The pivotal tension in this ZIP is not a single rent level: its direct ZIP resale evidence looks constrained and relatively quick-moving, while the rental series has eased from its longer-run growth pace and carries a high-variability label. The five-digit 87112 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That geographic match permits comparison, but it does not merge the underlying samples, periods, or definitions. The result is a ZIP-specific read in which sale-market signals, an asking-rent index, and renter-household survey data must be tested side by side rather than treated as one measurement.
At June 2026, Zillow ZORI for this ZIP was $1,349 per month, up 2.53% on the exact same month a year earlier. The exact same-month annualized change was 3.43% over three years and 6.94% over five years. Thus, recent direction still points upward, but its one-year pace breaks from the faster longer path by decelerating rather than reinforcing it. The backward-looking history has 121 monthly observations and 100% coverage across the available series. Monthly-return variation annualizes to 3.58%, supporting caution around any one current index reading. Separately, the largest observed peak-to-trough retreat was 2.64%. Transparent national discovery ranks, where lower is higher, were 1,024 for momentum, 2,312 for stability, and 1,707 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs; these are descriptive ranks, not forecasts or investment signals.
Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a median lease payment or a unit-specific quote. In the matched ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,121, 20.3% below the index; that survey covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is instead an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent: its two-bedroom standard was $1,464. Scaling the ZIP index by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $930 for a studio, $1,092 for one bedroom, $1,349 for two, $1,876 for three, and $2,211 for four. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, so the ladder should not be substituted for advertised or executed-bedroom rents.
The 30% required-income screen turns the current monthly index into $53,960 of annual income. Against the ZCTA's $73,937 median household income, the same arithmetic equates to 21.9% of income. This is a screening calculation, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; a median income does not identify a renter's income, household size, or rent obligation. In the ACS survey, 2,680 of 7,122 renter households, or 37.6%, reported gross-rent burdens of 30% or more. That burden finding applies to surveyed occupied renter homes, whereas ZORI tracks typical current asking rent; neither figure proves affordability, rent burden, availability, or utility treatment for a particular unit.
The matched ACS ZCTA recorded 20,219 housing units and a 4.6% vacancy rate; renter occupancy represented 36.9% of occupied homes. These counts describe area-level stock and vacancy classifications, not the condition or availability of a specific listing. Wider geography provides a different reference point: the Albuquerque citywide context showed asking rent of $1,485.51, the Bernalillo County countywide context showed $1,488, and the Albuquerque, NM metro context showed $1,522, each above the ZIP index. Those city, county, and metro values are context only, not substitutes for a ZIP observation, and their broader mixes can differ from the matched ZCTA household survey and the ZIP asking-rent index.
Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation ending June 30, 2026, is a for-sale record, not rental transactions. It reported a $324,927 median sold price, 2.18% above a year earlier, with 138 homes sold and a 23-day median marketing time. Inventory stood at 62 homes and 1.4 months of supply. Its sale-to-list indicators also stayed in the resale universe: the average sale-to-list ratio was 99.49%, 26.14% of sales closed above list, and 35.12% went off market within two weeks. Taken together, the sold count, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list signals describe direct ZIP resale liquidity at the stated endpoint; they cannot serve as lease comps, rental demand measurements, or property-level operating results.
Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by the Redfin median sold price yields a 4.98% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield, because it omits operating costs, financing, taxes, insurance, vacancies, and unit matching while joining an asking-rent index to a resale median. The resale evidence confirms that sales-side conditions were relatively tight, yet it challenges a simple rental-strength reading: sale prices rose while asking rents were increasing more slowly than their three- and five-year rates, and the rent history was variable. The affordability screen adds a second tension because apparent area-median income headroom coexists with a material survey burden share. None of these relationships establishes causation or an outcome for a property.
Interpretation should retain the boundaries of every source. ZORI can blend different rental types; ACS gross rent reflects surveyed occupied homes and selected utilities; the HUD ladder is an administrative benchmark; and Redfin tracks closed for-sale activity. Concrete property-level checks therefore include the actual bedroom count, advertised asking rent, utilities included, mandatory fees, concessions, lease length, date of availability, and whether the unit is occupied or vacant. For a sale comparison, check property type, condition, transaction date, and list-to-close record separately from rental evidence. These checks do not turn area statistics into a unit result, but they identify which source mismatch could materially change the read. Which mismatch—rent definition, bedroom fit, household income, or resale comparability—would most alter this ZIP-specific interpretation?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow's current ZIP index increased on a same-month basis, but the one-year annualized pace sat below both longer annualized comparisons. The series is complete across the available observation window, yet its high-variability designation and prior drawdown mean the index is strongest as a backward-looking current-rent reference. Its discovery ranks describe observed history; they do not project future rent movement.","title":"Rental momentum slowed within a complete history"},{"body":"Zillow, ACS, and HUD answer different questions. The Zillow measure is blended asking rent, ACS reports gross rent in surveyed occupied renter homes with selected utilities, and HUD supplies administrative bedroom standards. The bedroom figures are a model that scales the ZIP index using the local HUD ladder. They make size comparison easier, but they are not observed rent quotes or lease comps.","title":"Source definitions explain the rent gaps"},{"body":"Area-median income produces a mechanical 30% screen that looks less strained than the ACS burden share. That contrast is informative precisely because the denominators differ: one combines an asking-rent index with median household income, while the other summarizes surveyed renter households' gross-rent burdens. Housing-unit and vacancy counts describe the broader ZCTA stock, not whether an individual listing is affordable or available.","title":"Income screening and renter burden are distinct signals"},{"body":"Redfin shows an active direct ZIP resale record through its sold count, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. Those findings can contextualize whether for-sale conditions look tight, but they do not measure rents. The annualized-rent-to-sold-price calculation is a cross-source screen with no expenses, financing, property matching, or operating data, so it cannot stand in for property economics.","title":"Resale tightness does not measure rental economics"}],"risks":["Geographic matching is imperfect: the Zillow ZIP identifier and Census ZCTA align for this report, but a ZCTA is statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and source populations differ.","Current ZORI is an asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS gross rent reflects occupied renter homes and selected utilities; their gap cannot establish a unit's market rent or affordability.","High historical variability and a past drawdown reduce confidence in extrapolating from a single current rent snapshot, even though the observation history has complete coverage.","Resale statistics summarize closed for-sale transactions over a rolling window. They omit rental operating costs, unit condition matching, and lease terms, limiting the rent-to-price screen's interpretive reach."],"qa":[{"a":"The two figures are intentionally different evidence universes. ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Differences in timing, home status, rental mix, and utility treatment can produce a gap without either measure disproving the other.","q":"Why does the ACS rent figure sit below ZORI?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than asking rent, and the resulting studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are not measured asking rents, signed leases, or evidence that any specific unit is available at that level.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed rents?"},{"a":"It performs only arithmetic: it converts the current monthly index into an annual income figure using a 30% share. It is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden measure adds separate survey context for occupied renter households, but neither area statistic reveals an individual household's income, utilities, fees, household size, or actual rent obligation.","q":"What does the 30% income screen establish?"},{"a":"No. The ratio annualizes ZIP ZORI and divides it by the Redfin median sold price, joining two different sources and property universes. It omits operating expenses, taxes, insurance, financing, vacancy experience, transaction costs, and unit matching. Redfin's metrics remain for-sale/resale observations and do not demonstrate rental cash flow, net return, or property yield.","q":"Can the rent-to-price ratio be used as an investment return?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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