ZIP 89123 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The current Zillow ZORI is $1,805, with a 2.1% same-month increase; it is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-level rent quote. The matched ACS five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,737 for occupied renter homes, and that measure includes selected utilities. The narrow difference signals broad alignment between the current asking-rent index and the survey-based occupied-home measure, while their populations and construction remain different.
The backward-looking Zillow history shows same-month annualized change of 2.1% over one year, 2.0% over three years, and 3.7% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms a positive longer path but is slower than the five-year pace rather than accelerating from it. History coverage is 100%, supporting continuity of the observed series. Monthly rent-return variability annualized to 2.3%, which supports more confidence in the current index than a highly erratic series would. The largest observed peak-to-trough decline was 2.3%, showing that historical declines occurred but were limited in the available path. Transparent national discovery ranks were 1,481 for momentum, 365 for stability, and 715 for the combined balance among history-eligible ZIPs; these are discovery measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The local HUD ladder provides a bedroom structure for modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI through that ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,387 for a studio, $1,538 for one bedroom, $1,805 for two bedrooms, $2,510 for three bedrooms, and $2,876 for four bedrooms. The corresponding HUD figures are $1,333, $1,478, $1,735, $2,413, and $2,764. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and the modelled values inherit both the ZIP-wide ZORI level and the local HUD bedroom relationships. They cannot identify the rent of a specific available unit.
The affordability screen is mixed. Median household income in the matched ACS ZCTA is $84,428, while the arithmetic income needed to keep the current $1,805 ZORI at 30% of gross income is $72,200. That places the ZIP-wide asking-rent-to-income screen at 25.7%, but it is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Separately, 55.8% of the 9,243 occupied renter households reported housing-cost burden at or above that threshold in the ACS survey. Housing inventory includes 24,820 units, an 8.2% overall vacancy rate, 474 units vacant for rent, and a 40.6% renter share. Those aggregate conditions describe the ZCTA housing stock; vacancy and burden do not prove availability, affordability, or conditions at any particular unit.
Wider-market rent context is slightly lower than the ZIP index: Las Vegas city context is $1,721.81, Clark County context is $1,748, and Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV metro context is also $1,748. Each is a broader geographic comparison, not a substitute observation for ZIP 89123. The ZIP’s current asking-rent index sits above all three reference figures, but the differences are modest enough that they do not overturn the closer agreement between ZIP ZORI and the local ACS gross-rent measure. City, county, and metro income, burden, renter-share, and vacancy measures remain context only because they cover different populations and geographic scopes.
Resale evidence introduces the central tension. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation records a $424,904 median sold price, down 7.5% from a year earlier, alongside 181 homes sold and a median 61 days on market. The same resale dataset shows 454 active listings, reported inventory of 234 homes, and 3.9 months of supply. Sellers received an average 98.1% of list price; 15.4% of sales closed above list, while 26.1% went off market within two weeks. These are for-sale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. The contrast is clear: asking rent was rising modestly while the median resale price was lower. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 5.1% cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
Several measurement boundaries matter before combining the signals. Zillow ZORI summarizes observed asking rents across rental types, whereas ACS represents occupied renter homes over a survey period and incorporates selected utilities. HUD is a policy standard, and Redfin measures ZIP resale outcomes in a rolling observation window. Thus, the close ZORI-to-ACS relationship cannot establish that current listings include utilities, match occupied-home quality, or mirror any bedroom mix. Likewise, price softening in the resale data does not establish a change in rental demand or a property’s economics. A property-level conclusion requires verification of the actual bedroom count, current competing asking rents, lease term, concessions, utility responsibility, unit condition, occupancy status, and any listed resale terms.
The evidence supports a bounded reading rather than a directional prediction: ZIP asking rents show modest current growth and a historically stable path, while renter-household burden remains substantial and resale pricing has weakened year over year. The available inventory and vacancy measures add useful aggregate context but cannot resolve whether a specific renter or owner would face a favorable transaction. The most decision-relevant unresolved question is whether an individual property’s current rent, utility package, condition, and leasing terms align with the ZIP-wide index and modelled bedroom ladder, while its actual sale evidence aligns with the separate Redfin resale universe.
","findings":[{"body":"The Zillow history indicates positive same-month rent change across the one-, three-, and five-year windows. However, the shorter growth pace trails the five-year rate, so recent movement extends the prior upward path without showing acceleration. Complete history coverage and low observed variability make the current ZORI snapshot more interpretable, but the series remains backward-looking rather than predictive.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but slower than the longer run"},{"body":"Current ZIP ZORI is modestly above the ACS median gross-rent estimate. That proximity is useful as a cross-check, but the measures answer different questions: ZORI reflects current observed asking rents across rental types, while ACS represents occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities. Neither measure substitutes for an individual listing review.","title":"Survey rent and asking-rent index are closely aligned, not interchangeable"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen places current ZIP asking rent below the threshold implied by median household income, yet a majority of ACS renter households are cost burdened. This is not contradictory: household income and rent burdens vary across occupied renter homes. The combined evidence cautions against treating ZIP median income as proof of affordability for the renter population.","title":"Burden data complicate the ZIP-wide income screen"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation shows a lower median sold price from a year earlier, extended marketing time, below-list average sale-to-list results, and limited above-list activity. Meanwhile, asking rents increased modestly. This divergence does not establish causation, but it means rent history and resale conditions should remain separate screens rather than be blended into one property-performance claim.","title":"Resale conditions challenge a simple rent-strength interpretation"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is an asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it may not match a specific unit’s bedroom count, condition, concessions, utility treatment, lease length, or actual executed rent.","ACS burden, income, vacancy, and gross-rent results are ZCTA-level survey estimates for occupied households. They cannot demonstrate affordability, vacancy, utility costs, or tenant demand for any particular available property.","HUD bedroom standards provide the structure used for modelled bedroom estimates, but they are administrative benchmarks rather than observed asking rents, lease comps, or evidence of attainable unit pricing.","Redfin resale metrics measure for-sale transactions and listing conditions within a rolling ZIP observation. They do not provide rental transactions, operating expenses, financing costs, property-level returns, or forecasts."],"qa":[{"a":"They serve different measurement purposes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a matched ZCTA five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Comparing them is a useful cross-check, but neither source replaces the other.","q":"Why does the report show both Zillow rent and ACS gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The estimates describe a structured model and cannot identify the price of a particular unit.","q":"Are the bedroom rents actual observed rents for ZIP 89123?"},{"a":"No. The calculation simply annualizes the ZIP ZORI and divides it by 30% to create a standardized income screen. It is arithmetic, not advice, underwriting, a landlord policy, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual qualification can depend on rent, income documentation, household composition, credit, deposits, and lease terms.","q":"Does the required-income calculation determine whether someone qualifies for a rental?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the direct ZIP median sold price from Redfin. Because it combines an asking-rent index with a resale-price observation, it is only a cross-source screening ratio. It excludes expenses, vacancy, taxes, insurance, financing, maintenance, and property-specific rent, so it is not a cap rate or return measure.","q":"What does the Redfin rent-price screen mean?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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