At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow ZORI for ZIP 87507 is $1,920 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a quote for any one unit. Exact same-month history records a -1.06% 1-year change and a -0.49% annualized 3-year change, against a +4.68% annualized 5-year change. The recent softening therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer positive path. This is designated high variability: annualized monthly-return variability was 3.94% and maximum drawdown was -5.82%. History has complete coverage through that endpoint. Transparent national discovery ranks were 2,638 for momentum, 2,564 for stability, and 2,825 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher; they describe backward-looking discovery, not a forecast or investment view.
That current asking-rent index should not be substituted for the matched Census ZCTA result. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,412, and ZORI is 36.0% higher. ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; it is not an asking-rent series. The difference can reflect distinct universes, timing, and rent concepts, so it does not establish that a particular new listing is overpriced or that an occupied home would ask the index value.
HUD provides a separate anchor, not a competing asking-rent measure. The FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,685, and ZIP ZORI is 13.9% higher. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. To make the size gradient usable, the ZIP index is scaled by the local HUD ladder: the resulting modelled monthly estimates are $1,435 for a studio, $1,584 for one bedroom, $1,920 for two bedrooms, $2,418 for three bedrooms, and $2,542 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and should not be read as evidence that any available unit carries those asks.
The household-income tension is more immediate than an abstract rent change. Applying the 30% screen to the current index yields a required annual income of $76,800; the matched ZCTA median household income is $70,398, so index rent is 32.7% of that annual median income. This is only arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. ACS reports that 51.4% of renter households pay at least 30% of income toward rent. That burden measure is a population-level survey result; it cannot show a given renter’s resources or whether a particular lease is affordable.
The housing base puts that burden statistic and current snapshot in context. The matched ZCTA has 21,974 housing units and a 5.7% overall vacancy rate. Renters occupy 32.7% of occupied homes, while the stock contains both single-family and larger multifamily units. The packet identifies 342 units vacant for rent, alongside units vacant for sale or seasonal use, but these are aggregate counts rather than live listings. Vacancy does not prove that a specific unit is available, competitively priced, or suitable, and it cannot reconcile the index, ACS, and HUD measures into one unit-level rent.
Broader figures sit close to the ZIP index but remain context only. The Santa Fe city context asking-rent value is $1,932, the Santa Fe County context asking-rent value is $1,931, and the Santa Fe, NM metro context asking-rent value is $1,931. Each covers a wider geography than the matched ZCTA and can contain different housing mixes and listing patterns. Those figures are reference points with a wider scope than the ZIP-level observation, rather than measurements of the smaller geography itself. Their proximity is useful as a scale check, not a substitute for ZIP evidence or a basis for assigning a unit a rent.
Confidence in a single current reading should be moderate, not absolute: the historical series is fully observed, yet its high variability, recent declines, and prior drawdown show that one index endpoint is not a stable property-level promise. Coverage lowers missing-history risk, but it does not remove definition, timing, or composition differences among sources. ACS survey estimates also carry reported margins of error. The index blends rental types, so the relevant unit may depart from the typical series level. This is backward-looking measurement only, with no forecast, causal claim, or investment recommendation. Before using the figures for a real decision, check the specific property’s advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, concessions, availability date, condition, and application requirements. Which of those property-level facts changes the comparison most materially for the unit under review?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI is $1,920 in June 2026. Same-month measurements show declines over one and three years while the five-year annualized result remains positive. High-variability classification, 3.94% annualized monthly-return variability, and a -5.82% maximum drawdown mean the current reading is a timely index benchmark but not a stable unit-specific price promise. The complete observed history supports continuity, not a forecast.","title":"Recent path has reversed the longer gain"},{"body":"The rental concepts need to stay separate. ZIP ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The modelled bedroom values scale the ZIP index using HUD’s local ladder; they are not measured bedroom rents or live listing quotes.","title":"Rental sources answer different questions"},{"body":"The required-income calculation turns the index into a transparent screen: applying thirty percent produces $76,800, compared with a $70,398 matched-ZCTA median household income. It is arithmetic only, not qualification guidance. ACS reports that 51.4% of renter households pay at least thirty percent of income toward rent. That population statistic does not determine an individual household’s capacity or a property’s affordability.","title":"Income screen and burden point to a meaningful gap"},{"body":"The ZCTA’s 5.7% overall vacancy rate and aggregate vacant-for-rent category do not identify a unit that can be leased. Wider Santa Fe city, Santa Fe County, and Santa Fe, NM metro figures are context rather than substitutes for ZIP evidence. For a property-level comparison, verify the advertised asking rent, bedroom count, utility treatment, lease terms, concessions, condition, availability date, and application requirements.","title":"Vacancy is not live availability"}],"risks":["The current Zillow figure is an index of typical observed asking rents across blended rental types. It can differ from a specific property’s advertised rent, timing, utility treatment, and lease terms.","ACS is a lagged five-year survey of occupied renter homes in a matched ZCTA, with margins of error, and its gross-rent definition includes selected utilities. It is neither a current listing feed nor a USPS ZIP delivery measure.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard rather than market asking rent. The bedroom ladder shown here is a model that scales ZORI with HUD ratios, so it cannot verify measured rents for any bedroom category.","Aggregate vacancy, burden, and city/county/metro context figures cannot establish availability, affordability, or pricing for a particular unit. Historical gains, declines, ranks, and volatility are backward-looking observations, not forecasts, causation, or investment recommendations."],"qa":[{"a":"They cover different evidence universes. ZORI is a June 2026 ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS is a 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. The reported gap therefore compares distinct definitions, geographies, and timing; it does not price a particular listing.","q":"Why does ZORI exceed ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates. They start with ZIP ZORI and apply relative values from the local FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. HUD is an administrative standard, not asking rent, so the outputs cannot be treated as observed rents, listing medians, or guarantees for a particular unit.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates measured asking rents?"},{"a":"The $76,800 amount is the annual income produced by applying the thirty percent screen to the current index. It is a transparent arithmetic comparison between the index and reported median household income. It is not financial advice, an affordability verdict, or an applicant screening rule; actual household obligations and lease terms are not supplied.","q":"What does the 30% income amount mean?"},{"a":"No. The ZCTA vacancy rate is an aggregate housing-stock ratio, and the packet separately recognizes homes vacant for rent, sale, or seasonal use. Neither source provides a live unit inventory, asking-price history for a property, condition details, utility inclusions, or lease terms. A property-level check must confirm those facts directly.","q":"Does the vacancy rate show units available today?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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