The clearest current tension in this ZIP is between direct resale heat and a cooling asking-rent path. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, the median sold price was $369,916, up 10.9% year over year. That for-sale dataset recorded 130 homes sold, a median 22 days on market, inventory of 69 homes, and 1.6 months of supply. Its sale-to-list signals were a 99.73% average sale-to-list ratio and a 27.01% share sold above list. These are resale liquidity and pricing observations, not rental transactions. The 4.38% figure, annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price, is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. The stronger resale price reading challenges the slower rent reading, but it does not establish any connection between a sold home and a rental unit.
Zillow’s current ZIP ZORI is $1,351 per month, increasing 0.65% year over year. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is not a lease-level quote or a measure of occupied homes. For wider context only, Albuquerque city’s city-context rent is $1,485.51, Bernalillo County’s county-context rent is $1,488, and the Albuquerque, NM metro’s metro-context rent is $1,522; none replaces the ZIP observation. The matched ACS gross-rent median is $1,086, a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities, making it a different universe from asking rent. The asking index is above that ACS median, a difference that should be read as scope and timing as well as level. The local HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,464; it is an administrative, bedroom-specific benchmark rather than an asking-rent observation.
Bedroom figures require an explicit modelling boundary. The ZIP model scales the current ZORI by the local HUD ladder: the resulting estimates are $931 for a studio, $1,094 for one bedroom, a two-bedroom modelled estimate equal to the current index, $1,879 for three bedrooms, and $2,214 for four bedrooms. The HUD standards used in that ladder are $1,009 for a studio, $1,185 for one bedroom, the two-bedroom benchmark already stated, $2,036 for three bedrooms, and $2,399 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, not asking rent, and these ZIP figures are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. They give a consistent bedroom-shaped screen, but cannot show the actual rent, condition, utilities, availability, or lease terms of any particular unit.
The $54,040 annual income attached to the 30% screen is simple arithmetic from the current monthly ZORI, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA median household income is $64,359. That comparison concerns a median-income benchmark, not household budgets, debt, household size, or eligibility. In the ACS renter-household universe, 2,943 of 6,378 renter households, or 46.1%, reported spending at least the screen share of income on gross rent. Because gross rent includes selected utilities and survey households are not individual listings, that burden share documents broad survey prevalence only; it cannot prove affordability, vacancy, or a rent burden for any specific unit.
The five-digit label 87123 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the matched ACS 2024 five-year survey, 1,244 housing units were vacant, yielding a 6.0% vacancy rate. The stock count includes 12,711 single-family units and 1,845 units in large multifamily structures. These are area-level survey classifications over the ACS period, not a live count of units obtainable today. In particular, the for-rent vacancy category does not identify asking prices, condition, timing, concessions, or whether a particular advertised home is available.
The cooling label follows the history rather than a forecast: direct Zillow ZIP ZORI same-month annualized change was 0.65% over one year, versus 2.80% over three years and 5.45% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer positive path, but its pace breaks from the stronger longer-period gains. The series has 100% coverage. Monthly rent returns had 2.95% annualized variability, so an individual current index reading deserves measured confidence rather than treatment as a settled trend. Its maximum drawdown reached 2.08% peak-to-trough, showing that the prior path also included retrenchment. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,678 for momentum, 1,527 for stability, and 1,792 for balanced history; lower ranks are higher. These backward-looking measurements are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations.
The resale and rent evidence should remain separate even where they point in opposing directions. Price growth, quick marketing, limited inventory, and near-list selling make the Redfin resale snapshot internally firm, while the ZORI history shows continuing but sharply slower asking-rent growth. That is a real screening tension: a reader cannot infer that the sales-market pace will be mirrored by advertised rents, or that the income and burden screens describe buyers. Nor does the resale median identify the value, condition, financing, operating costs, or rental performance of a property. The cross-source ratio is useful only for placing the ZIP’s annualized asking-rent index beside its resale median; it supplies no property economics and no forward result.
Useful follow-up is property-specific, not an extrapolation from the ZIP aggregates. Match the address to its actual delivery ZIP and to the relevant statistical geography; verify the advertised asking rent, bedroom count, property type, included utilities, availability date, and lease terms before comparing a listing with ZORI, ACS gross rent, or the modelled ladder. For a contemplated sale comparison, examine the property’s own list and sale records and whether the home resembles the transactions represented by the ZIP resale median. Also separate a live vacant listing from an ACS vacancy classification. With sources measuring different periods, populations, and transaction types, does the specific property’s current evidence fit the comparison universe being used?
","findings":[{"body":"Redfin’s rolling three-month ZIP resale data show a $369,916 median sold price, 10.9% annual growth, 22 days on market, and 1.6 months of supply. Meanwhile Zillow ZORI rose only 0.65% over one year. That disagreement is an evidence tension, not proof that resale conditions determine rents. The 4.38% rent-to-price figure is only a cross-source screen.","title":"Resale strength conflicts with rent cooling"},{"body":"Studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom, three-bedroom, and four-bedroom values are modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are not measured asking rents and cannot replace actual unit comps. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard; its role here is to supply the relative ladder, not to report market transactions.","title":"Bedroom ladder is a model, not a comp set"},{"body":"The 30% income screen translates the current monthly index into $54,040 of annual income. It is arithmetic, not a recommendation or qualification threshold. ACS reports that 46.1% of renter households crossed the gross-rent burden threshold, but this is an area-level survey result that cannot determine a particular applicant’s budget or a specific unit’s affordability.","title":"Income screen and burden measure different questions"},{"body":"ZIP 87123 matches a Census ZCTA, but the ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. ACS stock and vacancy measures are five-year survey classifications. The Zillow history has full coverage and confirms positive but slower recent rent movement; its discovery ranks are backward-looking comparisons, not forecasts.","title":"History supports slower positive movement"}],"risks":["The sources observe different universes and periods: a current Zillow asking-rent index, an ACS five-year survey of occupied renter homes, a HUD standard, and a rolling resale sample. Apparent gaps can arise from definition and timing rather than a change in any individual property.","The bedroom ladder assumes the relative structure of local HUD standards when it scales the ZIP-wide ZORI. A unit’s actual bedroom count, size, condition, utilities, property type, and lease terms may differ materially from the modelled estimate, so it is not a bedroom-rent measurement.","Redfin’s figures are direct ZIP resale observations, but they reflect sold homes and listed homes rather than rental transactions. The sale median, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list metrics cannot establish rent, vacancy, operating costs, or performance for a particular rental property.","ACS survey estimates have stated uncertainty: the renter-household count has a 90% margin of error of 594 and the burdened-renter count has a margin of error of 479. Those ranges add caution when interpreting burden prevalence and housing composition at the ZCTA level."],"qa":[{"a":"It is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types. The $1,351 reading is not a recorded lease, an occupied-household median, or a bedroom-specific rent comp. Its 0.65% annual change describes the index’s movement, not the experience of every available listing.","q":"What does Zillow ZORI represent in this ZIP?"},{"a":"ACS reports median gross rent for occupied renter homes across a five-year survey and includes selected utilities. ZORI is a current typical asking-rent index across blended rental types. The difference therefore compares separate populations, rent concepts, and time windows; it does not show that a particular vacant listing is overpriced or underpriced.","q":"Why is the ACS figure lower than current ZORI?"},{"a":"Cooling means the one-year same-month ZORI gain of 0.65% is still positive but below the 2.80% and 5.45% annualized changes for the longer windows. Monthly-return variability and drawdown show that past readings moved around. This describes previous index behavior only and cannot forecast future rents or resale outcomes.","q":"What does cooling mean in the history?"},{"a":"No. It annualizes ZIP ZORI and divides it by the ZIP’s Redfin median sold price, combining an asking-rent index with resale data. It excludes property-specific terms and is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or evidence of a home’s actual rental economics.","q":"Can the rent-to-price number be used as yield?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + 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