ZIP 85712 is both Zillow’s five-digit ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, was $1,122, up 0.08% from a year earlier. That asking-rent measure differs from the 2024 ACS five-year ZCTA median gross rent of $1,016, which covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; the current asking index is 10.4% higher. Against median household income of $50,625, annualizing the asking index produces a $44,880 required-income screen at 30% and an asking-rent-to-income ratio of 26.6%. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Separately, 46.1% of surveyed renter households reported gross-rent burdens at or above that share, which cannot establish the burden of any particular household or unit.
The current near-flat rent reading breaks from the ZIP’s longer backward-looking path. Exact same-month Zillow ZORI change was 0.08% over the latest year, versus annualized gains of 1.22% over three years and 5.28% over five years. Monthly rent-return variability annualized to 2.29%, suggesting relatively limited historical movement around the path rather than a highly erratic series. A separate peak-to-trough maximum drawdown of 1.62% was also shallow. Full history coverage was 100%, strengthening confidence that the series describes the observed period, but the weak recent direction means one current rent snapshot should not be read as evidence of renewed acceleration. Transparent national discovery ranks reinforce that split: momentum ranked 2,208, stability ranked 394, and the balanced rank was 1,470 among history-eligible ZIPs, where a lower rank is stronger. These are descriptive discovery measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The bedroom view is a modelled scaling exercise, not a set of measured bedroom rents. Using the local HUD ladder to scale the ZIP Zillow index produces monthly modelled estimates of $777 for a studio, $866 for one bedroom, $1,122 for two bedrooms, $1,564 for three bedrooms, and $1,793 for four bedrooms. The FY2026 HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,270. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, while Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. The modelled two-bedroom estimate aligns with the ZIP-level ZORI because it is the scaling anchor; it is not proof that a two-bedroom home is available at that amount.
The matched ZCTA contains 18,290 housing units and has an 8.7% vacancy rate. Renters account for 58.2% of occupied homes, making the renter-side ACS burden reading especially relevant as a population-level condition, not a unit-level finding. Housing stock is mixed: 9,474 units are single-family and 3,249 are large multifamily. Vacant inventory includes homes categorized for rent, for sale, and seasonal use, but that classification does not establish present availability, advertised terms, condition, or suitability for a particular renter. Likewise, the observed stock mix says nothing by itself about an individual property’s lease rate or occupancy prospects.
Wider geographies provide context rather than substitutes for ZIP evidence: Tucson city context rent is $1,424.65, Pima County context rent is $1,483, and Tucson, AZ metro context rent is also $1,483. Each sits above the ZIP’s current Zillow asking-rent index, but city, county, and metro figures describe broader scopes and cannot be treated as ZIP rental comparables. The gap may help frame how the ZIP’s asking index sits within reported regional context, yet it does not show that local rents must move toward any citywide, countywide, or metro-wide measure. The ZIP’s renter concentration, ACS burden measure, and current rent history remain the more geographically specific evidence in this packet.
For-sale evidence introduces a meaningful counterpoint to the rent history. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, median sold price was $289,934, down 3.03% year over year. There were 92 homes sold, with a median 49 days on market. Inventory stood at 131 homes and months of supply was 4.3. Sale-to-list indicators were also below a uniformly competitive pattern: the average sale-to-list ratio was 96.43%, 9% of sales closed above list, and 33.57% of listings went off market within two weeks. These are ZIP resale observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Together with flat recent ZORI, the softer resale price and sale-to-list signals challenge any simple assumption that the longer rent-growth history is currently being confirmed by the for-sale market.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price equals a 4.64% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The ratio does not account for property matching, operating costs, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancies, concessions, or differences between an index and a specific home. Its limited value is as a consistent gross comparison between the current ZIP asking-rent index and the direct ZIP median resale price. Here, that screen must be read beside the slow one-year asking-rent direction, the surveyed renter-burden share, and resale conditions showing a lower median sale price and average sales below list.
Important limits remain at the property level. Neither the ZCTA survey nor ZIP vacancy rate identifies the actual rent, availability, utility treatment, bedroom count, lease terms, condition, or turnover timing of a specific home. A property-level review would need to verify the current advertised asking rent, exact bedroom configuration, included utilities relative to ACS gross-rent scope, and any contemporaneous listing terms. For a purchase-side comparison, it would also need matched sale records, list-price history, and physical-property differences rather than the ZIP median alone. Confirming whether the local HUD standard is ZIP SAFMR or county-derived is also necessary before applying the modelled ladder. Do current unit terms and matched resale records support the broad ZIP signals, or expose a material mismatch?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP Zillow ZORI was $1,122 and rose only 0.08% year over year. The asking-rent index exceeds the matched ACS median gross rent, while the required-income screen falls below local median household income. Still, 46.1% of surveyed renter households reported gross-rent burdens at or above 30%, showing that a median-based screen and household burden statistics answer different questions.","title":"Current asking rent is nearly unchanged while survey burden remains material"},{"body":"The latest same-month rent change was almost flat, compared with stronger annualized gains over the three-year and five-year lookbacks. Historical variability and drawdown were limited, and coverage was complete, which supports the integrity of the backward-looking series. However, the current slowdown breaks from the longer path, so historic stability should not be treated as a forecast of renewed growth.","title":"Recent rent direction is weaker than the longer history"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom estimates are derived by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for comparing the relative shape of the local standard across bedroom counts, but they are not observed asking rents, lease transactions, or proof of available inventory. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, while Zillow ZORI is an asking-rent index with a different universe.","title":"Bedroom figures are HUD-scaled modelled estimates"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a lower median sold price year over year, marketing time near seven weeks, supply above four months, and average sales below list price. Those for-sale signals sit beside nearly flat recent asking-rent growth. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price figure is therefore only a cross-source screening ratio, not a property-level return measure.","title":"Resale signals complicate the rent-price screen"}],"risks":["The matched ACS ZCTA is a survey geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its five-year estimates describe occupied households with margins of error rather than current available rental listings.","Zillow ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index across rental types, so it cannot identify the asking rent, concessions, lease structure, utility treatment, or condition of a specific available property.","HUD FMR or SAFMR values are administrative bedroom standards, and scaling ZORI by that ladder creates modelled estimates rather than measured rents for actual studio through four-bedroom units.","Redfin resale observations describe sold homes and listing-market conditions, not rental transactions; median sales, supply, and sale-to-list measures cannot establish rental economics for an individual property."],"qa":[{"a":"The screen annualizes the current ZIP asking-rent index and divides that amount by the stated income share. It is a standardized arithmetic comparison with local median household income. It does not incorporate household size, debt, subsidies, credit, lease qualifications, actual utility obligations, or any applicant-specific financial circumstances.","q":"How should the required-income screen be interpreted?"},{"a":"They measure distinct universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a multi-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. HUD FMR or SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. Differences between them do not identify an error or a current lease price.","q":"Why do Zillow, ACS, and HUD rents differ?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates generated by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP Zillow asking-rent index. Their purpose is proportional comparison across bedroom counts. They are not listing aggregates, signed leases, transaction records, or evidence that a particular unit can be rented at the modelled amount.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed ZIP rents?"},{"a":"It establishes only a simple cross-source comparison between annualized ZIP Zillow ZORI and Redfin’s ZIP median sold price. It does not match a rental home to a sold home and excludes property expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and differences in condition. It should not be interpreted as a return, yield, or cap-rate calculation.","q":"What does the rent-to-sale-price screen establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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