At $1,598 in June 2026, Zillow's ZIP-level ZORI for 89146—a Zillow ZIP market identifier that matches a Census ZCTA—was below the $1,722 rent figure in Las Vegas city context and the shared $1,748 rent figure in Clark County context and Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV metro context. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a price quote for a particular dwelling. This is the central current contrast: the ZIP index is lower than wider-area context while the latest annual movement is negative, so neither an individual listing nor broader rents should be substituted for the ZIP index.
The index's retreat is recent relative to its full observed path. Direct Zillow ZIP ZORI history retains 100 observations with 100% coverage. On exact same-month comparisons, the one-year annualized change was -0.43%, whereas the three-year rate was +0.41% and the five-year rate +3.01%. Thus the latest direction breaks from—not confirms—the modest three-year rise and stronger five-year rise. Annualized monthly-return variability of 4.69% classifies the series as high variability, which reduces the confidence that should be placed in a single current rent snapshot. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown reached -7.67%, showing a material past peak-to-trough decline within the window. Among history-eligible ZIPs, transparent national discovery ranks were 2,469 for momentum, 2,778 for stability, and 2,810 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks higher; these backward-looking measurements are not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The gap between rent sources is definitional, not a clean measure of appreciation or value. The matched ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent was $1,528; ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes and gross rent includes selected utilities, so it is not a current asking-rent series. HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent standard was $1,735. That administrative standard is bedroom-specific and is not an asking rent. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates—not measured bedroom rents—of $1,228 for a studio, $1,361 for one bedroom, $1,598 for two, $2,222 for three, and $2,546 for four. The two-bedroom model equals the all-type index by construction, leaving no observed bedroom-rent conclusion.
The income and burden measures put the ZORI into a separate household screen. The ZCTA's ACS median household income was $62,899, versus $63,920 required for the arithmetic screen that allocates 30% of income to the current index; the difference is $1,021. This comparison uses a household median, not a renter-specific income or a unit-level test. It is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. ACS estimated 4,725 occupied renter homes, of which 2,640 had gross-rent burdens at or above 30%, a 55.87% share. Those burden estimates describe surveyed renter households, including the survey's gross-rent utility treatment; they neither determine any renter's ability to pay nor establish the burden for a particular available unit.
Supply-side survey context is also mixed. In the matched ZCTA, ACS estimates 8,628 housing units and a 6.53% vacancy rate, while renters occupy 58.59% of occupied homes. The supplied stock counts include 4,024 single-family units and 947 units in large multifamily structures, a composition that prevents an all-type ZORI from being read as a like-for-like price for either form. Vacancy is a count-based area condition rather than proof that a particular listed unit is vacant, rentable, or comparable. Las Vegas city context, Clark County context, and Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV metro context are wider-geography comparisons, not ZIP evidence.
The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation points to a different market universe. Median sold price was $508,885, up 9.44% year over year, with 61 homes sold, a median 57 days on market, and 82 homes of inventory. Its 4.1 months of supply represents the resale market's listed supply relative to its sales pace, not rental vacancy or leasing demand. Average sale-to-list was 97.44%, and 13.57% of sales closed above list. Taken together, the price increase contrasts with the recent ZORI decline, while the marketing time, supply measure, and below-list average do not signal an unqualified resale tightness. Redfin describes for-sale transactions, not rental transactions. Annualizing ZIP ZORI and dividing by median sold price gives a 3.77% cross-source screening ratio only; it does not provide property-level economics, costs, or an outcome measure.
Read together, the evidence is deliberately unresolved rather than mutually confirming. Zillow is a current blended asking-rent index; the ACS rent and burden measures are multi-year survey estimates for occupied renter homes; HUD is an administrative benchmark; and Redfin is a rolling resale observation. The ZIP rent level is lower than the named city, county, and metro context figures, yet the recent rent path is down while the resale price observation rose from its earlier comparison. That tension requires source separation, not a conclusion that either market causes the other. ACS margins of error and the ZORI's high historical variability further limit confidence in a precise point-in-time comparison. None supplies a particular property's condition, exact utility package, actual transaction rent, operating costs, or buyer and seller terms.
Concrete property-level checks should preserve those boundaries: record the dated advertised rent, exact bedroom count, whether the stated price includes the same utilities captured by gross rent, availability, lease terms, and property type before comparing it with ZORI or the modelled ladder. For a sale comparison, confirm the sale date, closing price, marketing history, and whether the sale property matches the address and property type being examined; do not use area vacancy, burden, or the screening ratio as proof about that property. This packet does not establish a future rent, resale outcome, tenant qualification, or transaction price. The unresolved question is: does the specific listing's date, bedroom configuration, utility treatment, and transaction status actually match the metric being applied?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow's June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,598, with a -0.43% exact same-month annualized one-year change. That is a reversal from the +0.41% three-year and +3.01% five-year rates. Because the history is classified high variability and has a 4.69% annualized monthly-return measure, the current index is useful as a current benchmark but not a stable stand-in for every listing.","title":"Recent rent softness breaks the multi-year path"},{"body":"The $63,920 30% required-income screen is $1,021 above the ZCTA's $62,899 median household income. It is a mechanical comparison using the ZIP asking-rent index and is neither tenant advice nor an approval test. ACS reports that 55.87% of renter households are burdened at or above 30%, but the survey cannot identify the burden or affordability of a specific unit or applicant.","title":"Income screen is narrow and burden data are broad"},{"body":"Within Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, the $508,885 median sold price increased 9.44% year over year. However, 57 median days on market, 4.1 months of supply, a 97.44% sale-to-list average, and only 13.57% sold above list indicate that the resale evidence is not interchangeable with rental demand. It contrasts with the recent ZORI decline rather than proving a common market outcome.","title":"Resale price growth does not resolve rental conditions"},{"body":"The displayed studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled monthly ZIP estimates made by scaling the all-type ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, tenant-paid amounts, or lease comparables. HUD Fair Market Rent is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, while ACS gross rent covers occupied renter homes and selected utilities. These source differences explain why similar dollar levels do not create a single rent measure.","title":"Bedroom figures are constructed comparators"}],"risks":["The ZORI index blends rental types, and its high historical variability means a dated advertised rent, bedroom count, utility package, and lease terms may differ materially without contradicting the index.","ACS is a five-year survey with reported margins of error and a gross-rent definition for occupied renter homes; it cannot be treated as current listing inventory or a direct rent quote.","HUD bedroom standards and the resulting modelled estimates are not observed leases. Applying them to a particular unit without confirming bedroom count and actual advertised terms risks a false comparison.","Redfin resale metrics reflect a rolling ZIP sales window. Sold prices, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes do not establish rental transactions, vacancy conditions, or property-level economics."],"qa":[{"a":"The matched label lets the report place the Zillow ZIP-level asking-rent index beside ACS survey measures. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area, while a USPS delivery ZIP is a postal delivery geography. The packet explicitly says they are not identical, so the match permits area-level comparison without converting the Census area into a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"Why does the report distinguish the ZIP label from a USPS ZIP?"},{"a":"Each displayed bedroom figure is calculated by scaling the all-type ZIP ZORI using the relative local HUD bedroom ladder. This produces a modelled monthly ZIP estimate for each size, including the two-bedroom value that equals ZORI by construction. The calculation does not observe bedroom-specific leases, individual listing prices, or the attributes of a particular property.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates created?"},{"a":"No. The screen only converts the ZIP asking-rent index into annual income using the stipulated 30% share. The ACS median is a household-level area statistic, while the burden measure summarizes surveyed renter households. Neither figure is an applicant record, an approval standard, or a determination of the actual rent and selected utilities attached to a specific available unit.","q":"Does the 30% screen qualify a renter?"},{"a":"That figure is obtained by annualizing the ZIP ZORI and dividing it by the Redfin median sold price, which pairs distinct rental and resale evidence universes. It excludes property-specific terms and does not connect an observed sale to an observed rent. It is useful only as a cross-source screening ratio and supplies neither a forecast nor a property-level economic result.","q":"Why not treat the 3.77% figure as a property return?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":990.971382},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1001.680492},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1037.814679},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1034.958235},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1060.726063},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1056.552696},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1060.069371},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1055.04439},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1064.053499},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1056.096952},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1065.887803},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1078.801162},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1079.208191},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1087.566817},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1071.618808},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1085.202138},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1086.150651},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1101.122336},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1126.505514},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1144.063116},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1173.257523},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1190.166004},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1201.944928},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1205.322108},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1152.478761},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1147.816698},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1139.75814},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1142.283415},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1146.415926},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1155.920594},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1159.615193},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1180.390265},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1190.886646},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1204.737011},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1232.907834},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1261.824099},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1290.088535},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1301.459039},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1326.228254},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1378.127007},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1424.884315},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1484.246794},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1509.137975},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1532.315452},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1537.088886},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1539.802417},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1543.649442},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1557.042593},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1588.708888},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1605.878692},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1626.815245},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1590.306187},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1590.491975},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1566.591958},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1588.414339},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1574.558947},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1572.219992},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1558.955862},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1550.05403},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1538.143241},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1529.966168},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1541.441541},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1558.241265},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1578.425788},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1560.23701},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1527.913913},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1502.060926},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1528.370335},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1552.039409},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1573.174145},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1558.674537},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1554.887295},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1562.269138},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1575.077774},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1559.678974},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1572.661598},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1565.067513},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1608.53846},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1614.036586},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1616.498448},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1611.552857},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1618.101958},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1631.716716},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1634.97116},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1623.553893},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1595.020085},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1602.814544},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1604.93982},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1620.727855},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1608.151412},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1614.178092},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1603.598756},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1598.033307},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1587.178879},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1587.04511},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1589.767373},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1596.662309},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1609.875312},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1608.254038},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1598.055556}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":100,"firstPeriod":"2018-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":100,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1604.93982,"endRent":1598.055556,"change":-0.004289421892466949,"cagr":-0.004289421892466949},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1578.425788,"endRent":1598.055556,"change":0.012436294534235115,"cagr":0.00412836466283939},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1378.127007,"endRent":1598.055556,"change":0.15958510926997604,"cagr":0.030055264177788032}},"maxDrawdown":-0.07668622443970263,"annualizedVolatility":0.04689948035114677,"consecutiveReturnCount":99}}