At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow's ZIP-level ZORI places the typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, at $1,800 per month in 85382. It is 1.4% above its level one year earlier, but the exact same-month path is -0.8% annualized over three years and +1.8% annualized over five years. The recent positive direction breaks from the negative intermediate path while aligning in sign with the broader gain. This is a current asking-rent index rather than a lease quote for any specific dwelling, so it is a market snapshot rather than a promise about a unit.
History supplies 138 monthly observations with 100% coverage through the stated endpoint, making the comparisons consistently same-month rather than a partial-series inference. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.6%, showing that changes around the trend have occurred and limiting confidence in treating one current reading as an unchanging level. The largest peak-to-trough drawdown was 4.7%, a separate backward-looking indication that the series has experienced declines. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,140 for momentum, 809 for stability, and 1,712 for balanced performance; lower ranks are higher. These ranks are retrospective measurements, not forecasts, investment recommendations, or causal explanations.
The ACS 2024 five-year survey uses the matched Census ZCTA, where a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. It reports a $1,939 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities. The current ZORI reading is 7.2% below that survey median, but the two are not interchangeable: ZORI is an observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS summarizes occupied homes across a multiyear survey. The difference is consequently a source-definition contrast, not evidence that any listed rental is underpriced or that a household's present expense has changed by that amount.
Bedroom figures are modelled estimates, generated by scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder rather than by measuring bedroom-specific asking rents. They are $1,428 for a studio, $1,546 for one bedroom, $1,800 for two bedrooms, $2,400 for three bedrooms, and $2,662 for four bedrooms. This ladder preserves the ZIP index as its base while making bedroom structure explicit. HUD FMR/SAFMR in FY2026 is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent, and should not be substituted for the modelled figures or used as proof of a lease price. Its role here is the scaling input, so the ladder describes a transparent estimate rather than a separate rental observation.
The affordability screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule: applying a 30% rent share to current monthly ZORI produces a required annual household income of $72,000. Against the ACS ZCTA median household income of $91,525, the asking-rent-to-income screen is 23.6%. This juxtaposes an index-derived rent with a survey income median; it does not show who can rent a particular home. ACS nevertheless estimates that 57.0% of renter homes were rent burdened at the reported threshold. That burden measure is a survey statistic and cannot establish the burden, occupancy, or financial position associated with any particular available unit.
ACS ZCTA housing data list 19,581 housing units and a 9.6% vacancy rate; most units are categorized as single-family rather than large multifamily structures. The vacancy measure covers the housing stock rather than confirmed unit availability, so it cannot prove that a particular rental is available or that it will remain vacant. As wider-context comparisons only, Peoria city context rent is about $1,876, Maricopa County context rent is $1,729, and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro context rent is $1,733. The ZIP reading is lower than the city context but above the county and metro contexts. Each is a broader geographic reference, not a ZIP rental comp, and should not be merged into the ZCTA or ZORI universe.
Redfin's direct rolling-three-month observation for this ZIP is resale evidence, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $439,901, down 6.9% year over year, while 181 homes sold and median marketing time was 51 days. Inventory stood at 200 homes and increased year over year, with 3.4 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 97.7%, and 5.7% of sales closed above list. Taken within the for-sale universe, the price decline, increased inventory, sale volume, and marketing measures describe resale liquidity and negotiation signals; they neither measure rent collection nor provide a rental comparable. The resale picture therefore challenges any simple reading of the recent rent uptick as a uniform strengthening across housing measures.
Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by the median sold price creates a 4.9% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or a measure of property economics. The contrast between the rent index's recent rise and resale's falling prices and added inventory prevents treating rent and income arithmetic as confirmation from resale; it is a tension, not a causal finding. Property-level review should verify the actual bedroom count against the modelled bracket, current asking rent, selected-utility treatment, lease timing, occupancy and availability, and whether any sale evidence pertains to the same property. Does the specific unit match these separate data definitions closely enough for a valid comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow's June reading places the ZIP's typical observed asking-rent index at $1,800. The latest same-month gain is positive, although the intermediate history remained negative while the longer history rose. Full series coverage makes the history continuous, but past variability and drawdown mean the current index is best read as a point-in-time asking-rent indicator rather than a durable trend or projection.","title":"Current rent direction breaks from the intermediate path"},{"body":"ACS and HUD are not rent comps for the Zillow index. The matched ZCTA ACS figure is a multiyear survey of occupied renter homes, with selected utilities, while HUD's bedroom standards are administrative. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures in this report are modelled by applying HUD's local ladder to ZORI. They organize a consistent screen, but are not measured bedroom asking rents.","title":"ACS, HUD, and ZORI answer different questions"},{"body":"The income screen indicates the stated monthly index takes a smaller share of the ZCTA median income than the 30% arithmetic threshold. Yet a majority of survey renter homes are burdened at that threshold. Housing data also show a vacancy measure covering multiple vacancy statuses. None of those aggregates identifies affordability, occupancy, or availability for a particular unit.","title":"Income arithmetic and renter burden are mixed aggregate signals"},{"body":"Redfin's ZIP resale results show a price decline alongside greater inventory and measurable sales activity, with average sales closing below list. That for-sale evidence challenges an uncomplicated interpretation of the latest asking-rent increase. The annualized-rent-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screening ratio: it excludes property-level costs, financing, condition, and any claim about income, return, or value.","title":"Resale conditions challenge a simple rent-strength narrative"}],"risks":["The Zillow index blends rental types and reports a typical observed asking-rent level. A particular home can differ by bedroom count, utility treatment, lease timing, condition, and availability, none of which the index certifies.","The ACS figure comes from a matched ZCTA rather than a USPS delivery ZIP and summarizes occupied renter homes over five years. Its gross-rent definition includes selected utilities, making direct comparison with current asking rent incomplete.","HUD standards and the derived bedroom ladder are administrative and modelled, respectively. They do not measure current bedroom-specific market asking rents, so they cannot validate a quote, lease renewal, or the availability of an individual unit.","Redfin resale metrics track for-sale transactions and listings, not rental transactions. The rent-to-price screen omits property-level costs and timing, and cannot be interpreted as a cap rate, return, yield, or valuation conclusion."],"qa":[{"a":"Use Zillow ZORI when the question is the current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index. Use ACS median gross rent to understand the matched ZCTA's occupied renter homes in a five-year survey that includes selected utilities. They answer related but different questions, so neither should replace the other.","q":"Which rent figure represents current ZIP asking-rent conditions?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled estimates: ZIP ZORI is scaled with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are internally consistent estimates tied to that method. HUD FMR/SAFMR itself is an administrative standard, not an asking-rent observation, and the results should never be treated as measured bedroom rents.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed market rents?"},{"a":"No. The stated income figure comes from applying a 30% share to the monthly ZORI and annualizing the result. It is not underwriting advice, a household budget, or a qualification rule. The ACS burden statistic describes renter homes in aggregate and cannot identify the affordability or payment history of an applicant or specific home.","q":"Does the required-income screen determine whether a household qualifies?"},{"a":"Redfin provides direct ZIP resale observations over a rolling period: price, sales, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list measures. These describe for-sale liquidity and negotiation outcomes, not rental deals. Combining annual ZORI with median sold price creates only a cross-source screen and does not incorporate property expenses, lease terms, or unit characteristics.","q":"What does the Redfin evidence add to the rental analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1050.542666},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1051.677415},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1053.536648},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1050.105932},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1057.062066},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1055.063144},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1064.970938},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1061.801013},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1062.096316},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1067.483899},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1070.55352},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1075.031193},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1072.085131},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1077.230332},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1087.713048},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1097.905923},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1094.666039},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1100.22536},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1099.889401},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1114.973105},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1120.240931},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1131.413149},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1129.494148},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1130.866731},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1134.221339},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1137.114421},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1142.88227},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1143.758034},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1155.761851},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1162.845959},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1170.067197},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1164.546953},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1165.903133},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1159.086193},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1162.44589},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1166.331792},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1175.145663},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1187.013381},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1193.561292},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1197.939643},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1202.307779},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1200.515197},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1207.803061},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1226.358945},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1239.682279},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1252.326328},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1251.404917},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1258.701863},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1263.741407},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1275.18717},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1280.335434},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1290.390711},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1297.731468},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1311.35991},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1318.844656},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1320.933461},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1326.071154},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1334.791322},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1352.220797},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1362.320129},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1371.58658},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1374.071542},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1363.897916},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1347.70264},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1342.391023},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1351.940704},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1376.634396},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1402.845171},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1417.575315},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1446.736924},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1451.199442},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1467.10266},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1477.472548},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1502.386446},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1535.287363},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1557.623003},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1604.925224},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1644.941368},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1683.47115},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1703.722113},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1733.603127},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1760.323852},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1778.346977},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1801.827384},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1805.817838},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1822.40312},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1824.745264},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1853.160327},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1855.182352},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1856.492916},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1839.192688},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1834.224509},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1827.764955},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1820.359863},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1835.916866},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1834.123431},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1852.038728},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1844.43031},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1860.496447},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1852.840975},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1856.377418},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1846.445036},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1846.839259},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1846.885713},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1840.758165},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1823.697715},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1806.390909},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1798.583593},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1804.899835},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1811.365418},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1810.807774},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1818.724411},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1822.258612},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1823.337812},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1824.693044},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1814.920507},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1819.88781},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1824.994104},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1827.112449},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1821.670388},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1800.477957},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1799.662349},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1797.643776},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1792.860371},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1781.418357},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1775.097307},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1773.324455},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1778.084898},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1774.735121},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1776.506554},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1776.563522},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1781.252395},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1788.316371},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1785.460879},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1783.610417},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1784.429866},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1791.816164},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1799.790108}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1775.097307,"endRent":1799.790108,"change":0.013910674588162086,"cagr":0.013910674588162086},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1846.445036,"endRent":1799.790108,"change":-0.02526743395572173,"cagr":-0.008494429003239046},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1644.941368,"endRent":1799.790108,"change":0.0941363279034515,"cagr":0.018155912482534786}},"maxDrawdown":-0.04685415666370263,"annualizedVolatility":0.025589158795061913,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}