ZIP 85706 is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier used here and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not an identical substitute for a USPS delivery ZIP, so an address-level listing can require a separate geography check. At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow ZORI is $1,146 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a quote for a specified unit. As wider rent context, the City of Tucson rent figure is $1,424.65, while the Pima County and Tucson, AZ metro rent figures are each $1,483; each city, county, and metro value is wider context, not a ZIP observation. The gap makes ZIP-level rather than regional comparability the immediate issue.
Recent direction breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer price path. Exact same-month changes through the endpoint were −4.22% over one year, −0.13% annualized over three years, and +4.05% annualized over five years. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.83%, while the maximum drawdown was −4.35%. Coverage was 100%, allowing this history to be read without a reported missing-period gap. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,802 for momentum, 1,305 for stability, and 2,565 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking Zillow measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations. The recent decline therefore weakens a single snapshot's claim to represent the longer path, and the observed variability supports treating its current level as a dated index reading rather than a fixed market fact.
Bedroom sizing should not be read as a set of measured local asking rents. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the provided local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $786 for a studio, $881 for one bedroom, $1,146 for two bedrooms, $1,591 for three bedrooms, and $1,837 for four bedrooms. The local HUD FY2026 FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; it runs from $830 for a studio to $1,940 for four bedrooms. Thus the ladder supplies relative bedroom scaling, while ZORI supplies the ZIP index level. It cannot establish what a particular bedroom count is actually advertised for, whether the inventory is comparable, or whether a unit's included charges match the index.
The matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year survey supplies a different rent universe: its $1,001 median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI stands 14.5% above that survey median, a difference consistent with their distinct concepts and populations, not a reason to substitute one for the other. A 30% required-income screen applied to the ZIP ZORI gives $45,840 annually, compared with reported median household income of $50,248. This screen is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The same ACS evidence records 3,697 of 7,696 renter households at or above the 30% burden threshold, or 48.0%; burden is a survey household measure and cannot prove the payment experience of a particular unit.
The housing-stock baseline is a survey count, not a live inventory: 19,276 units were recorded, with 1,307 vacant, for a 6.8% vacancy rate. Renter-occupied homes represented 42.8% of occupied homes. Within the vacancy categories, 514 units were marked vacant for rent. Neither that classification nor the overall vacancy rate proves that a unit is available today, rentable at the ZORI level, or comparable in size and condition. Still, these counts frame the ZIP index against a stock of occupied homes and a separately identified vacant-for-rent category, rather than treating all units as contemporaneous listings.
Putting the evidence together, the salient tension is a ZIP asking-rent index below each named wider market alongside a recent decline that interrupts a positive longer historical rate. Neither observation explains why the relationship exists. The City of Tucson, Pima County, and Tucson metro figures remain contextual benchmarks with different geographic reach; they should not overwrite a matched ZCTA survey result or ZIP-level history. ACS results are five-year survey estimates with reported margins of error, while HUD's administrative ladder can organize bedroom scaling but cannot reconcile an asking-rent series with gross rent. Differences in time basis, geography, tenant occupancy, utility treatment, and rental-type mix limit direct comparison. The evidence describes measured distinctions, not causes or what happens next.
For a property-level reading, confirm the address's actual ZIP and its relationship to the ZCTA, the listing's active status and date, stated bedroom count, asking-rent amount, utility inclusions, recurring fees, lease terms, and whether the unit's type resembles the mixed ZORI universe. Compare those disclosures with the distinction between an asking figure and an ACS gross-rent figure before interpreting the HUD-scaled bedroom estimate. Also verify that a vacancy label is not being used as a listing claim and that a burden statistic is not being treated as the tenant profile of the offered home. The central question is: do the listing's own terms support using this ZIP-level snapshot as relevant context, or do they expose a mismatch between the aggregate measures and the property?
","findings":[{"body":"The supplied history is complete over its reported coverage and shows a negative latest same-month change after a positive five-year annualized path. Its drawdown and monthly-return variability show that the current ZORI is not a timeless level. The discovery ranks are transparent relative placements among history-eligible ZIPs, not ratings of housing quality, prospects, or investment merit.","title":"Cooling has interrupted, not erased, the long record"},{"body":"ZORI describes typical observed asking rents across a blended rental mix. ACS describes median gross rent among occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR supplies a bedroom-specific administrative standard. Differences in concept, timing, geography, occupancy, and utility treatment mean the packet does not support merging these sources into one measured rent series.","title":"Three rent benchmarks, three distinct universes"},{"body":"The bedroom ladder takes the ZIP ZORI level and applies relative values from local HUD standards. It gives a consistent way to express studio through four-bedroom modelled estimates, but it does not observe bedroom-specific listings. The HUD standards themselves are neither market quotes nor guarantees of availability. A particular property can differ on unit type, charges, lease terms, and advertised status.","title":"Bedroom figures are a scaling model"},{"body":"The ACS burden estimate describes surveyed renter households, while vacancy categories classify units at the survey reference point. Neither tells whether a specific listing is available, whether a tenant will qualify, or how utilities and fees are structured. The renter share, occupied stock, and vacant-for-rent count instead provide aggregate context for interpreting the ZIP-level asking-rent index.","title":"Survey burden and vacancy are bounded indicators"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index, so it does not identify the advertised price, lease terms, utilities, condition, availability, or bedroom mix of any particular property.","The matched ZCTA supports statistical comparison but does not trace USPS delivery boundaries; a property near a boundary could be represented differently from the aggregate geography used by the survey.","HUD FMR levels and the scaled bedroom estimates are standards and model outputs, respectively. They may not match a listing's unit type, utility package, lease structure, fees, condition, or active asking rent.","A vacant-for-rent classification and a renter-burden percentage are aggregate measures from the survey. They cannot demonstrate present availability, actual applicant finances, or payment burden for any named home."],"qa":[{"a":"The label is used by Zillow for the ZIP-level ZORI observation and is matched to the Census ZCTA used for ACS evidence. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The match supports aggregate comparison, but it does not validate a property's mailing, service, or listing geography.","q":"Why is the ZIP label described as both a market identifier and a ZCTA match?"},{"a":"They measure different constructs. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across a blend of rentals. ACS is a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Timing, geography, occupancy, utilities, and rental mix therefore prevent a value from one source functioning as a replacement for another.","q":"Why do ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR not agree?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates generated by scaling ZORI with the local HUD ladder. The process gives internally consistent relative bedroom amounts but does not collect bedroom-specific local asking-rent observations. It also does not establish availability, condition, unit configuration, included utilities, fees, or lease terms for a property.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"Verify the actual address geography, active listing status and date, stated asking rent, bedroom designation, utility inclusions, recurring fees, lease terms, and unit type. Then separate those property facts from the ZORI index, ACS occupied-household survey results, HUD standard, vacancy classification, and burden statistic. The aggregate figures provide context; none alone characterizes an offered unit.","q":"What should be verified before relating the report to a listing?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":870.879811},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":881.647395},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":887.793571},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":896.093543},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":903.174391},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":914.774948},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":917.256809},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":927.170403},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":935.771418},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":939.716812},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":953.558259},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":971.500065},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":995.72153},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1007.718702},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1017.05432},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1027.574638},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1044.983955},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1052.998156},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1069.150615},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1076.904581},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1096.763353},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1112.808172},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1124.572599},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1122.895984},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1108.064605},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1109.596735},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1116.258198},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1125.555949},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1124.509975},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1135.830267},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1150.24931},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1163.453182},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1161.423736},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1150.417801},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1143.741528},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1141.34718},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1162.26628},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1169.332341},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1177.559729},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1180.713698},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1185.577104},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1193.587225},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1181.779636},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1175.011099},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1166.550035},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1168.764623},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1173.36536},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1178.789053},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1180.521135},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1178.016228},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1180.201747},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1177.460453},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1178.33787},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1170.364228},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1174.31985},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1180.51944},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1196.337789},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1196.423072},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1197.75205},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1198.03476},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1191.212184},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1190.565713},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1184.074208},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1182.440154},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1178.373098},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1176.488933},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1172.852151},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1164.69654},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1151.671017},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1145.902646}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":70,"firstPeriod":"2020-09-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":70,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1196.423072,"endRent":1145.902646,"change":-0.042226221795896635,"cagr":-0.042226221795896635},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1150.417801,"endRent":1145.902646,"change":-0.003924795840324458,"cagr":-0.0013099805798975073},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":939.716812,"endRent":1145.902646,"change":0.21941273303515185,"cagr":0.04047139543100586}},"maxDrawdown":-0.04351469234498673,"annualizedVolatility":0.028349861452003685,"consecutiveReturnCount":69}}