At June 2026, ZIP 85716’s Zillow Observed Rent Index is $1,299 per month, down 1.55% from the same month a year earlier. The category is cooling: the one-year decline breaks from its longer path of 1.01% annualized growth over three years and 5.22% over five years. These are direct Zillow ZIP observations through the stated endpoint, backward-looking measurements rather than predictions. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.27%, and the historical maximum drawdown was -2.83%; together they mean a single current asking-rent snapshot requires the historical path for interpretation, not certainty about later movement. The series has complete coverage. Momentum, stability, and balanced national discovery ranks are 2,517, 2,004, and 2,662; these are transparent, lower-is-higher placements among history-eligible ZIPs, not predictive ratings or investment signals.
The five-digit label 85716 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey instead describes occupied renter homes: its median gross rent is $1,080 with a ±$30 90% margin of error and includes selected utilities. The current Zillow index is 20.3% above that ACS median, but the distinction in geography, population, timing, utility treatment, and rent concept prevents either series from serving as a substitute for the other.
Redfin supplies the sharper resale side of the tension. In its direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation for the stated endpoint, the median sold price was $341,423, down 7.72% year over year. The for-sale record logged 97 homes sold and a median 54 days on market. Reported inventory was 134 homes, with 4.2 months of supply. Sale-to-list signals were 98.49% on average, 15.97% sold above list, and 30.72% off market within two weeks. All are ZIP resale indicators, not rental transactions. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price equals 4.57%, a cross-source screening ratio only, not a measure of a particular property’s economics. The price decline confirms the current rent-cooling direction, yet its greater magnitude challenges any simple extension of the positive five-year rent path.
The income and burden screens add a separate tension. The ZIP asking-rent-to-income calculation is 31.8%; applying the 30% screen to the current asking index produces required annual income of $51,960, above the ZCTA median household income of $49,061. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS reports 5,245 of 10,325 renter households as spending 30% or more of income on rent, a 50.8% burden share. The burden statistic and the asking-rent screen should not be merged: one is a five-year survey measure of occupied renters and the other uses the current asking-rent index and area median household income. Neither establishes affordability for a particular available home.
ACS ZCTA housing data record 19,141 housing units, including 2,380 vacant units, for a 12.4% vacancy rate. Renters occupy 61.6% of occupied homes, making the ZCTA renter-heavy in its reported tenure mix. The stock spans both single-family units and large-multifamily buildings, so a ZIP-wide asking-rent index should not be read as one building type’s rent schedule. Of the vacant units, 948 are classified as vacant for rent. That aggregate is not proof that an individual listing is available, appropriately priced, habitable, or offered on a particular lease structure; it only describes the survey-area vacancy categories.
The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates, not measured bedroom rents. They scale ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder: $895 for a studio, $1,001 for one bedroom, $1,299 for two bedrooms, $1,809 for three bedrooms, and $2,078 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and the ladder is used here as a proportional calibration device rather than a record of completed leases or advertised bedroom-specific listings. The resulting two-bedroom estimate matches the ZIP-wide ZORI by construction, while the other bedroom values should be treated as model outputs with the same source and definition limits as the underlying index.
For wider context only, the City of Tucson at city scope has a contextual asking-rent measure of about $1,425; Pima County at county scope has $1,483; and the Tucson, AZ metro at metro scope has $1,483. The ZIP ZORI sits below all three broader contextual measures. Within their separate broader scopes, the City of Tucson and Pima County contexts also have lower renter shares and lower vacancy rates than this matched ZCTA, while the Tucson, AZ metro context has a lower rent-to-income screen. These comparisons provide scale, not substitutes for ZIP evidence: city, county, and metro figures cover wider populations and cannot describe the rent, vacancy, resale liquidity, or resident mix of a specific 85716 property.
The combined evidence describes current ZIP aggregates with several non-interchangeable definitions, not a forecast. Concrete property-level checks should confirm the actual advertised monthly rent, bedroom classification, whether quoted rent includes utilities, recurring fees, lease term, listing date, and availability. If a resale reference matters, verify the address-level sale date, list history, condition, and whether it belongs to the same property type as the rental under review. Those checks are especially important because ACS burden and vacancy measures cannot verify any single unit, while Redfin’s sold-price evidence is not rental evidence. The unresolved property-level question is whether a specific listing’s terms actually align with the broad ZIP indicators presented here.
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,299, down 1.55% from the same month a year earlier. That decline interrupts positive annualized changes of 1.01% over three years and 5.22% over five years. Complete historical coverage and 3.27% annualized variability support a measured reading: the current rent point is observed history, not a forward estimate.","title":"Recent rent cooling breaks the longer path"},{"body":"At the current index, the 30% arithmetic screen requires $51,960 of annual income, above the ZCTA median household income of $49,061. Separately, ACS reports that 5,245 of 10,325 renter households meet its 30%-or-more burden definition. These are different calculations and source populations; neither establishes an applicant’s eligibility or a particular unit’s affordability.","title":"Current asking-rent arithmetic is tighter than the area income median"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale record shows a $341,423 median sold price, down 7.72% year over year. Its 4.2-month supply, 98.49% average sale-to-list outcome, and 15.97% above-list share remain for-sale indicators only. The 4.57% rent-price screen combines sources for comparison; it does not describe rental transaction terms or a specific property’s economics.","title":"Resale evidence confirms cooling but remains a different market universe"},{"body":"ACS records 19,141 housing units and a 12.4% vacancy rate, while Zillow’s ZIP index is below the city, county, and metro contextual asking-rent measures. The area also has a 61.6% renter share and stock in both single-family and large-multifamily categories. Those aggregates are useful market context, but the 948 units marked vacant-for-rent do not verify actual availability, terms, or condition.","title":"Renter-heavy stock and vacancy remain aggregate evidence"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR answer different questions: asking-rent index, survey measure with selected utilities, and administrative standard. Treating them as interchangeable could misstate a unit’s actual advertised rent or lease cost.","The negative same-month annual change occurs after positive longer historical changes, while the series also recorded variability and drawdown. Those backward-looking measurements do not establish the next rent movement or any transaction outcome.","The Redfin figures are rolling-three-month ZIP resale observations, not rental transactions. Median sold price and sale-to-list behavior can differ materially across property type, condition, timing, and the actual rental home under review.","The ZCTA survey geography is statistical rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its estimates carry survey uncertainty. Vacancy and rent-burden aggregates cannot demonstrate price, condition, utility treatment, or availability for a particular unit."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Geography, population, timing, and definitions therefore differ.","q":"Why does Zillow ZORI differ from the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"The one-year figure is an exact same-month historical change through June 2026, so it states that the current ZORI was lower than its year-earlier level. It breaks from the positive three- and five-year annualized historical path. With annualized monthly-return variability and a realized maximum drawdown, the point should be read as history, not a forecast.","q":"What does the one-year rent decline mean?"},{"a":"The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates. They start with the ZIP ZORI and apply the local HUD bedroom ladder, so they are not measured rents for studio, one-bedroom, or other listings. Before comparing a unit, confirm its bedroom classification, advertised rent, utility treatment, fees, lease term, and availability date.","q":"How should the modelled bedroom estimates be used?"},{"a":"Redfin adds a direct rolling-three-month view of ZIP resale liquidity and pricing behavior: sold price, sales count, days on market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals. It does not add rental transactions. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price is only a cross-source screen and cannot represent property-specific operating results.","q":"What does the Redfin resale observation add?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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