At June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 85745 was $1,504 per month. This five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a current market index rather than lease terms on every home. The central tension is that this current rent reading sits beside a weakening direct ZIP resale price observation, while its backward rent path has slowed rather than reversed. That contrast calls for careful separation of asking-rent, survey, standard, and resale evidence.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a $362,918 median sold price, down 5.74% year over year. It recorded 120 homes sold with a 57-day median marketing time; 157 homes were counted as inventory and 4.0 months of supply. Sellers averaged 98.54% of list price, 21.39% of sales closed above list, and 28.1% went off market within two weeks. These are for-sale/resale measures, not rental transactions or rental comparables. The price decline and below-list average challenge a simple interpretation of the rent level as uniformly strengthening, although activity and supply show the resale observation has measurable liquidity rather than no transactions.
Looking backward, exact same-month Zillow ZORI changes were 0.28% over one year, 0.88% annualized over three years, and 4.46% annualized over five years. The much smaller recent change breaks from the faster five-year path, while remaining positive; it is a measurement of prior movement, not a forecast. The series is classified high variability. Monthly ZORI returns varied at a 4.84% annualized rate, which reduces the confidence warranted by one current rent snapshot. Separately, the largest peak-to-trough history decline was 6.11%, evidence that the index has experienced meaningful past retracement. Coverage is 100% across 78 observations and 77 consecutive monthly returns. Among history-eligible ZIPs nationally, transparent discovery ranks are 2,238 for momentum, 2,810 for stability, and 2,753 for balanced history, where lower rank is higher; those are descriptive discovery tools, not recommendations.
An ACS 2024 five-year survey for the matched ZCTA reports $1,172 median gross rent. That is a survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, making it different from asking rents; the ZORI reading is 28.3% higher. HUD’s FY2026 local bedroom-specific FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative standard rather than asking rent, spanning studio through four-bedroom categories and reaching $2,260. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,035 for a studio, $1,163 for one bedroom, $1,504 for two bedrooms, $2,091 for three bedrooms, and $2,411 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and should not be read as unit-level comparables.
The affordability screen is deliberately arithmetic: applying a 30% share of income to the monthly ZORI produces a $60,160 annual required-income screen. It is neither advice nor an applicant-qualification rule. The ZCTA’s $71,348 median household income puts the index-based asking-rent-to-income calculation at 25.3%, but a household median cannot establish what any renter earns or can pay. In the ACS renter survey, 2,249 of 5,441 renter households, or 41.3%, reported gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. Because gross rent includes selected utilities and is a five-year occupied-home survey, this burden statistic does not prove the affordability of a particular unit, tenant, or newly advertised lease.
Survey housing composition gives the burden and vacancy figures a different frame. In the matched ZCTA, ACS counts 17,497 housing units and a 6.2% vacancy rate; it is stock measured through a five-year survey, not a live availability feed. Renters occupy 33.2% of occupied units. The stock includes 12,378 single-family units and 1,729 units in large multifamily structures, while 503 units are categorized vacant for rent. Those categories cannot identify a specific available home, its condition, price, or lease terms. Nor does area vacancy establish vacancy at one building. They instead describe the composition and survey-period availability context around the current asking-rent index.
Broader places are context only, not substitutes for ZIP evidence. Tucson city context has a $1,425 asking-rent index; Pima County context has a $1,483 asking-rent index; and Tucson, AZ metro context has a $1,483 asking-rent index. The ZIP reading is higher than all three wider rent contexts. Their renter-share, vacancy, burden, income, and apartment data remain geographic context, rather than a revision to matched-ZCTA ACS or direct ZIP ZORI. A city value must be read as city scope, a county figure as Pima County scope, and a metro figure as Tucson, AZ metro scope. They cannot represent ZIP availability or a particular lease.
Use the evidence as a scoped screen, not as a conclusion about a property. The annualized ZORI-to-median-sale-price result is 4.97%; because it divides an asking-rent index by a resale median from another source, it is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Before relying on it, verify the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, availability date, and whether the home belongs in the rental type represented by the index. For a sale candidate, separately verify its current list history, final sale terms, and condition. The key unresolved question is whether a specific unit’s current terms resemble the blended asking-rent index enough for this ZIP-level, backward-looking evidence to be relevant.
","findings":[{"body":"Recent rent momentum is substantially slower than the longer historical growth path, yet it remains positive in the recorded series. The high-variability classification and prior retracement mean the current ZORI is best treated as a useful but incomplete snapshot. Full coverage makes the history well observed, not inherently predictive, and the discovery ranks are comparative descriptors rather than investment signals.","title":"Rent momentum has cooled"},{"body":"ACS gross rent and renter burden offer a survey-based occupied-home perspective, whereas ZORI offers a blended typical asking-rent perspective and HUD sets administrative bedroom standards. The bedroom figures derived from the HUD ladder are proportional model outputs, not observed rents for apartments or houses. This separation matters because included utilities, occupancy, rental mix, and administrative purpose differ across the three evidence universes.","title":"The rent sources answer different questions"},{"body":"Resale signals do not validate rental pricing. The direct ZIP sales observation shows a lower median sale price and below-list average sale-to-list outcome even as transactions occurred and supply was measurable. That evidence challenges a simple strong-market reading of the current rent index, while it cannot say whether any rental property traded, leased, or produced a particular property outcome.","title":"Resale evidence challenges a simple rent reading"},{"body":"The rent screen sits below the matched-ZCTA median household income when calculated mechanically, but a household median is not renter income and the burden result remains survey-based. Stock composition and vacancy provide context rather than proof of an available home. Decision use therefore depends on checking the actual unit’s advertised rent, bedroom count, utilities, term, availability, and relevant sale information separately.","title":"Unit verification remains decisive"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended, typical asking-rent index, while ACS describes occupied renter homes with selected utilities and HUD supplies administrative bedroom standards; treating those as interchangeable could materially distort an individual listing comparison.","The complete rent history still includes notable variation and a prior drawdown, so a single June index observation does not establish a stable direction or a future rent level.","The ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS figures summarize a five-year survey period; vacancy, burden, and stock categories cannot verify an available unit.","Redfin supplies a rolling resale observation rather than rental transactions; its rent-to-price calculation is cross-source only, while actual rent, utilities, lease terms, and sale facts require property-level verification."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow reports a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types at a current point in time. ACS is a matched-ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. Those samples and concepts are not alternatives measuring the same lease population, so a difference is expected and not a data error.","q":"Why does the current rent differ from ACS gross rent?"},{"a":"No. Each bedroom figure is a modelled ZIP estimate created by scaling the blended ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard and not asking rent. The resulting ladder is useful for proportional screening only; it does not observe advertised or signed rents for individual bedroom categories.","q":"Are the bedroom figures actual market rents?"},{"a":"No. The income screen simply divides annualized ZORI by the stated income-share threshold to show arithmetic context. It is not advice, an affordability determination, or an applicant qualification rule. Median household income is a broad ZCTA statistic, while renter burden is a survey result, so neither establishes a household’s income, utilities, obligations, or lease eligibility.","q":"Does the income screen determine whether a renter qualifies?"},{"a":"Redfin adds a direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale/resale observation: sale pricing, activity, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It does not provide rental transactions or unit rental economics. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price is therefore a cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, yield, net return, or forecast.","q":"What does Redfin add to this rental analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1016.932247},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1038.707664},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1023.779049},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1013.839056},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":999.926973},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":999.283826},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1016.884384},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1047.106863},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1082.738745},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1096.671865},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1123.745068},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1140.077039},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1141.775615},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1125.89461},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1138.023004},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1158.903968},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1195.284532},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1209.281229},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1217.436078},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1206.241717},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1240.43852},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1288.157636},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1321.195532},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1322.596956},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1328.729054},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1359.072188},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1378.178178},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1402.151614},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1387.507647},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1404.014946},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1425.50881},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1471.735587},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1444.236232},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1410.756673},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1381.879797},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1400.589996},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1413.69812},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1413.790641},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1408.509198},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1407.344005},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1442.548878},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1465.27477},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1478.777972},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1476.822277},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1475.808839},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1472.272556},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1459.07361},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1449.168439},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1454.6083},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1460.560872},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1460.112968},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1460.265096},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1458.022721},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1461.159641},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1459.109062},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1448.845684},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1464.050034},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1510.36864},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1538.707606},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1540.104962},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1516.286013},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1506.542394},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1513.187007},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1518.854734},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1518.361884},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1500.0739},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1494.926756},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1499.637715},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1497.34927},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1473.110499},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1467.489536},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1471.296545},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1486.749301},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1493.811203},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1493.459057},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1492.892018},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1492.231673},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1504.224874}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":78,"firstPeriod":"2020-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":78,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1500.0739,"endRent":1504.224874,"change":0.0027671796702815055,"cagr":0.0027671796702815055},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1465.27477,"endRent":1504.224874,"change":0.026582116062777716,"cagr":0.008783332554447743},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1209.281229,"endRent":1504.224874,"change":0.24389996133810832,"cagr":0.04461700393919643}},"maxDrawdown":-0.06105430268433121,"annualizedVolatility":0.048397787225149806,"consecutiveReturnCount":77}}