Rent is the central tension in 87106. Zillow ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, was $1,425 in June 2026, following a 4.3% same-month annual increase. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Applying the 30% screen arithmetically to the index produces required annual income of $57,000, above the ZCTA’s $49,781 median household income; the implied ratio is 34.4%. This is an area-level comparison, not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or a statement about any lease.
Those figures answer different questions from the matched ACS measure. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $936 median gross rent among occupied renter homes, including selected utilities, making the current asking-rent index 52.2% higher. The local FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,464; it is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. For wider context only, the City of Albuquerque context rent is $1,485.51, the Bernalillo County context rent is $1,488, and the Albuquerque, NM metro context rent is $1,522; these are city, county, and metro values rather than ZIP estimates.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled rather than observed. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $982 for a studio, $1,153 for one bedroom, $1,425 for two bedrooms, $1,982 for three bedrooms, and $2,335 for four bedrooms. This approach preserves the ZIP-level rent index while applying local HUD bedroom relationships. It does not convert HUD standards into listings or transactions. The resulting figures are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they should not be substituted for a unit’s advertised rent, lease structure, or included-utility treatment.
Rent history provides a more nuanced backdrop than the current annual gain alone. Exact same-month annualized changes were 4.3% over one year, 2.97% over three years, and 6.17% over five years. The latest pace exceeds the three-year rate but remains below the five-year rate, so recent direction confirms a positive longer path while breaking from its faster long-run pace. Monthly-return variability annualizes to 2.72%, indicating relatively limited month-to-month movement in this history. Separately, the largest observed peak-to-trough decline was 2.95%. The series has 100% coverage across 122 observations. Transparent national discovery ranks are 757 for momentum, 1,090 for stability, and 549 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks higher among history-eligible ZIPs. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations; the contained variability supports more confidence in the current snapshot than a highly erratic series would, but it cannot remove source or property-level limits.
Survey housing composition adds another layer to the affordability tension. The ZCTA has 14,003 housing units, including 7,383 single-family units and 1,939 large multifamily units, with an overall vacancy rate of 11.8%. Its 7,600 renter-occupied units represent a 61.5% renter share. Among those renter households, 4,311, or 56.7%, reported gross-rent burdens at or above 30% of income. The vacant-for-rent count is a survey category of supply, not proof that a particular unit is currently available, appropriately priced, habitable, or suited to a specific household. Likewise, burden results do not identify any individual tenant’s payment situation.
On the for-sale side, Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation shows a $399,910 median sold price, up 2.61% from a year earlier. It recorded 83 homes sold and a median 43 days on market. Reported inventory was 94 homes, alongside 3.4 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 98.24%, while 13.59% of sold homes closed above list price. These are direct ZIP for-sale and resale signals about pricing, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale outcomes; they are not rental transactions, lease comparables, or evidence of rents for particular homes.
Putting the two source universes next to each other creates a useful but bounded tension. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price equals a 4.28% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The concurrent upward movement in the asking-rent index and median resale price forms a compatible directional signal, while the required-income screen and renter-burden evidence challenge any reading of the rent increase as broadly attainable across households. Neither the resale observation nor the affordability measures establish causation, and neither translates automatically into the economics of a specific property.
Several limits set the boundary for use of this ZIP report. ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey with published margins of error, Zillow is an asking-rent index rather than a listing-level rent roll, HUD supplies an administrative standard, and Redfin measures resale activity rather than rental activity. A property-level review would need to check the advertised rent, bedroom configuration, lease treatment of utilities, current availability, and whether the relevant price evidence concerns an active listing or a completed sale. Aggregate vacancy, burden, and resale statistics cannot determine those facts. The decisive question is whether property-specific documents align with the relevant evidence universe, rather than whether one area-wide statistic can stand in for them.
","findings":[{"body":"The current ZIP asking-rent index sits above the matched ACS gross-rent median, and the simple thirty-percent income screen exceeds the reported ZCTA median household income. This establishes an affordability tension at the area level while leaving actual lease terms, household composition, and any individual applicant outcome unobserved.","title":"Area-level affordability tension"},{"body":"Same-month rent changes remained positive over each reported horizon. The latest annual pace is stronger than the three-year pace but trails the five-year pace, so the evidence indicates continued growth alongside deceleration from its longer-run rate. Complete history coverage, limited variability, and a modest peak-to-trough decline improve context, not predictive certainty.","title":"Positive rent path with slower long-run comparison"},{"body":"The ZCTA has a renter-majority occupied base, an elevated overall vacancy rate, and a substantial share of renter households reporting gross-rent burdens at or above thirty percent. Vacant-for-rent counts indicate a category of supply, but they do not establish that a particular home is available, competitively priced, habitable, or suitable for any household.","title":"Renter-heavy survey base and burden exposure"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP observation records resale price, selling pace, supply, and sale-to-list behavior for for-sale transactions. Those signals provide a direct local resale backdrop but cannot serve as lease comparables. The rent-to-price calculation is useful only as a cross-source screening ratio because it is not a property-level measure or return calculation.","title":"Resale backdrop is informative but separate"}],"risks":["The matched ZCTA is a statistical area, while Zillow uses a ZIP market identifier, and ACS is a five-year survey with margins of error. Geographic and timing alignment is therefore partial rather than property-specific.","ZORI blends rental types into a typical asking-rent index, while the bedroom ladder is modelled from HUD standards. Neither source measures the rent, size, included utilities, concessions, or availability of any specific listing.","Vacancy, renter share, and rent-burden measures are aggregate ZCTA survey characteristics. They cannot establish a unit’s vacancy status, tenant payment burden, lease price, eligibility, quality, or actual market exposure.","Redfin resale metrics describe sales and for-sale inventory over a rolling period. The rent-price screen omits property-level information and is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent comes from a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different populations, rent concepts, utility treatment, and time frameworks can therefore produce different values without either measure being a direct substitute for the other.","q":"Why does the current asking-rent index differ from the ACS gross-rent median?"},{"a":"Each bedroom figure starts with ZIP ZORI and applies ratios from the local HUD bedroom ladder. This creates a consistent studio-through-four-bedroom scale anchored to the area index. HUD FMR/SAFMR remains an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking-rent evidence, so the outputs are modelled estimates and never measured bedroom rents.","q":"How were the bedroom rent figures created?"},{"a":"The screen takes the monthly ZIP ZORI, annualizes it, and divides by thirty percent to derive a household-income benchmark. Comparing that arithmetic result with the reported ZCTA median household income describes an aggregate mismatch. It does not account for a particular household’s income, lease terms, assets, qualification process, or ability to rent.","q":"Does the required-income screen determine whether someone can qualify for a rental?"},{"a":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month figures are direct ZIP resale observations: sold prices, sales counts, days on market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. They establish for-sale market conditions only. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price is a cross-source screening ratio, not a property-level return measure, rental comparable, or forecast.","q":"What can the Redfin resale data establish about the rental market?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":829.49056},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":821.499925},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":804.983617},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":805.874236},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":811.29841},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":815.237681},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":810.13363},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":817.631556},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":826.266261},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":836.678648},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":842.887754},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":835.716091},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":841.223766},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":848.281993},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":853.342496},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":847.403508},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":842.856115},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":848.774871},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":854.497919},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":849.057307},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":846.230408},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":847.261387},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":856.746936},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":863.774857},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":862.83505},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":859.896038},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":859.006682},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":863.518598},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":871.528727},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":870.973204},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":873.054127},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":877.643261},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":874.366252},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":877.44028},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":873.531205},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":873.370163},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":874.013274},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":881.27181},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":890.438662},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":897.373029},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":900.192147},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":905.359828},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":910.984999},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":918.313075},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":930.696267},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":937.142103},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":938.43074},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":940.888852},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":940.001814},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":942.51245},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":940.402006},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":949.847496},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":965.653135},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":972.927471},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":976.274132},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":977.583417},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1005.42353},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1022.037944},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1033.883734},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1030.777747},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1045.26952},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1056.434702},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1077.874943},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1092.534419},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1118.954957},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1132.332756},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1144.728255},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1167.656777},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1156.089628},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1175.351844},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1163.840452},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1198.943626},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1208.757729},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1216.765385},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1226.715652},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1227.267546},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1227.448667},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1235.03553},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1253.575473},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1262.182196},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1271.080628},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1260.015921},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1284.879605},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1285.397165},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1295.476566},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1305.361194},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1304.506577},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1311.312442},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1307.316496},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1318.594478},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1328.517802},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1333.786035},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1341.801686},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1338.933529},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1337.716238},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1327.536904},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1329.782064},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1334.78503},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1339.630197},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1347.640886},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1353.144479},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1354.764005},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1349.02436},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1349.178904},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1346.571533},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1363.225078},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1377.074428},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1378.442374},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1370.281266},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1365.859129},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1368.520635},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1367.313641},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1373.272467},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1373.815319},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1378.645924},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1383.286766},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1390.029553},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1390.549037},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1386.297627},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1399.869237},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1414.167962},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1425.040149}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":122,"firstPeriod":"2016-05-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":122,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1365.859129,"endRent":1425.040149,"change":0.04332878753267089,"cagr":0.04332878753267089},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1305.361194,"endRent":1425.040149,"change":0.09168263584829672,"cagr":0.029671757613848104},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1056.434702,"endRent":1425.040149,"change":0.34891455790137416,"cagr":0.06168795034091734}},"maxDrawdown":-0.02954457130892485,"annualizedVolatility":0.02721320789340284,"consecutiveReturnCount":121}}