At the June 2026 Zillow reading, ZIP 89408's $1,891 monthly ZORI creates a two-sided affordability signal. Applying a 30% required-income screen to the annualized index produces $75,640, below the matched ACS ZCTA five-year median household income of $89,552; the index equals 25.3% of that income. Yet 42.9% of surveyed renter households reported spending at least that share of income on gross rent. The screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and burden prevalence cannot prove the condition of a particular unit. The five-digit label is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area for tabulation, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is not a signed lease, a utility-inclusive payment, or a price quote for every home. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey instead reports a $1,584 median gross rent for occupied renter homes in the ZCTA; gross rent includes selected utilities. This is a different survey universe from current asking rents, so the gap should not be treated as a unit-level market spread. HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom FMR is $1,870. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Using its local ladder to scale ZIP ZORI yields modelled monthly estimates of $1,303 for a studio, $1,506 for one bedroom, $1,891 for two bedrooms, $2,568 for three bedrooms, and $2,982 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
Through June 1, 2026, the direct Zillow ZIP history supports the accelerating label only as a backward-looking measurement. Exact same-month ZORI changes annualized to 6.7% over one year, 4.6% over three years, and 4.6% over five years. The latest pace therefore confirms rather than breaks from the longer path, while running above it. Coverage was 100% across the supplied history. An annualized monthly-return variability measure of 2.1% indicates relatively limited month-to-month dispersion in this index, raising confidence in the continuity of one current rent snapshot without eliminating its blended-type limitation. Separately, a maximum drawdown of -1.7% marks the largest observed peak-to-trough retreat. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 216 for momentum, 237 for stability, and 27 for the balanced score; lower ranks are higher. These history measures do not forecast rents or supply an investment recommendation.
The relevant price check is not another rent comparison. Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a $419,905 median sold price, up 3.7% year over year, across 120 homes sold. Marketing time was 37 days, inventory was 86 homes, and months of supply were 2.2. Sellers received 99.6% of list price on average, while 34.2% of sales closed above list. These are for-sale market signals and not rental transactions, lease comparables, or property operating results. Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by the median sold price gives a 5.4% cross-source screening ratio only. The positive resale price movement and reported supply conditions point in the same observed direction as the recent rent path, yet that agreement does not resolve surveyed renter burden or turn either series into a forecast.
The matched ACS ZCTA's 9,276 housing units include 7,248 single-family units and 116 large-multifamily units. Its 4.4% vacancy rate and 28.3% renter share describe the area-wide stock and tenure mix rather than a count of suitable rentals. In particular, a vacant-unit aggregate gives no evidence on price, bedroom count, condition, timing, or lease availability at a particular address. Only as wider context, the Fernley city rent context aligns with ZIP ZORI, while the Lyon County rent context is $1,920 and the Fernley, NV metro rent context is $2,004. City, county, and metro figures are contextual scope comparisons, not substitutes for ZIP or ZCTA evidence.
Read together, the data show a level mismatch as well as a risk of overinterpreting direction. The asking index has recently grown faster than its own longer historical rates; the sold-home observation shows a positive price change and reported supply conditions; meanwhile, the survey shows a material burden share despite median-income arithmetic below the screen. Those statements can coexist because they describe different populations, transaction stages, and units. The resale record therefore offers a tension rather than corroboration of rental affordability: it confirms only a similar recent direction in a separate for-sale universe. It does not establish why rents moved, what a landlord receives, or what any household can pay. Keeping that separation is more decision-useful than turning agreement in two series into a single market conclusion.
Several measurement limits narrow how far this packet can travel. ZORI is an index across rental types, not a bedroom-specific repeat census. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter households, subject to sampling uncertainty and utility treatment; it does not say which current listings are available. HUD standards administer bedroom benchmarks and do not appraise apartments or houses. The direct Redfin window rolls together recent ZIP resale activity, so it should not be expanded into rental demand or broader regional resale claims. Likewise, city, county, and metro comparisons remain context even where they resemble the ZIP figure. None of the measures identifies a specific property's costs, physical quality, or lease execution.
At the property level, verify that the address falls within the intended ZIP or ZCTA treatment, then match active rentals by bedroom count, property type, condition, lease term, utility inclusion, fees, furnishing, concessions, and availability date. For a sale comparison, confirm the address, closing date, property type, list price, and whether the transaction resembles the subject property. Check whether vacancy references represent units that are actually rentable under the intended terms rather than an aggregate category. The useful final question is: which evidence universe actually matches the property-level question being asked?
","findings":[{"body":"Through the stated history endpoint, the one-year same-month ZORI gain of 6.7% exceeded both the three-year and five-year annualized changes of 4.6%. Full series coverage and modest variability make the acceleration observable in the index, but the record is historical. It does not predict the next rent movement, lease result, or investment outcome.","title":"Observed acceleration, not a forecast"},{"body":"Median-income arithmetic looks less pressured than reported renter burden. The required income from current ZORI at the 30% screen is below ZCTA median household income, while 42.9% of surveyed renters are burdened at that threshold. Different household circumstances, gross-rent utility inclusion, and survey-versus-asking-rent definitions mean the gap cannot diagnose an individual lease.","title":"Income arithmetic and renter burden diverge"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled by scaling the ZIP asking-rent index with the local HUD ladder. They preserve the ladder's relative bedroom steps, rather than observing rents for separate bedroom pools. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard; it is neither a current asking-rent survey nor a substitute for unit-level comparables.","title":"Bedroom figures are constructed estimates"},{"body":"The Redfin rolling-three-month ZIP resale block records for-sale closings and market tempo, not rental transactions. Its positive price change, reported supply, and near-list sale pattern are consistent with a firm resale observation, but cannot establish rent collection, operating costs, or investment performance. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure remains a cross-source screening ratio rather than a property-level result.","title":"Resale liquidity is a separate observation"}],"risks":["Because Zillow ZORI is blended across rental types, its ZIP-level movement may not match a particular building, bedroom count, lease duration, utility package, furnishing status, or concession structure.","The ACS ZCTA survey covers occupied renter homes over five years and reports sampling uncertainty; it should not be read as a real-time inventory count or a measurement of a vacancy's rent.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, and using its relative bedroom ladder produces modelled estimates. The result may be unsuitable for an individual unit whose features or charges differ.","Redfin's rolling resale window reports sales-side conditions only. Its median price and liquidity signals cannot supply rental comparables, operating costs, tenant payments, property economics, or a conclusion about future performance."],"qa":[{"a":"No. The $1,891 two-bedroom figure is constructed by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. It is labelled modelled because the packet supplies no direct two-bedroom asking-rent sample. A specific home can differ by condition, utilities, fees, furnishing, lease term, availability date, and concessions.","q":"Is the two-bedroom modelled estimate a measured asking rent?"},{"a":"The screen annualizes the ZORI value and divides it by 30%; it compares that arithmetic result with area median household income. ACS burden is a survey measure among occupied renter households using gross rent, which includes selected utilities. Neither statistic evaluates an applicant or verifies that any unit is affordable to a particular household.","q":"Why can the income screen look less pressured than the reported renter-burden share?"},{"a":"Full coverage, low stated variability, and a limited historical drawdown make the recorded ZORI path internally more consistent than a series with gaps or large swings. Still, history is backward-looking and ZORI blends rental types. It should increase confidence in the index observation's continuity, not in a forecast, a specific listing price, or future tenant behavior.","q":"How much confidence should be placed in the current ZORI snapshot?"},{"a":"The direct rolling-three-month Redfin block is useful for observing ZIP resale price, sales count, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior in the for-sale universe. It does not record rental transactions. The ZORI-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screen and does not reveal operating expenses, financing, taxes, rent collection, or individual-property outcomes.","q":"What does the Redfin block add to this rental report?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1446.122744},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1444.705257},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1456.32785},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1484.433912},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1510.07234},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1530.156035},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1530.362522},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1525.636584},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1537.020558},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1540.665495},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1545.023786},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1559.97451},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1577.941555},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1599.654548},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1606.978521},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1615.032945},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1605.311009},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1592.029114},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1587.416967},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1591.997775},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1590.409689},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1589.87286},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1601.907105},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1603.862177},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1621.57833},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1629.209132},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1643.74976},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1642.748063},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1650.287354},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1663.498925},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1658.678737},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1653.936976},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1652.517687},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1680.180971},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1699.844954},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1704.018675},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1687.644076},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1679.496774},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1691.827207},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1707.870972},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1717.927705},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1718.341387},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1719.54422},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1722.073128},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1723.7222},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1729.272725},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1728.459482},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1746.252382},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1758.90659},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1763.15823},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1770.768603},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1758.192266},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1771.338558},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1782.792722},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1801.428441},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1817.307479},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1833.294206},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1831.433289},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1836.290122},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1836.307196},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1847.672738},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1864.27768},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1867.369916},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1888.310636},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1890.777778}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":65,"firstPeriod":"2021-02-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":65,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1771.338558,"endRent":1890.777778,"change":0.06742879245786737,"cagr":0.06742879245786737},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1650.287354,"endRent":1890.777778,"change":0.145726393295746,"cagr":0.04639014132583896},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1510.07234,"endRent":1890.777778,"change":0.25211072868204454,"cagr":0.04599244414019865}},"maxDrawdown":-0.01709932796448299,"annualizedVolatility":0.02141814754752167,"consecutiveReturnCount":64}}