ZIP 89074 has a meaningful split between a gently positive asking-rent reading and softer resale pricing. Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, is $1,719, up 0.9% from the same month a year earlier. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Against that rent reading, Redfin’s direct ZIP for-sale observation reports a $439,901 median sold price, down 10.2% year over year. The contrast does not establish a relationship between the two markets, but it makes a single favorable rent direction insufficient on its own.
Broader rental context is slightly above the ZIP’s current asking-rent index: Henderson city context is $1,826, while Clark County context and Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV metro context are each $1,748. Those are wider-geography rental benchmarks, not ZIP substitutes. The matched Census ZCTA ACS five-year median gross rent is $1,883, placing Zillow’s asking-rent index 8.7% below it. This is not necessarily a disagreement about like-for-like units. Zillow ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Lease vintage, utility treatment, and the distinction between occupied homes and current listings all limit direct comparison.
The bedroom view is a modelled ZIP ladder rather than a set of measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,321 for a studio, $1,464 for one bedroom, $1,719 for two bedrooms, $2,391 for three bedrooms, and $2,739 for four bedrooms. The local HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,735. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent observation, so the close two-bedroom relationship should not be read as proof that actual two-bedroom listings lease at either figure. The ladder is most useful as a consistent sizing screen when unit-level rents are unavailable.
The income screen is less strained than the burden data might initially imply, but the measures answer different questions. Paying the ZIP asking-rent index at a 30% income share requires $68,760 in annual income, below the ZCTA’s $87,407 median household income; the index therefore equals 23.6% of that median income in simple arithmetic. That calculation is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence of affordability for any household. Separately, ACS reports that 4,493 of 8,520 renter households, or 52.7%, paid at least 30% of income toward rent. The burden statistic reflects surveyed occupied renter households and their actual circumstances, not a claim about a particular available unit.
The matched ZCTA housing base contains 22,525 housing units, with a 6.7% vacancy rate and a 40.5% renter share. Single-family structures account for 16,048 units, compared with 1,757 units in large multifamily buildings, giving useful but incomplete context for the types of homes represented in the area’s inventory. There are 518 vacant units classified for rent. Henderson city context has a lower vacancy rate than the ZIP, while Clark County context has a higher rate; those wider geographies should be treated as directional context rather than direct evidence about ZIP availability. Neither the vacancy measure nor the renter share identifies the condition, rent, lease status, or competitiveness of an individual property.
Historical ZORI readings support the stable-growth label, while also showing that the recent path is slower than the longer one. Exact same-month growth was 0.9% over 1 year, 0.9% over 3 years, and 2.6% over 5 years. Thus, the recent direction remains positive but does not fully confirm the stronger five-year pace. Measured month-to-month rent-return variability annualizes to 2.6%, which supports moderate confidence in the current index while cautioning against treating one monthly reading as a fixed market level. The maximum drawdown was 5.0%, a separate indication that the historical path included pullbacks. The record has 138 observations and 100% reported coverage. Transparent national discovery ranks place stability at 920 and momentum at 2049 among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are higher; these are backward-looking discovery tools, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Resale liquidity presents the clearest counterweight to the rent history. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, 179 homes sold with a median marketing time of 57 days. The record shows 440 active listings and inventory of 217 homes, alongside 3.7 months of supply. Sellers received an average 98.4% of list price, and 13.8% of sales closed above list. These are for-sale market measures only, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. The decline in median sold price and below-list average sale signal challenge the otherwise positive rent-history screen, even though asking rents remained modestly positive. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
Several limits remain material before treating the ZIP indicators as property-specific evidence. ZORI, ACS, HUD, and Redfin use different populations, time windows, and definitions, so no source establishes a unit’s market rent or household affordability by itself. Concrete property-level checks include current same-bedroom asking rents, lease start dates, utility inclusions, concessions, actual days listed, property condition, available inventory, and the difference between listed and executed lease terms. A reader also needs to separate a home’s resale listing position from its rental position. The central unresolved question is whether any specific available unit resembles the broad ZORI mix and the modelled bedroom ladder closely enough for these ZIP-level screens to be useful.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI is $1,719, below Henderson’s $1,826 rental context, Clark County’s $1,748 context, and the matched ZCTA ACS median gross rent of $1,883. The ACS comparison requires caution because it covers occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities, unlike Zillow’s current asking-rent index.","title":"Asking rents are below several broad benchmarks"},{"body":"The 30% required-income screen implies $68,760 of annual income for the ZIP asking-rent index, versus a ZCTA median household income of $87,407. Yet ACS reports that 52.7% of renter households are rent burdened. The first measure is arithmetic using a market index; the second summarizes surveyed occupied renter households.","title":"Income arithmetic and renter burden point in different directions"},{"body":"Same-month ZORI growth was 0.9% over both one and three years, compared with 2.6% over five years. Annualized variability of 2.6% and a 5.0% maximum drawdown indicate a relatively contained but not frictionless historical path. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts of future asking rents.","title":"Rent history is positive but slower than its longer path"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale record shows a $439,901 median sold price that was 10.2% lower year over year, with 57 median days on market and an average sale-to-list ratio below full list price. That resale softness contrasts with positive asking-rent history, but it does not demonstrate that rental demand, lease pricing, or a particular property’s economics changed.","title":"Resale evidence challenges the rent-only reading"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI, ACS gross rent, HUD standards, and Redfin resale data represent different populations and timing conventions. Apparent gaps can reflect definitions, utilities, lease vintages, bedroom mix, and market coverage rather than a change in any specific property.","The modelled bedroom estimates inherit ZIP ZORI and the local HUD ladder rather than observing leases or listings by bedroom count. They can misstate a property’s market position when unit quality, utilities, concessions, or bedroom mix differ from the broad ZIP pattern.","The historical rent series is complete in reported coverage but remains backward-looking. Positive recent same-month changes do not remove the prior drawdown, establish future rent growth, or support conclusions about future lease execution for a particular unit.","Redfin’s figures describe ZIP resale transactions during a rolling three-month period, not rental transactions. Sale prices, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list ratios cannot be converted into property-level rental income, operating costs, or tenant demand evidence."],"qa":[{"a":"The two measures are not designed to match. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Differences in lease timing, utility treatment, household mix, and occupied versus currently marketed homes can all affect the comparison.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent index lower than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI level using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard and not asking rent. The estimates are therefore a sizing framework, not measured listing rents or executed leases.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"It shows the annual income mathematically required for the ZIP asking-rent index to equal 30% of income. It does not account for debts, household size, utilities outside the underlying measure, savings, concessions, credit, or qualification standards. It is not advice and does not determine whether any applicant can afford or qualify for a specific rental.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen say about affordability?"},{"a":"Use Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP results as a separate for-sale liquidity and pricing screen. The median sold price, inventory, marketing time, months of supply, and sale-to-list measures describe resale transactions rather than rental activity. Comparing annualized ZORI with sale price produces only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate or expected return.","q":"How should the resale data be used alongside the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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