At $1,299 in June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI frames 85719 as a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not a signed-lease series, an individual listing quote, or a statement about a particular home. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That distinction matters before comparing the index with survey households, HUD standards, or home sales. By itself, the figure provides market-level scale, but its blended composition leaves property-specific rent, utilities, bedroom count, and concessions unobserved.
Rent history supplies a backward-looking test of whether today’s asking index is an isolated level. The direct Zillow ZIP series through its stated endpoint has 100% coverage. Exact same-month annualized changes are 1.00% over 1 year, 1.05% over 3 years, and 4.43% over 5 years. Thus, recent direction confirms continued upward movement but breaks from the materially faster longer path. Monthly returns produce 2.82% annualized variability. That contained historical movement supports moderate, not absolute, confidence that one current index value is not merely an outlier; it does not signal an assured next step. Separately, the deepest peak-to-trough retreat reached 2.39%, setting a historical loss boundary for the index. Transparent national discovery ranks, where lower ranks are higher, are 1,985 for momentum, 1,276 for stability, and 1,901 for balanced performance among history-eligible ZIPs. Those ranks and measurements describe past observations, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The ACS creates a separate affordability and occupancy lens. In the matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 5-year survey of occupied renter homes, median gross rent was $1,146, including selected utilities; that survey median is 13.4% below the Zillow asking-rent index. Its median household income was $42,241. Applying the stated 30% screen to annualized ZIP ZORI produces $51,960 of required annual income. This is arithmetic for comparison, not advice and not an applicant-qualification rule. The survey also records 9,061 renter households with gross-rent burden at or above that screen, a 61.0% share. The burden result describes respondents and their reported housing costs across the ZCTA, so it cannot establish that a specific available unit is affordable, occupied, or burdened.
Bedroom detail comes from a third universe, not from observed ZIP bedroom quotes. The local FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is a bedroom-specific administrative standard rather than asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that local ladder, anchored to the HUD two-bedroom standard of $1,380, yields modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $894 for a studio, $998 for one bedroom, $1,299 for two bedrooms, $1,807 for three bedrooms, and $2,080 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The two-bedroom result equals the ZIP index by construction, while the other amounts express the HUD bedroom relationships; they do not verify a unit’s size, amenities, utility treatment, or quoted rent.
Survey stock explains why neither the index nor a vacancy percentage should be read as an available-unit count. The matched ZCTA has 22,463 housing units: 20,609 are occupied and 1,854 vacant, yielding an 8.3% vacancy rate. Renter-occupied homes account for 72.1% of occupied units, emphasizing that survey rental households are a large component of the area’s housing base. Its recorded structure mix includes 11,089 single-family units and 5,314 units in the large-multifamily category. These are broad ACS stock measures collected over the survey period. They do not identify current listing supply, physical condition, turnover, or whether any particular address is vacant, rent-ready, or suitable for a particular household.
Broader places give scale but not substitutes for ZIP evidence. For wider-geography context only, the City of Tucson context reports a $1,424.65 rent index, while the Pima County context and Tucson, AZ metro context each report $1,483; all are above the direct ZIP index. Their scope is expressly citywide, countywide, and metropolitan rather than the matched ZIP/ZCTA area. The gap therefore identifies a contextual difference in the reported rent measures, not a comp set, a neighborhood conclusion, or a reason to assume any specific dwelling will follow the wider pattern. The ZIP’s renter-heavy survey composition further counsels against treating broader averages as interchangeable with its observed asking-rent index.
Resale evidence introduces a separate tension. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation concerns the for-sale market, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $365,417, down 3.84% from a year earlier. It recorded 109 homes sold, a median 55 days on market, inventory of 133 homes, and 3.7 months of supply—direct measures of resale activity and marketing conditions. The average sale-to-list relationship was 97.69%, while 17.94% of sales closed above list; both remain resale signals only. Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by the median sold price produces a 4.27% cross-source screening ratio, not a measure of property income, expenses, financing, or expected outcome. The contrast between still-positive ZIP rent history and a lower resale price challenges any simple reading of the rent series or ratio as uniform market strength; it also does not resolve the ACS household-income screen.
Decision limits are consequential here. ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS is a multi-year survey of occupied households, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is a short resale observation; matching their numbers does not turn them into one property-level dataset. Historical changes remain backward-looking measurements rather than forecasts. A property-level review would need the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, utility allocation, lease length, concessions, availability date, and building form. For a contemplated sale, it would separately require the recorded closing price, list history, condition, occupancy status, association charges where applicable, and the responsibility for taxes, insurance, and repairs. Does the exact dwelling’s verifiable rent, terms, and sale facts align with the relevant source universe, rather than relying on whether a broad index, burden share, or resale screen appears favorable?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI tracks a current blended asking-rent index, while ACS median gross rent summarizes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Their difference is therefore a timing and source-universe contrast, not evidence that an available unit costs a given amount or that an existing lease resets to the ZORI level. Neither series functions as a property-specific lease comp.","title":"Current rent sits above the survey rent, but the measures differ"},{"body":"Exact same-month rent changes remain positive over every reported horizon, yet the short and intermediate growth rates are far below the longer-run rate. Complete coverage and limited historical monthly movement improve context for interpreting the present index, but do not turn past stability, discovery ranks, or trend direction into a forecast.","title":"Growth has persisted but decelerated"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation shows a lower median sold price from a year earlier while Zillow’s rent history remains positive. That contrast challenges a uniform-market interpretation. The rent-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screen because it excludes the property-level income, expenses, financing terms, condition, and transaction details needed for any property-specific conclusion.","title":"Resale and rental measures create a screening tension"},{"body":"The bedroom ladder applies HUD’s local administrative relationships to the ZIP’s all-types asking-rent index. It produces a consistent set of modelled estimates across bedroom counts, but the calculation does not observe quoted rents, concessions, utilities, or amenities for actual studios or larger homes. The matching two-bedroom result is an anchoring feature of the model, not independent confirmation.","title":"HUD provides a size framework, not a bedroom rent survey"}],"risks":["Cross-source comparisons carry a measurement risk: asking rents, occupied-household gross rents, HUD standards, and rolling resale results use different populations, timing, inclusions, and purposes, so apparent gaps cannot be treated as direct property comps.","The ACS vacancy and burden figures are area-level survey measures with sampling uncertainty and multi-year timing. They cannot demonstrate whether a particular residence is vacant, rent-ready, affordable, or occupied by a burdened household.","Bedroom amounts are mechanically modelled from the HUD ladder and ZIP index. A specific home may differ in bedroom classification, utility responsibilities, lease terms, condition, concessions, and quoted asking rent.","The rent-to-price screen excludes actual acquisition terms, operating costs, financing, taxes, insurance, repairs, and property condition. The historical and resale observations are backward-looking, so they do not establish future performance."],"qa":[{"a":"The shared label permits the supplied ZIP asking-rent data to be paired with Census survey data, but the geographies have different functions. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area built for tabulation, while a USPS delivery ZIP is used for mail routing. Neither should be assumed to replicate the other address by address.","q":"Why does the ZCTA label not necessarily match a postal delivery ZIP?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the all-types Zillow asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD provides an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than rent observations. The figures preserve that ladder’s relative structure, so they cannot verify a listing’s bedroom count, included utilities, amenities, or actual quoted rent.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents?"},{"a":"It divides the annualized ZIP asking-rent index by a thirty-percent share of annual income to state the income amount associated with that arithmetic threshold. It is a comparison device only. It is not financial advice, not an affordability finding for a particular dwelling, and not an applicant qualification rule used by a landlord or program.","q":"What does the 30% income screen mean?"},{"a":"Treat Redfin as direct ZIP for-sale evidence: its price, sales pace, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list results describe resale conditions. Zillow history instead tracks asking-rent index movement. A rent index divided by sold price is a cross-source screen, while the price decline creates a useful tension rather than proof about rental transactions or future outcomes.","q":"How should resale evidence be read alongside rent history?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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