At June 2026, Zillow ZIP 85704 ZORI was $1,431, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The exact same-month annualized changes were 1.05% over one year, 0.52% over three years, and 3.80% over five years. The positive latest direction confirms the longer path, but its pace exceeds the three-year figure and trails the five-year figure, so it does not reproduce either long-run speed. The supplied direct-Zillow history is classified high variability: it has 100% coverage, annualized monthly-return variability of 3.76%, and a maximum drawdown of -2.68%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,084 for momentum, 2,456 for stability, and 2,593 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks higher. Those backward-looking measurements are not forecasts or investment recommendations; the variability means a current rent snapshot deserves less confidence than a steadier historical path would support.
The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,561, with a $67 margin of error, for occupied renter homes and included selected utilities. That survey median was 8.3% above ZORI, but neither is a second quote for the same rental: ZORI represents typical observed asking rents, while ACS describes surveyed occupants. The FY2026 HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard was $1,650. It is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, placing ZORI 13.3% below it. These source-universe differences preclude a like-for-like conclusion about any specific property.
Bedroom detail is created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder, rather than by separately observing listings. The resulting monthly modelled estimates are $989 for a studio, $1,101 for a one-bedroom, $1,431 for a two-bedroom, $1,986 for a three-bedroom, and $2,290 for a four-bedroom. The middle estimate matches the ZIP index by construction. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: they preserve the HUD ladder’s relative bedroom structure but cannot show actual availability, utility treatment, property type, lease terms, or an advertised rent at any bedroom count. Their appropriate role is a consistent ZIP-wide comparison frame, not proof of what a particular unit should command.
At a 30% required-income screen, annualizing the current index produces $57,240 in annual income. That screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS ZCTA median household income was $81,696, with a $5,963 margin of error, and the asking-rent-to-income calculation was 21.0%. This compares a broad asking-rent index with a household-income median; it does not state what any renter pays. Separately, ACS reported 3,378 of 7,010 renter households as burdened at the source threshold, or 48.2%, with a $449 margin of error on the burdened count. That burden measure describes surveyed occupied renter households and cannot prove affordability, costs, or qualification for a particular unit.
Census ZCTA housing tables recorded 18,148 housing units, an overall vacancy rate of 8.2%, and a renter share of 42.1%. The structure tabulation contains more single-family units than large multifamily units, while the seasonal-vacancy category exceeds the vacant-for-rent category. Those patterns describe the area’s surveyed housing inventory and vacancy classifications, not the marketing status of a home. In particular, an all-housing vacancy rate does not show whether a vacant address is available now, offered for rent, suited to a renter’s bedroom need, or priced near the ZIP index. Vacancy and burden statistics remain area-level context rather than evidence about a specific listing.
As wider context only, Tucson city’s citywide context rent was $1,424.65, Pima County’s countywide context rent was $1,483, and the Tucson, AZ metro’s metro-wide context rent matched Pima County’s figure. The ZIP index falls between those wider values. Tucson city’s renter share was higher than the ZIP’s, whereas Pima County’s was lower; the ZIP vacancy rate sat between the city and county context rates. The metro apartment-vacancy measure covers apartments rather than the ZIP’s all-housing vacancy measure. These named city, county, and metro scopes provide comparison context only; they cannot redefine the ZIP market, reconcile the distinct source universes, or identify availability and lease terms at an individual listing.
Several limits remain material. ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index, ACS is a multi-year ZCTA survey with margins of error, and HUD is an administrative bedroom standard; none is a live property quote. Useful property-level checks are the address and applicable market geography, quoted rent, bedroom count, property type, included utilities, lease term, recurring and nonrecurring fees, available date, and active listing status. Those checks determine whether comparison with the broad index or the modelled ladder is meaningful. The historical series remains descriptive through its endpoint, not a forecast. Which verified listing-specific facts support a valid comparison with these ZIP-wide measures?
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP’s latest same-month increase is positive, so its direction agrees with the broader multi-year path. Its rate does not cleanly repeat that path, however: it is faster than the middle-horizon measure and slower than the longest-horizon measure. The supplied high-variability classification, return variability, and peak-to-trough decline make the current index a useful benchmark with limited listing-level precision.","title":"Slower recent gain within a variable history"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD standards answer different questions. ZORI summarizes typical observed asking rents across rental types. ACS summarizes occupied renter homes in a survey and includes selected utilities, while HUD provides an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Differences among them should be read as universe and methodology differences, rather than competing quotes for the same rental.","title":"Three rent sources answer different questions"},{"body":"Bedroom figures are modelled by scaling the ZIP-wide ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. That gives a consistent comparison framework from studios through larger homes, but it is not a sample of measured bedroom rents. A particular property can diverge because the model does not observe its utility treatment, lease design, physical characteristics, timing, or actual advertised price.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled, not sampled"},{"body":"ACS describes the ZCTA’s housing base, renter share, vacancy categories, and burden distribution, not the condition of a currently marketed unit. Wider Tucson city, Pima County, and Tucson metro values locate the ZIP between broader benchmarks, but their geographic and category scopes differ. The strongest use is comparison context alongside verification of the individual listing.","title":"Area stock data require listing verification"}],"risks":["The statistical ZCTA match may not align perfectly with a USPS delivery ZIP or a platform’s listing geography, so geographic labels should be checked before applying area metrics to an address.","The bedroom ladder is a modelled scaling of a blended ZIP asking-rent index against HUD standards; it cannot verify the rent, size, condition, lease terms, or utilities of any specific home.","ACS estimates summarize a multi-year surveyed population of occupied renter homes and carry margins of error. They can describe area burden and vacancy patterns, not a household’s current expenses, circumstances, or qualification.","The history captures past index movement only. Its variability and drawdown do not identify future rent direction, the availability of a unit, or an investment outcome."],"qa":[{"a":"The current value is Zillow ZORI for the ZIP market identifier. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a quote for an available property or a measured bedroom-specific series. Comparison to a listing depends on confirming the listed property type, terms, and utility treatment.","q":"What does the current ZIP rent measure?"},{"a":"ACS median gross rent comes from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI is an asking-rent index. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard with bedroom levels. The three values therefore have different populations, timing, and intended uses; their gaps do not establish a pricing error.","q":"Why do ZORI, ACS rent, and HUD standards differ?"},{"a":"The figures by bedroom are modelled estimates generated by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP-wide ZORI. They preserve a local standard’s relative bedroom pattern but are not measured rents from listings. They can organize comparison, but they cannot confirm rent or availability for a particular studio, apartment, or house.","q":"What can the bedroom estimates tell a reader?"},{"a":"Verify the property address and applicable market geography, quoted rent, bedroom count, property type, utility inclusions, lease term, fees, available date, and active listing status. Those facts determine whether a broad index, an ACS survey estimate, or a HUD-based modelled estimate is an appropriate comparison. Area vacancy and burden statistics cannot validate the individual unit.","q":"What should be checked on a property before comparison?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1093.2844},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1099.767648},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1111.350556},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1148.481256},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1186.915761},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1221.530637},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1257.068661},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1287.878997},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1294.493407},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1308.59261},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1305.501697},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1315.849243},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1334.381012},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1342.587942},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1361.563186},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1347.47232},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1353.720393},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1354.597472},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1352.77048},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1353.89674},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1362.774547},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1395.989525},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1413.304665},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1408.994044},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1379.368346},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1376.091432},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1389.510468},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1405.539201},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1408.433015},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1398.573187},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1397.761163},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1382.563862},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1384.3905},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1375.426529},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1386.178935},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1400.597753},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1412.608327},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1421.272472},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1391.532874},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1396.855417},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1396.710047},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1415.176152},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1412.909133},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1412.489737},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1420.442583},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1414.854525},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1419.690791},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1413.39412},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1420.047105},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1408.243099},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1420.848379},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1411.313141},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1415.760441},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1408.417095},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1412.951809},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1422.289619},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1416.524405},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1420.933415},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1412.103957},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1413.710723},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1411.584918},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1420.138792},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1424.839402},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1430.594738},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1430.568986}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":65,"firstPeriod":"2021-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":65,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1415.760441,"endRent":1430.568986,"change":0.01045978159238592,"cagr":0.01045978159238592},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1408.433015,"endRent":1430.568986,"change":0.015716736801998366,"cagr":0.005211703230270981},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1186.915761,"endRent":1430.568986,"change":0.20528266032520914,"cagr":0.03804882630173312}},"maxDrawdown":-0.02680111156358489,"annualizedVolatility":0.03758233671849591,"consecutiveReturnCount":64}}