At ZIP 85383, the five-digit label functions as both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI was $2,317, down 1.88% from the same month a year earlier. At the same point, Redfin’s direct ZIP resale record showed its median sold price had risen 2.72% year over year. This split is the immediate decision tension: rental and for-sale measurements do not show one uniform direction. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a bedroom-specific lease observation or an occupied-home survey.
The backward-looking Zillow history puts the one-year movement in context. Exact same-month annualized change was -1.88% over one year and -0.80% over three years, versus +2.17% over five years. The current decline therefore confirms the intermediate cooling path, but it breaks from the positive net longer path. Monthly changes translate to 2.86% annualized variability, so a reader should place bounded, rather than absolute, confidence in a single current rent snapshot. The maximum drawdown, the largest observed peak-to-trough setback, was 3.36%, another reason not to treat the present index as a fixed quote. Coverage is 100% across 138 observations. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,754 for momentum, 1,359 for stability, and 2,556 for balanced performance, where lower ranks are higher. These are historical sorting measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Different source universes explain why current rent figures should not be pooled. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $2,355, with a reported $157 margin of error, for occupied renter homes and with selected utilities. That survey median is 1.6% above current ZORI, but this is not a contradiction: ACS measures occupied homes while ZORI measures typical asking rents. For wider context only, Peoria city’s context rent is $1,876, Maricopa County’s context rent is $1,729, and the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ metro context rent is $1,733; city, county, and metro measures are not ZIP substitutes. These wider-area values cannot become local lease comparables.
Bedroom detail must remain explicitly modelled. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,840 for a studio, $1,996 for one bedroom, $2,317 for two bedrooms, $3,089 for three bedrooms, and $3,428 for four bedrooms. They are not measured bedroom rents and cannot establish the asking price of a particular unit. The local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder’s two-bedroom standard is $2,670. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, while the estimates above use its ladder only to distribute the ZIP-wide ZORI across bedroom sizes. The distinction matters where property type, lease terms, and utilities differ.
The 30% required-income screen converts the current ZORI to $92,680 of annual income, compared with a ZCTA median household income of $145,546; the arithmetic asking-rent-to-income measure is 19.1%. This is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule. It also does not erase the ACS burden result: 1,271 of 2,364 renter households, or 53.8%, were at or above the burden threshold in the survey. That is a population-level survey statistic, not proof that any particular household or unit is burdened. The ZCTA has 26,549 housing units, with a housing stock dominated by single-family units and a limited large-multifamily component. Its aggregate vacancy rate is 4.5%, and 266 units are classified vacant for rent; renters account for 9.3% of occupied units. Neither vacancy measure proves current availability, condition, or concession terms for a specific rental.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation supplies the for-sale details and remains separate from rental evidence. Its median sold price was $654,852. The observation records 442 homes sold with a median 68 days on market, 541 homes of inventory, and 3.7 months of supply. Months of supply is the reported inventory relative to the observed sales pace; it is not apartment vacancy or a count of rentals available. Average sale-to-list was 98.03%, 6.75% of sales closed above list, and 19.26% went off market within two weeks. Those are direct ZIP resale pricing, liquidity, marketing, inventory, and sale-to-list signals only; they cannot become rental comparables or property economics.
The resale gain challenges any broad claim that all housing is cooling, while the negative Zillow rent history still challenges a simple rising-rent story. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price equals a 4.25% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The affordability screen is also two-sided: the median-income arithmetic looks less strained than the burden share observed among renter households, and the ZORI-ACS gap is narrow but based on unlike populations. The proper reading is source separation rather than an inference about a particular tenant, building, or transaction.
Several limitations define the decision boundary. ZORI is an index of blended asking rents; ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey of occupied renter homes, with gross rent including selected utilities; and HUD standards are administrative. The ZCTA match is statistical rather than USPS delivery geography. History is complete for the recorded period but only backward-looking, and Redfin is a rolling resale observation rather than a rental ledger. A property-level file would need the current advertised ask, bedroom count, rental type, lease duration, concessions, tenant-paid utilities, and actual availability checked directly. For a sale comparison, it would also need the individual list price, closed price, marketing record, and current status verified. The unresolved question is whether those property terms resemble the relevant source universe enough for the ZIP screen to be informative.
","findings":[{"body":"Rent history is cooling but not uniformly negative. The one-year and three-year same-month measures are below zero, whereas the five-year measure remains positive. Complete observation coverage makes the described historical series more dependable as a record, but its measured variability and drawdown mean the current ZORI is an index snapshot, not a promised future asking rent.","title":"Cooling rent history, but not a uniformly negative longer path"},{"body":"The median-income screen and renter burden answer different questions. Applying the arithmetic screen to ZIP ZORI produces an area-level affordability reference, while ACS burden reports survey outcomes among occupied renter households. A favorable relationship to median household income cannot negate a high burden share, and the burden statistic cannot identify the finances or rent terms of a particular household.","title":"Median-income screen and renter burden answer different questions"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling ZIP resale record offers a for-sale counterpoint to rental cooling, with year-over-year median sale-price growth alongside a declining asking-rent index. Sales volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list measures describe resale liquidity and negotiation signals only. They cannot be used as rental transactions, lease comparables, or proof of property-level economics.","title":"Resale evidence counters a single-direction market reading"},{"body":"The bedroom ladder starts with the ZIP-wide ZORI and uses proportions from the local HUD ladder to create modelled monthly estimates. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not observed asking rent. Consequently, the estimates are useful for a consistent ZIP-wide size screen but do not measure actual studio, one-bedroom, or larger-unit rents.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled from HUD proportions"}],"risks":["The ZCTA-to-ZIP match is a statistical approximation rather than a USPS delivery boundary, so ACS household, stock, vacancy, and burden summaries may not map exactly to every rental marketed under the ZIP.","ZORI blends rental types into a typical asking-rent index, meaning changes can describe the index without proving that every active listing, lease renewal, bedroom size, or property type changed similarly.","ACS rent burden and vacancy figures are survey-based area aggregates for occupied households and housing units. They cannot establish a particular renter’s payment stress, a unit’s availability, or current concession terms.","The annualized ZORI-to-sale-price figure joins separate rental and resale sources. It excludes operating costs, financing, taxes, property condition, and transaction detail, so it cannot describe actual property returns."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI captures a typical observed asking-rent index at the ZIP market level and blends rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matching statistical ZCTA, and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. Different timing, population, and construction make their values complementary context rather than interchangeable rent observations.","q":"Why do Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent differ?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates. The calculation starts with the ZIP-wide ZORI and applies proportions from the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, not observed asking rent, so the results do not measure bedroom rents or verify the asking price of any specified property.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual observed rents?"},{"a":"The Redfin figures describe direct ZIP for-sale and resale activity during a rolling three-month window. Price, sales volume, marketing days, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list measures inform that resale observation only. They do not describe rental transactions, establish rents, or convert the ZORI-to-price screen into income from property.","q":"What do the Redfin resale figures describe?"},{"a":"No. The screen annualizes current ZIP ZORI and applies the stated threshold, then compares the resulting income figure with area median household income. It is arithmetic rather than advice or an applicant test. ACS rent burden is separately a survey outcome among occupied renter households and cannot adjudicate affordability for a specific available unit.","q":"Does the required-income screen determine whether a renter qualifies?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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