At its June 2026 endpoint, the ZIP’s Zillow Observed Rent Index is $2,144 per month. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease-level or bedroom-specific measure. The exact same-month annualized history records a 5.54% one-year rise, 4.22% over three years, and 7.08% over five years. The observed history has 100% coverage, 3.12% annualized monthly-return variability, and a 1.54% maximum drawdown. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 369 for momentum, 1,805 for stability, and 611 for the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher. The recent increase continues the longer upward path rather than breaking it, although it is slower than the five-year pace. Full coverage supports continuity, but the variability measure and the lower stability rank relative to momentum temper confidence in one current rent snapshot. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The five-digit label 87501 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes puts median gross rent at $1,635, including selected utilities; that survey measure is 31.1% below the Zillow asking-rent index, so the gap is a source-universe distinction rather than a contradiction. For wider context only, the City of Santa Fe citywide rent context is $1,932, while the Santa Fe County countywide and Santa Fe, NM metro-wide contexts are each $1,931. Those city, county, and metro figures are context only, not ZIP rental comparables, and should not be merged into the ZIP observation.
Bedroom figures require a separate model qualification. The FY2026 local HUD ladder supplies an administrative, bedroom-specific FMR/SAFMR standard rather than asking rent; its two-bedroom standard is $1,685. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that local ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,602 for a studio, $1,769 for one bedroom, $2,144 for two bedrooms, $2,700 for three bedrooms, and $2,839 for four bedrooms. These figures are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they do not identify the rent of an available unit. The sequence is useful only for preserving the local HUD bedroom relationship within the ZIP asking-rent index, not for substituting an administrative standard or a model result for rental comps.
Affordability signals look tighter when the current asking index is placed against the income measure, but the calculation has a narrow meaning. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, the asking index corresponds to required annual income of $85,760; the ACS ZCTA median household-income estimate is $79,603. The annualized asking-rent screen equals 32.3% of that median income. This screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS renter survey, 1,573 of 3,187 renter households, or 49.4%, reported gross rent burden at or above the threshold. The burden statistic describes a survey distribution among occupied renter homes; it cannot prove what a specific household can pay or what any particular unit will cost.
Stock and vacancy data resist a simple availability reading. The ACS ZCTA contains 10,800 housing units, has a 15.1% vacancy rate, and has a 34.8% renter share. Its recorded stock includes 7,983 single-family units and 494 large-multifamily units, a composition that does not map directly to Zillow’s blended rental index. Of the vacant units classified in the survey, 42 are for rent and 873 are seasonal. These are survey classifications, not a current listing count, and neither the overall vacancy rate nor the for-rent count establishes the availability, condition, utilities, or attainable asking rent of a particular property. The result is a useful description of ZCTA housing composition, with a clear boundary against interpreting a vacancy figure as proof about an individual unit.
Redfin provides a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, a for-sale market record rather than rental transactions. The ZIP median sold price is $829,812, down 1.0% year over year; 71 homes sold and the median marketing time was 40 days. Reported resale inventory is 174 homes with 7.4 months of supply. In this resale context, months of supply expresses reported inventory relative to the observed selling pace, so it describes a sales inventory horizon rather than rental availability or a forecast. Sale-to-list evidence also stays in the resale universe: the average sale-to-list ratio is 97.4%, and 5.8% of sales closed above list. Together, completed sales, marketing time, inventory, supply, and list-price signals describe direct ZIP resale liquidity and pricing conditions, not lease negotiations, rents, or property operating results.
That resale evidence creates the report’s central tension. The current and longer historical ZORI measurements show a positive asking-rent path, while the direct resale record pairs a small median-price decline with reported supply and below-list average sales. It therefore challenges any simple reading that rent history, the income screen, and resale conditions are moving uniformly; it does not establish that one series causes another. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price produces a 3.1% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield, because the numerator is a blended asking-rent index and the denominator is a median completed sale, not matched property economics.
Each evidence stream has a distinct limit: Zillow does not observe a specific executed lease, ACS is a multi-year ZCTA survey of occupied homes, HUD is an administrative benchmark, and Redfin reflects completed ZIP resales. A property-level record would need the advertised rent and effective date, exact unit type and bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, current availability, and the relationship of the unit to the blended index. For a sale comparison, the record would also need the property type, sale and list status, condition, and whether the transaction is comparable to the unit under review. These checks keep the asking-rent, survey, HUD, and resale universes separate instead of converting them into a single value. The remaining question is: does the specific property’s current evidence match the scope and timing of the signal being used?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s $2,144 ZIP asking-rent index has a 5.54% same-month one-year gain, compared with annualized gains of 4.22% over three years and 7.08% over five years. The current direction aligns with the historical upward path, but not at the faster five-year rate. Full history coverage reduces missing-data concern; the index still blends rental types and cannot serve as a quote for a named unit.","title":"Positive rent history, tempered snapshot confidence"},{"body":"The ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA median gross rent is $1,635 and includes selected utilities, whereas ZIP ZORI is $2,144. The 31.1% gap reflects different universes: surveyed occupied renter homes versus a blended asking-rent index. The $85,760 result at the 30% screen is arithmetic; it is not a tenant qualification threshold.","title":"Survey rent and asking rent answer different questions"},{"body":"The stock data show 10,800 ZCTA units, a 15.1% vacancy rate, and 42 units classified for rent in the survey, while 873 are classified seasonal. Vacancy categories do not operate as live availability data. They say nothing conclusive about a specific unit’s condition, utility package, advertised rent, or move-in timing.","title":"Vacancy is not live rental availability"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month resale record has a $829,812 median sold price, 71 homes sold, 40 median days on market, and 7.4 months of supply. With price down 1.0% and average sale-to-list at 97.4%, resale signals do not uniformly echo the positive asking-rent history. This is a for-sale observation, not a rental transaction sample.","title":"Resale signals challenge a uniform-strength reading"}],"risks":["ZORI’s blended asking-rent index does not encode a property’s bedroom count, condition, utility inclusions, lease timing, or availability. A specific property can therefore differ materially from the ZIP-level figure.","The ACS ZCTA is a five-year survey geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its occupied-home median gross rent includes selected utilities. Boundary and universe differences can widen apparent gaps between rent measures.","Vacancy and seasonal classifications are survey counts, not a live inventory feed. They cannot demonstrate that a particular dwelling is vacant, rentable, competitively priced, or available on a desired date.","Redfin’s sales metrics and the 3.1% rent-price screen join unlike sources. The ratio has no expense, financing, operating, or matched-property inputs and cannot establish property-level economics."],"qa":[{"a":"They describe different universes. Zillow’s figure is typical observed asking rent across a blend of rental types at ZIP scope. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. The gap therefore cannot be read as a change in a single unit’s rent.","q":"Why is Zillow asking rent above the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The model preserves a local size relationship, but it does not measure a market rent, actual advertised listing, or signed lease for any bedroom count.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rental comps?"},{"a":"Within Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale data, months of supply relates reported for-sale inventory to the observed selling pace. The 7.4-month value is therefore a resale stock-flow indicator. It does not count rental vacancies, establish a lease-up time, or say what a tenant would face in the rental market.","q":"What does months of supply mean in this report?"},{"a":"The 3.1% figure is annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price, making it a cross-source screening ratio. It can flag a contrast between rent and resale levels, but it omits property matching and property-level operating details. It cannot be treated as a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"What can be inferred from the 3.1% rent-price screen?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1431.944815},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1466.185241},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1457.837698},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1472.82759},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1496.894321},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1501.143244},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1522.487352},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1566.492905},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1582.127754},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1606.823227},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1633.848004},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1638.434834},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1644.473048},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1632.473068},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1662.629791},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1691.776821},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1722.434323},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1757.677604},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1779.321998},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1779.586714},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1782.123523},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1775.124819},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1779.394501},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1777.937447},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1799.850612},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1831.524228},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1853.919036},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1862.675008},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1861.069267},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1886.019055},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1893.890837},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1901.393606},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1911.054016},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1914.371691},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1927.905966},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1924.086172},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1914.614496},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1928.369369},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1942.008812},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1974.814298},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1976.238801},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1977.57104},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1968.920973},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2002.256886},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1995.22312},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2018.755437},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1994.336115},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2032.571196},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2032.313145},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2048.69839},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2022.59794},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2025.735054},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2040.085869},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2029.419118},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2031.227996},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2017.179809},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2033.780418},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2032.389266},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2059.605996},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2049.820017},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2067.585058},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2060.294071},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2086.588669},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2085.466476},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2094.713412},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2118.727955},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2143.857864}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":67,"firstPeriod":"2020-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":67,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2031.227996,"endRent":2143.857864,"change":0.05544915106615145,"cagr":0.05544915106615145},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1893.890837,"endRent":2143.857864,"change":0.13198597412085178,"cagr":0.04219027245377105},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1522.487352,"endRent":2143.857864,"change":0.40812852151693924,"cagr":0.07084955128918247}},"maxDrawdown":-0.01538468578578811,"annualizedVolatility":0.03116537613610679,"consecutiveReturnCount":66}}