ZIP 89014 presents an affordability tension rather than a single clean rent signal. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,468 per month. A 30% required-income screen on that index equals $58,720 annually, below the matched ZCTA’s $73,284 median household income and yielding a 24.0% asking-rent-to-income screen. It is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Yet ACS counts 4,650 of 8,059 occupied renter households, or 57.7%, as paying at least that threshold for gross rent. This difference makes it unsafe to treat the current index as a broad statement about experienced renter affordability: current asking rents and the costs reported by occupied households answer different questions.
That five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The ACS 2024 five-year result of $1,700 is instead median gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD’s FY 2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent standard of $1,735 is an administrative, bedroom-specific benchmark, not an asking rent. These distinct universes explain why their dollar levels can diverge without establishing an error or a rent quote for any particular home.
To create a bedroom view, the local HUD ladder scales—not measures—the ZIP ZORI. The resulting modelled monthly estimates are $1,128 for a studio, $1,251 for one bedroom, $1,468 for two bedrooms, $2,042 for three bedrooms, and $2,339 for four bedrooms. They preserve the local HUD bedroom relationship while anchoring the ladder to the ZIP’s all-type asking-rent index. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and should not be substituted for unit-level asking rents, leases, or completed rental transactions. In particular, the comparison does not establish that a currently available apartment of a stated size can be rented at the displayed amount.
The direct Zillow ZIP history places the current read in a cooling sequence. At the stated endpoint, exact same-month ZORI changes are -2.60% over one year, -0.29% annualized over three years, and +1.57% annualized over five years. Annualized monthly-return variability is 2.95%, maximum drawdown is -5.35%, and history coverage is 100%. Thus, recent declines align with the shorter three-year direction but break from the positive five-year path. The variation and drawdown argue for limited confidence in any one current rent snapshot, even with complete coverage. These are backward-looking observations, not forecasts, investment recommendations, or claims about the next lease.
The transparent national discovery ranks, among history-eligible ZIPs and with lower ranks placing higher, are 2,764 for momentum, 1,536 for stability, and 2,628 for the balanced measure. They are descriptive sorting tools, not forecasts. For wider context only, the Henderson city context asking-rent value is $1,826, the Clark County context asking-rent value is $1,748, and the Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV metro context asking-rent value is $1,748; each comparison is named at its broader scope rather than treated as a ZIP rental comp. The ZIP index sits below those context values, a level comparison that does not reconcile the source differences described above.
Stock data add a separate, survey-based backdrop. The matched ZCTA has 18,129 housing units, with 17,088 occupied and 1,041 vacant, a 5.7% vacancy rate. Its 8,059 renter-occupied homes represent a 47.2% renter share of occupied homes, and 462 units are classified vacant for rent. These counts do not identify a current advertised unit or prove vacancy at a particular property; survey vacancy classifications and rental listings are different evidence. They also reflect an area-wide survey estimate rather than a current census of units being offered to renters. The renter share is above the city and county context shares, but it does not determine a household’s rent burden, lease terms, or ability to locate a suitable home.
Redfin supplies a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions. Its median sold price is $404,908, down 6.6% year over year; 118 homes sold, with median marketing time of 53 days. The for-sale inventory count is 161 homes and months of supply is 4.1. Average sale-to-list is 98.2%, while 13.1% sold above list and 26.8% went off market within two weeks. These sale, listing, and marketing indicators describe resale liquidity and seller-buyer conditions only. They cannot be used as rental comps, nor do they report income, operating costs, or the terms of any lease.
The $4.35% annualized-ZORI-to-median-price figure is solely a cross-source screening ratio linking Zillow’s index to Redfin’s ZIP median sold price; it is not a property-level economic measure. The concurrent resale-price decline and recent ZORI cooling confirm directional softening across two separate series, while the burden result challenges a simple affordability interpretation. Important limits remain: ACS is a multi-year survey, HUD is a standard, and resale results are not leases. For a property-level decision, check its live asking rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease duration, actual availability, listing status, and directly relevant sale terms before extending any ZIP-wide signal to that property. Nor does any series identify a unit’s physical condition, service obligations, or the timing of an executed agreement. Do those checks support that extension?
","findings":[{"body":"The June ZORI sits below the ZCTA median-income screen, but ACS shows a majority of occupied renter households at or above the burden threshold. This is not contradictory once scopes are preserved: ZORI observes typical current asks across rental types, while ACS summarizes occupied renter homes’ gross rent, including selected utilities, over its survey period. The screen is arithmetic rather than an applicant rule.","title":"Affordability measures diverge"},{"body":"Same-month ZORI history declines over both the recent one-year period and the annualized three-year period, whereas the five-year annualized change remains positive. Annualized variability and the recorded maximum drawdown qualify the precision of a single current index level. Full history coverage improves continuity, but neither rank outputs nor prior changes establish a future path or an investment outcome.","title":"Cooling is short- and medium-term, not whole-history"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom values are generated by scaling the ZIP’s all-type ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for keeping relative bedroom spacing consistent with the local administrative standard, but they are not observed asking rents, signed leases, or rent comparables. Any unit assessment still needs the actual bedroom count, utilities, availability, and lease terms.","title":"HUD-scaled bedroom ladder is modelled"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling three-month ZIP evidence shows a lower median sold price year over year, measurable sales volume, marketing-time information, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. That for-sale evidence moves in the same broad cooling direction as recent ZORI history, yet it does not price leases. The annualized-rent-to-price calculation remains only a cross-source screen, without property operating information.","title":"Resale softening is a separate confirmation, not a rental comp"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS gross rent, HUD standards, and Redfin resale data measure different populations, periods, and transaction types; treating their gaps as a single market price would overstate precision.","The burden percentage is a ZCTA survey estimate for renter households and cannot establish that any particular available unit is affordable, occupied, vacant, or utility-inclusive.","HUD’s bedroom-specific standard can structure a modelled ladder, but the resulting figures may differ from a property’s live asking price, bedroom layout, included utilities, lease duration, and listing status.","Redfin sales metrics cover resale activity rather than rental transactions; a ZIP median sold price, supply reading, or sale-to-list result cannot identify a building’s expenses, condition, financing, or lease economics."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. HUD Fair Market Rent is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Different timing, populations, and included costs mean the figures are not alternate observations of the same lease price.","q":"Why can Zillow, ACS, and HUD rent figures differ?"},{"a":"The five-digit label is used here as Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and as the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not a USPS delivery ZIP. Therefore its survey-based income, stock, vacancy, and burden measures describe the statistical match rather than postal delivery routes.","q":"What geographic match does the label represent?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the all-type ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They maintain a relative bedroom pattern from that administrative standard, but are never measured bedroom rents. A property review needs its actual asking rent, bedroom count, utility inclusion, availability, and lease terms.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates measured rents?"},{"a":"Redfin gives direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale information on sold prices, sales volume, marketing time, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list behavior. It can confirm or challenge rent-history direction, but it is not rental evidence. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price creates only a cross-source screening ratio and cannot supply unit operating, lease, or transaction economics.","q":"What does the Redfin observation add to the rent screen?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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