The central signal in 89431 is a recent acceleration in the asking-rent record. At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow ZORI is $1,676 per month. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a quote for one vacant home. The index increased 10.86% on an exact same-month basis over one year, while the exact same-month annualized changes were 5.56% over three years and 4.17% over five years. The recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path but is materially faster than that path. These are retrospective ZIP-market measurements, not a forecast, a valuation, or an investment recommendation.
Record quality gives context for how much weight to place on that current snapshot. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.56%, maximum drawdown was a 2.67% decline, and coverage was 99.28% through the stated endpoint. The high coverage indicates few missing monthly points in the observed history. The relatively contained historical variability and shallow recorded drawdown make the series more informative than an isolated observation, while the latest one-year acceleration means the current snapshot should not be treated as a fixed future level. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 70 for momentum, 808 for stability, and 61 for balanced history; lower rank is higher. Those ranks organize past patterns only.
Relative to wider asking-rent contexts, the ZIP record sits lower: the City of Sparks context rent is $2,071.87, the Washoe County context rent is $2,004, and the Reno, NV metro context rent is $2,004. Each is a wider geographic context rather than a substitute measurement for the ZIP. The comparison identifies a gap between the ZIP-level index and these city, county, and metro context series, but it does not establish why that gap exists or whether any specific property will price at either value. None of the three context values replaces the ZIP index in a property comparison. Geography and source scope must remain attached to every comparison.
The five-digit label is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the match for the Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, the matched ZCTA's median gross rent was $1,348; this estimate carries survey uncertainty and describes occupied renter homes while including selected utilities. It is a different time frame and universe from ZORI, which is asking rent. The current ZIP asking index is 24.33% above that ACS median. HUD FY2026 local FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and it provides the formal ladder used for the bedroom modelling.
To produce a bedroom view without confusing standards with market quotes, the ZIP ZORI is scaled by the local HUD ladder. The resulting modelled monthly estimates are $1,155 for a studio, $1,335 for one bedroom, $1,676 for two bedrooms, $2,276 for three bedrooms, and $2,643 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents; they preserve the local HUD bedroom relationship while anchoring the two-bedroom point to the ZIP index. They should not be read as advertised rents, lease offers, or proof that a particular unit's bedroom count, utilities, condition, or concessions match the model.
Income and burden evidence sharpen the tension around the current index, but neither is an applicant test. Applying a 30% rent-to-income screen to the monthly ZIP index yields required annual income of $67,040, compared with matched-ZCTA median household income of $66,592; equivalently, the asking index is 30.20% of that median income. This 30% screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS renter survey, 3,836 of 8,433 renter households, or 45.49%, reported spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. That burden statistic describes surveyed households, includes its survey limitations, and cannot prove affordability or burden for a particular available unit.
Housing stock evidence points to a renter-majority occupied base alongside vacancies that need careful interpretation. The matched ZCTA had 17,202 housing units, a 54.50% renter share among occupied homes, and a 10.06% total vacancy rate. Total vacancy is not apartment vacancy, and a vacant-for-rent classification is not proof of a currently available, comparable, or affordable unit. Before using this ZIP evidence for a property decision, check the live asking price, bedroom count, lease term, utilities, concessions, fees, availability date, and unit condition. Which of those property-level facts would most change the comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index, not a single listing. Its one-year exact same-month increase exceeds its three- and five-year annualized changes, so the most recent period accelerates rather than reverses the historical upward trend. The strong momentum discovery rank is backward-looking; it does not imply future appreciation, future rent growth, or a recommended action.","title":"Recent growth outpaces the longer record"},{"body":"HUD's local FMR/SAFMR ladder establishes a bedroom relationship used to scale the ZIP index into studio-through-four-bedroom modelled estimates. HUD is an administrative standard and the outputs are not observed asking rents. The model is most useful as a consistent comparison frame; a live listing can differ because the source does not establish its utilities, fees, lease structure, concessions, condition, or availability.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled, not observed"},{"body":"The matched ZCTA ACS measure reports occupied renter households over five years and includes selected utilities, unlike Zillow's current asking-rent index. Its median gross rent and burden results consequently cannot be substituted for a current advertised rent or an individual household outcome. The ZCTA label is statistical rather than postal, so even the geographic match requires caution when a delivery ZIP is used to search for a specific property.","title":"ACS and Zillow answer different rent questions"},{"body":"Renter-majority occupancy, total vacancy, and vacant-for-rent counts characterize the matched ZCTA housing inventory at survey scope. They do not identify unit condition, asking price, unit type, or whether a vacant unit is marketed at the time of review. Wider City of Sparks, Washoe County, and Reno metro figures offer context, but their different geography prevents them from serving as a replacement for the ZIP-level measure.","title":"Vacancy and context figures require property confirmation"}],"risks":["The index is a blended ZIP-level asking-rent measure, so it may not represent the bedroom mix, utility treatment, lease duration, fees, concessions, condition, or availability of the property under review.","ACS estimates describe a matched ZCTA over a five-year survey period and include margins of error; they are not contemporaneous tenant records and cannot determine an individual renter's burden.","HUD FMR/SAFMR and the derived bedroom ladder are administrative and modelled reference tools. A divergence between them and a listing is not evidence that either value is wrong.","Historical ranks, growth rates, variability, and drawdown summarize observed past ZORI data. The strong recent increase could change, so no future rent level, investment result, or pricing outcome is established."],"qa":[{"a":"They cover different dates, geographies, and rental universes. ZIP ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS is a five-year matched-ZCTA survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The ZCTA is statistical rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. The values are therefore contextually comparable but are not competing quotes for the same home.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent index above the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. Dividing the annualized ZIP asking index by the stated threshold produces an arithmetic screen. It is not lending, leasing, legal, or applicant-qualification guidance. The burden share is a separate ACS household-level survey statistic; it does not show whether a particular applicant can afford, qualify for, or is being charged a particular unit's rent.","q":"Does the 30% required-income screen determine whether someone qualifies for a rental?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the Zillow ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom-specific standards, not asking-rent observations. Therefore, the figures can organize comparisons across bedroom counts but cannot verify an advertisement, a signed lease, or the price of an individual available unit.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured rents for available units?"},{"a":"The total vacancy rate and vacant-for-rent count describe the matched ZCTA's survey-era housing inventory, not a live apartment availability feed. They cannot establish whether a particular vacant unit is rentable, comparable, correctly priced, in acceptable condition, or offered under the terms a renter would receive. Property-level confirmation remains necessary.","q":"What can the vacancy evidence establish about a specific property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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