At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 87124 was $1,684 per month. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a median lease or a quote for a specific home. The geographic label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matching Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The local index presents a notable context split: Rio Rancho city context rent was $1,857, Sandoval County context rent was $1,850, and Albuquerque, NM metro context rent was $1,522. Those are wider-area comparators, not substitutions for ZIP conditions; they place the ZIP below city and county context while above metro context.
The different rent universes sharpen that gap. In the matched Census ZCTA, ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent was $1,434, with a $67 margin of error. That measure describes occupied renter homes in a survey and includes selected utilities, while ZORI tracks observed asking rents. The asking-rent index consequently stood 17.4% above the ACS gross-rent median, a difference that should not be treated as an error or a measure of rent change. The differing source populations, timing, rental-type blend, and utility treatment mean these measures are not like-for-like. ACS is informative about occupied households in the matched statistical area, whereas ZORI is the current ZIP market index.
Bedroom detail should be read as a scaling model, not an observed listing tabulation. Using the local FY2026 HUD ladder to scale the ZIP ZORI produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,161 for a studio, $1,363 for one bedroom, $1,684 for two bedrooms, $2,342 for three bedrooms, and $2,760 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; it supplies the local ladder rather than confirming what any bedroom type is leasing for. Thus the two-bedroom figure aligns mechanically with the all-type ZIP index, and none of these modelled estimates should be presented as measured bedroom rents or used to infer a particular unit's price.
An arithmetic screen puts today’s index beside reported household resources and renter strain without establishing qualification. At a 30% rent-to-income threshold, $1,684 monthly implies $67,360 in annual income; this is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA’s median household income was $86,555, making the index equal to 23.3% of that broad household-income benchmark before household-specific expenses or utilities are considered. Yet ACS counted 4,718 renter-occupied homes and 2,572 renter households paying at least that share of income toward rent, a 54.5% burden share. This burden statistic is a survey-based household measure; it neither proves affordability nor establishes the cost or condition of any available unit.
Supply composition lends context but cannot identify actual availability. The ZCTA contained 23,482 housing units, of which 22,563 were occupied and 919 vacant, for a 3.9% vacancy rate. Of vacant homes, 377 were reported vacant for rent; that category does not document the asking price, lease terms, bedroom count, or immediate availability of a specific listing. Renters made up 20.9% of occupied homes. The housing stock included 19,701 single-family units, indicating a predominantly one-unit built form; separate large-multifamily counts do not make vacancy or stock categories proof about any individual property. Occupancy and stock figures are ACS five-year survey estimates for the ZCTA, not a real-time inventory.
Recent direction is positive but slower than the longer historical path. Exact same-month ZORI changes annualized to 1.7% over one year, 3.6% over three years, and 6.5% over five years through June 2026. The current one-year gain therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the stronger multi-year pace by decelerating materially. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.2%, and maximum drawdown was -1.2%, while the series had complete coverage across 100 observations. These backward-looking measurements describe index behavior, not a forecast or investment recommendation. The relatively low variability and shallow historical drawdown support more confidence in this current index snapshot than an irregular or highly volatile series would, but not confidence that a particular listing will match it. Transparent national discovery results were a 56.5 momentum score and rank 1,230, a 90.3 stability score and rank 282, and a 70.0 balanced score and rank 470; lower ranks are higher among history-eligible ZIPs.
Taken together, the evidence is most useful as a scoped market baseline: current asking-rent conditions lie between the higher city and county context indexes and the lower metro context index, while survey gross rent and survey burden describe a different, occupied-household universe. Neither the historic stability pattern nor the vacancy count converts into a promised rent, availability finding, or household outcome. A property-level comparison requires verification of the listing’s location within the delivery area, observation date, actual bedroom count and unit type, advertised rent, whether selected utilities are included, lease term, concessions, fees, and availability. It also needs to distinguish a quoted unit from the ZORI blend and from the HUD-based bedroom model. Which of those listing facts would materially change the comparison with the ZIP-wide index?
","findings":[{"body":"At the June 2026 reading, the 87124 Zillow asking-rent index was $1,684 monthly. Rio Rancho city context was $1,857 and Sandoval County context was $1,850, whereas Albuquerque metro context was $1,522. This places the ZIP below the first two wider-area readings and above the metro reading. These comparisons are context only, because each covers a geography broader than the ZIP market identifier.","title":"Current index sits between wider-area comparators"},{"body":"The matched ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent was $1,434, below the current ZORI by 17.4%. ACS surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; ZORI is a blended observed asking-rent index. The gap should be read as a scope and construction difference, not as a contradiction, rent-growth calculation, or proof of the price of a current listing.","title":"ZORI and survey rent are not interchangeable"},{"body":"At a 30% threshold, the index translates to $67,360 in annual income, versus a ZCTA median household income of $86,555. However, ACS estimated 54.5% of renter households devoted at least that share of income to rent. The first figure is a standardized arithmetic screen, while the second is a survey burden measure; neither is an applicant test or a finding about a particular available home.","title":"Income screen and burden measure answer different questions"},{"body":"Same-month annualized growth slowed from 6.5% over five years and 3.6% over three years to 1.7% over one year through June 2026. The series showed 2.2% annualized monthly-return variability, a -1.2% maximum drawdown, and complete coverage across 100 observations. These backward-looking signals support a cleaner index read, not a forecast. The stability discovery rank was 282, lower being higher among history-eligible ZIPs.","title":"Historical behavior was stable but decelerating"}],"risks":["The 87124 label is a Zillow market identifier and a Census ZCTA match, not a guarantee that every USPS delivery address or listing belongs to the same statistical area.","ZORI describes typical observed asking rents across rental types; it is not a signed-lease median, a unit-level quote, or evidence that a currently advertised home will transact at the index.","ACS gross rent and burden estimates are five-year survey measures for occupied renter homes, include selected utilities in gross rent, and carry sampling uncertainty that should not be collapsed into current asking rent.","HUD-based bedroom figures are modelled scaling estimates, while vacancy and housing-stock categories are area aggregates; neither confirms a unit’s bedroom, availability, condition, rent, fees, concessions, or included utilities."],"qa":[{"a":"At the June 2026 endpoint, the $1,684 figure is Zillow ZORI for the ZIP market identifier. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It does not identify a lease median, a particular bedroom type, a particular property, or the cost after every utility, fee, or concession.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure represent?"},{"a":"ACS reports a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched Census ZCTA, using median gross rent that includes selected utilities. ZORI records a current ZIP-level asking-rent index. Because universe, timing, utility treatment, and rent concept differ, the $1,434 ACS median should not be substituted for or compared as a like-for-like current listing rent.","q":"Why does the ACS median gross rent differ from ZORI?"},{"a":"The studio through four-bedroom figures were modelled by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking-rent evidence. Therefore, the figures organize a relative ladder, but do not measure observed rents for listings or leases in each bedroom category.","q":"How were the bedroom figures produced?"},{"a":"No. Dividing annualized ZORI by the 30% threshold produces a $67,360 annual-income screen, which is only arithmetic. It is not financial advice, an eligibility standard, or an applicant qualification rule. Reported ACS burden is a separate survey statistic and cannot determine a specific household’s affordability or a specific unit’s final housing cost.","q":"Does the $67,360 income screen determine affordability or tenant qualification?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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