The five-digit label 85718 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the match used for the Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so source geography should not be treated as an address-level boundary. At the stated Zillow endpoint, ZIP ZORI was $1,469 per month, up 1.7% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease ledger or a quote for one home. The matched ACS median gross rent was $1,289, a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities; the current asking index is 14.0% higher. That gap is a source-universe contrast, not proof that any renter’s payment changed by that amount.
Bedroom detail is available only as a modelled ZIP estimate created by scaling ZORI with the local HUD ladder. The resulting monthly modelled estimates are $1,010 for a studio, $1,132 for one bedroom, $1,469 for two bedrooms, $2,040 for three bedrooms, and $2,357 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and retain the limitations of the blended index. The local HUD standards run from $990 for a studio to $2,310 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; it supplies the scaling shape and does not establish what a landlord is currently requesting.
An income comparison makes the contrast between a broad household measure and a rent index explicit. Annualizing the ZIP asking index and applying the 30% screen gives required income of $58,760. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The matched ZCTA median household income was $114,892, making the index-to-income screen 15.3%. It is not a renter-income ratio, because the income statistic includes all households and does not report an individual household’s resources. Separately, the ACS reports 41.8% of renter households burdened at or above the same 30% threshold for gross rent. That survey burden can describe the ZCTA’s surveyed renter population, but cannot establish affordability, arrears, or burden for a particular available unit.
Supply-side counts caution against reading a broad vacancy percentage as turnkey rental availability. The matched ZCTA contained 15,103 housing units, including 1,810 vacant units, or a 12.0% vacancy rate. Its structure counts show 10,591 single-family units and 1,961 units in large multifamily structures; 973 vacant units were classified as seasonal. These categories describe the housing stock and its census status, not a current rental inventory feed. A vacant unit may be seasonal, for sale, unavailable, in transition, or otherwise unsuitable for a given search. Conversely, the data do not reveal the condition, rent, bedroom count, utility treatment, or lease terms of any particular unit.
Broader readings provide direction but not ZIP substitutes. For wider context only, Zillow’s city-scope Tucson asking-rent measure was $1,425, the Pima County-scope measure was $1,483, and the Tucson, AZ metro-scope measure was $1,483. The ZIP index therefore falls between the city context and the county and metro contexts. Those are wider geographies with their own rental mixes, and they should not be blended with the matched ZCTA ACS median, HUD standard, or direct ZIP resale data. Their use here is comparative context rather than an estimate of a property’s rent, vacancy, or tenant profile.
The direct Zillow ZIP history record is complete for its expected period: 138 observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns produce 100% coverage. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 1.7% for one year, 0.8% for three years, and 3.4% for five years. The latest pace is above the three-year path but below the five-year path. Recent direction thus confirms a longer net upward path while breaking from its earlier faster rate. This ZIP is categorized as high variability: annualized monthly-return variability reached 3.7%, which lowers the confidence appropriate for a single current rent snapshot. Separately, the maximum observed drawdown was 2.6%, documenting a historical retreat rather than a forecast of another one. Transparent national discovery results among history-eligible ZIPs show momentum score 37.2 at rank 1,842, stability score 18.0 at rank 2,379, and balanced score 29.5 at rank 2,446; lower ranks denote stronger discovery standing. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Resale data provide a separate, direct view of ZIP for-sale liquidity. Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation shows a median sold price of $748,831, up 3.3% year over year, with 160 homes sold and a median 55 days on market. The inventory reading was 195 homes and months of supply stood at 3.7. Average sale-to-list was 96.8%, while 9.0% of sales closed above list. These are resale signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. The resale price increase exceeded the asking-index change, creating tension with the slower recent rent-history screen, while the below-list average and marketing time challenge a simple price-only reading of for-sale conditions. The 2.35% screen—annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price—is solely a cross-source screening ratio; it does not measure property operating economics or expected investment performance.
Every source imposes a distinct limit. ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index rather than a listing quote; ACS is a multi-year survey of occupied homes with sampling uncertainty; HUD is a standard; and Redfin records recent resales rather than rents. None establishes the availability or economics of a specific dwelling. A property-level review would need the live advertised rent, rental type, bedroom count, included utilities, lease length, availability status, and condition before connecting a listing to the ZORI or ACS evidence. If using resale information, it would separately need the matching property’s sale price, list price, closing timing, and transaction status. Checking those items also prevents a seasonal or other vacant census unit from being assumed available. Does verified property evidence fit the source-specific ZIP signals, rather than forcing any broad metric onto one address?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI was $1,469, whereas the matched ACS median gross rent was $1,289. The 14.0% difference should be read through definitions: ZORI is a current typical asking-rent index across rental types, while ACS is a multi-year occupied-renter survey including selected utilities. Neither series serves as a direct quote for an individual property.","title":"Current rent sits above the survey median"},{"body":"Complete ZIP ZORI coverage supports the stated one-, three-, and five-year comparisons, but the pattern is not uniform. The latest annualized change exceeds the three-year pace and trails the five-year pace. High variability and the recorded drawdown mean that one current rent snapshot deserves less confidence than a smooth long-run trend would imply.","title":"The historical path is positive but uneven"},{"body":"HUD-based bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates, not measured bedroom rents. They preserve the relative shape of the local bedroom standard while anchoring to ZIP ZORI. The income screen is only annualized-rent arithmetic, and its comparison with all-household median income cannot identify any applicant’s resources or qualification.","title":"Bedroom and income screens require careful labels"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP observation describes recent for-sale transactions, including sold prices, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It is not rental evidence. The faster resale-price change than the asking-rent change creates a cross-market tension, while the below-list average and longer marketing period make a single resale price statistic incomplete on its own.","title":"Resale evidence is a distinct market signal"}],"risks":["Geographic matching is imperfect: the Census ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and city, county, and metro figures are wider context rather than ZIP property comparables.","ACS rental, income, vacancy, and burden results are survey estimates covering occupied homes over multiple years; their timing, utility treatment, and sampling uncertainty differ from current asking-rent evidence.","The complete history still carries a high-variability label. A current ZORI point may be less representative after uneven monthly moves, and the prior drawdown does not establish future rent direction.","The resale screen combines annualized asking rent with a median sold price from another universe. It omits expenses, financing, property condition, lease terms, and transaction-specific differences, so it cannot describe investment economics."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The ZCTA geographic match and survey period also differ from Zillow’s ZIP index, so the gap is a definitional comparison rather than a contradiction.","q":"Why does Zillow ZORI differ from the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled ZIP estimates, produced by scaling the ZIP ZORI using local HUD bedroom standards. HUD FMR/SAFMR is administrative and bedroom specific, not a set of observed asking rents. A given listing can differ because the model does not identify its actual property type, utilities, condition, or lease terms.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures measured rents for available units?"},{"a":"Applying 30% to the annualized ZORI is simply the arithmetic needed to produce the stated required-income screen. It is not affordability advice, an applicant qualification rule, or a statement about any household’s income. The broader ACS burden statistic is separately survey-based and cannot determine the burden of a particular available home.","q":"What does the required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"The Redfin observation is a direct ZIP rolling-three-month for-sale record, useful for describing sold-price and marketing signals in that resale universe. It is not rental comp evidence. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sale price creates only a cross-source screen and does not supply operating costs, property economics, or expected performance.","q":"How should the Redfin resale section be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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