Santa Fe’s five-digit 87505 label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match used here. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP ZORI is $1,777 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it tracks market-level asking-rent behavior rather than a lease quote for a particular vacant home. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP; that distinction means the Census comparison is a geographic match, not a perfect delivery-ZIP tabulation. The current index is therefore a useful broad benchmark, but not a measure of every unit, bedroom count, condition, term, or concession.
The history signals a positive but much slower recent path than the full earlier stretch. Exact same-month ZORI change was 1.4% annualized over one year, 1.0% over three years, and 4.9% over five years. The newest direction therefore confirms that rents are still higher than at comparable prior dates, while breaking from the much faster long-window pace. The record contains 66 observations and 100% coverage. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.1%, and the maximum drawdown was a 2.0% decline, which supports moderate—not absolute—confidence in a single current snapshot. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,903 for momentum, 1,754 for stability, and 2,131 for the balanced measure; lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
That asking-rent benchmark should not be substituted for the matched Census result. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, the ZCTA median gross rent was $1,384, with a $72 margin of error; it describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The asking-rent index is 28.4% above that survey median, a difference consistent with distinct populations and rent concepts rather than a direct contradiction. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom fair-market-rent standard is $1,685, making the index 5.5% higher. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and it does not establish the advertised rent of a particular apartment or house. These three source universes answer different questions.
The bedroom view is deliberately a model, not a new set of observed rents. By scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder, the modelled monthly estimates are $1,328 for a studio, $1,466 for one bedroom, $1,777 for two bedrooms, $2,238 for three bedrooms, and $2,353 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: the construction preserves the ZIP index and local HUD bedroom relationships rather than counting listings by size. The HUD ladder supplies the relative bedroom pattern, but its administrative purpose does not make each estimate an asking-rent observation. A unit’s actual quote can differ with included utilities, furnishing, lease terms, concessions, and other listing-specific details that this scaling method does not observe.
Affordability looks different when the current asking index is set beside household income and reported burden. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, paying $1,777 for a full year requires $71,080 in annual income by arithmetic. That is below the ZCTA’s $78,247 median household income, and the index equals 27.3% of that median when expressed as a monthly share. This screen is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule; it neither measures taxes, debts, household size, nor utility arrangements. In ACS burden reporting, 3,053 of 6,598 renter households, or 46.3%, paid at least 30% of income toward rent. That survey burden measure describes households, not the affordability or likely approval of a specific available unit.
Housing inventory information adds caution rather than a direct availability count. The matched ZCTA has 18,906 housing units; 2,260 are vacant, producing a 12.0% vacancy rate. Among the vacant categories, 427 are recorded as for rent and 943 as seasonal. The structure mix is numerically more single-family than large-multifamily, while occupied homes include both owner and renter households. Those stock and vacancy figures are broad Census conditions, not proof that a unit is immediately marketable, appropriately priced, in acceptable condition, or comparable with ZORI. They also do not identify the number of active listings, the time a vacancy has been open, or whether an advertised rent reflects utilities or concessions.
For wider rent context, the Santa Fe city scope shows $1,932, while the Santa Fe County and Santa Fe, NM metro scopes each show $1,931; each is a broader-area context value rather than a ZIP estimate. The city, county, and metro comparisons sit above the ZIP index, but they cannot establish a property-level price or explain why places differ. A property-level comparison requires verification of the listing’s precise location, bedroom count, property type, condition, available date, lease length, included utilities, deposits and fees, concessions, and whether the shown rent is current. It should also match the advertised home to the relevant source universe before drawing conclusions. The decision-useful closing question is whether that unit’s fully specified quote is comparable to the modelled bedroom estimate or merely shares the same broad ZIP label.
","findings":[{"body":"At $1,777 in June 2026, the ZIP ZORI is a current broad asking-rent benchmark, not a unit quote. The same-month history remains positive in the latest period but is far below the five-year annualized pace. Full observation coverage and a shallow recorded maximum drawdown strengthen continuity, while the measured volatility still argues against treating a single index reading as precise for every listing.","title":"Current index and slower growth"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent and Zillow ZORI should be read side by side, not collapsed into one number. The ACS result covers occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities; ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types. HUD’s bedroom-specific FMR/SAFMR is instead an administrative standard. Each measure is valid within its own universe but unsuitable as a direct substitute for the others.","title":"Separate rent universes"},{"body":"Bedroom figures are generated by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP ZORI. They preserve a relative size pattern and provide a consistent comparison frame from studio through larger units. They are modelled monthly estimates, not measured bedroom rents or tabulations of active listings. Listing-specific terms, included utilities, condition, furnishing, and concessions may place an actual quote away from the modelled value.","title":"Bedroom estimates are modelled"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen places the index below the area median household income at the stated rent share, while the ACS burden result shows that a substantial share of renter households reported paying at least the burden threshold. Housing-unit vacancy and vacant-for-rent counts add context, but neither identifies current listings nor proves accessibility, price, condition, or suitability for any particular home.","title":"Burden and vacancy need unit-level confirmation"}],"risks":["The Census ZCTA is a statistical approximation to the ZIP identifier, not a USPS delivery ZIP. Boundary and universe differences can make Census characteristics imperfect matches for a specific listed address.","ZORI blends rental types and describes a typical observed asking-rent index; it does not reveal a home’s size, utilities, lease term, fees, concessions, condition, or exact advertised price.","The ACS estimates are five-year survey measures with published margins of error and describe occupied renter homes. They are not contemporaneous asking-rent records or household-level evidence for an applicant.","Vacancy categories and the count recorded as for rent are area aggregates. They cannot establish whether any particular unit is active, available on a given date, affordable, or acceptable."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI measures a typical ZIP-level observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. They have different timing, covered homes, and rent definitions, so their gap should not be treated as an error or as a unit-level premium.","q":"Why do Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent differ?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and the method does not count active listings or measure signed or advertised rents separately by bedroom.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents?"},{"a":"It divides the annualized index rent by thirty percent of income to show the income amount mathematically associated with that share. It is not budgeting advice, a recommendation, an applicant qualification criterion, or a finding about an individual household’s taxes, debts, savings, utilities, or eligibility.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"No. The growth rates, monthly-return volatility, maximum drawdown, coverage, and discovery ranks summarize observed ZORI history through the stated endpoint. They indicate how the series has behaved, including a recent slowdown relative to the longer window, but do not predict future rents or support an investment recommendation.","q":"Does the history predict future rents?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1337.762294},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1340.808879},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1356.923313},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1367.242656},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1380.214547},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1398.388029},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1434.105352},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1478.128067},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1501.243377},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1482.642766},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1488.45873},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1522.290322},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1559.793512},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1566.484073},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1572.198674},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1582.842857},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1602.082023},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1603.099008},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1603.678054},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1611.448485},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1620.948195},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1640.904239},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1656.808198},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1660.520933},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1648.748083},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1661.667058},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1677.906754},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1704.793321},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1710.30972},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1726.904313},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1716.796643},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1701.411061},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1692.242199},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1719.215448},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1753.064609},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1764.536862},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1765.985958},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1759.171257},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1763.083809},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1761.167634},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1766.163126},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1765.38717},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1778.459937},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1776.828528},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1775.789684},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1750.401733},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1757.217121},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1764.974459},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1779.363597},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1782.177749},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1774.377144},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1771.712915},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1757.359342},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1753.357911},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1753.391144},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1764.774611},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1772.578565},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1780.416818},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1760.622683},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1752.8713},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1747.587365},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1750.723753},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1756.459734},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1759.131712},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1771.462567},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1777.158162}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":66,"firstPeriod":"2021-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":66,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1753.357911,"endRent":1777.158162,"change":0.01357409736522408,"cagr":0.01357409736522408},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1726.904313,"endRent":1777.158162,"change":0.029100540557860155,"cagr":0.00960757900066711},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1398.388029,"endRent":1777.158162,"change":0.2708619675976931,"cagr":0.049106738624937085}},"maxDrawdown":-0.020071820852531452,"annualizedVolatility":0.030803490576802265,"consecutiveReturnCount":65}}