit may have a different utility package, recurring charge structure, bedroom count, or effective price after concessions than the index, gross-rent statistic, or HUD benchmark uses.","The annual income screen uses an index and a fixed share of income. It omits applicant income variability, household size, debts, assistance, credit, and owner-specific qualification policies, so it cannot determine eligibility.","Area-wide vacancy and renter-burden figures summarize classifications or occupied households. They cannot confirm that a currently advertised property is vacant, affordable to a particular household, or representative of area-wide conditions."],"qa":[{"a":"In this report, ZORI is Zillow’s ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index across a blended set of rental types. It supplies monthly market context at the stated date. It is not a completed lease price, a vacancy count, or evidence that a particular apartment, house, studio, or advertised unit asks that amount.","q":"What does ZORI represent here?"},{"a":"ACS uses a matched ZCTA and a five-year survey of occupied renter homes. Its median gross rent includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is a more current asking-rent index. A difference can reflect distinct observation periods, populations, and definitions; the packet does not establish a trend, causation, or a price difference for the same properties.","q":"Why does ACS median gross rent differ from Zillow’s asking-rent index?"},{"a":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates calculated by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD supplies an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than measured asking rents. Neither input observes a particular unit’s rent or availability, so the results remain modelled reference points and should not be called measured bedroom rents.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents?"},{"a":"At property level, the relevant checks are the current advertised monthly amount, bedroom count, property type, included utilities, mandatory recurring charges, availability date, concessions, lease term, and address geography. Those listing facts should be kept separate from the ZIP index, ACS gross-rent statistic, HUD administrative standard, and city, county, or metro context.","q":"What property-level facts remain necessary?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1024.506179},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1056.938939},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1047.41735},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1062.697322},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1093.358124},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1107.988614},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1134.446595},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1126.282431},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1138.332296},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1112.788508},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1108.827371},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1104.322657},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1117.508404},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1141.874929},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1157.942373},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1165.208667},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1161.24241},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1157.081663},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1166.425785},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1159.351887},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1171.128793},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1168.672226},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1182.823726},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1180.681247},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1171.031904},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1161.317846},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1169.851834},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1173.590403},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1179.676877},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1182.443039},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1191.278439},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1199.086087},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1200.17159},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1208.083021},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1209.429558},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1209.839737},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1213.655619},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1224.539677},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1218.279548},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1219.166905},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1220.517658},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1223.043341},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1215.860232},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1222.085628},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1221.187268},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1227.542135},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1228.26971},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1236.788347},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1242.777666},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1241.731056},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1247.161533},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1250.86989},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1255.064951},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1260.900251}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":54,"firstPeriod":"2021-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":55,"coverageRatio":0.9818181818181818,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1223.043341,"endRent":1260.900251,"change":0.030953040445032,"cagr":0.030953040445032},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1157.081663,"endRent":1260.900251,"change":0.08972451238301238,"cagr":0.02905575712368469}},"maxDrawdown":-0.029876723272727168,"annualizedVolatility":0.030373302877408394,"consecutiveReturnCount":52}}