The visible tension in this ZIP is between a firm current rental index and a softer resale price reading. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI was $1,961 per month, 4.9% above its prior-year level. The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation ending that month instead recorded a $1,424,678 median sold price, 3.4% below a year earlier. These series cannot be treated as one market: ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while Redfin is reporting for-sale outcomes rather than rental transactions. The five-digit 89511 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The split is a measurement tension, not evidence that either series will cause or predict the other.
At the broader-comparison level, this ZIP index was 1.5% above the Reno city context rent of $1,932.16 and 2.1% below the Washoe County context rent and Reno, NV metro context rent, both $2,004; city, county, and metro values are wider-area context, not ZIP observations. A different rent universe supplies a near but distinct benchmark: the ACS 2024 five-year survey for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA reports median gross rent of $1,925, with a $78 margin of error, and that measure includes selected utilities. It is therefore not an asking-rent comp to ZORI, even though the levels are close. The comparison identifies a small cross-source gap, not a rent concession, lease rate, or utility treatment for any particular home.
Bedroom figures should be read as a model, not as a survey of listings. HUD’s FY2026 FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its two-bedroom standard is $1,870. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,352 for a studio, $1,561 for one bedroom, $1,961 for two, $2,663 for three, and $3,093 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The two-bedroom estimate matches the all-type index by construction, while the other figures express the HUD bedroom spacing. That mechanism is useful for consistent screening but cannot identify the actual mix, condition, utilities, or lease terms behind a given advertised unit.
The income and burden readings produce a second tension. The matched ZCTA’s ACS five-year median household income is $124,130, with a $10,401 margin of error. At a 30% income share, arithmetic applied to the current ZORI gives a required annual income of $78,440; the index equals 19.0% of the reported median household income. That is a screen, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Yet the same ACS survey estimates that 1,949 of 4,005 renter households paid at least that threshold share toward rent, or 48.7%. This distributional burden statistic does not establish a particular household’s payment or a specific unit’s affordability; it shows that a median-income comparison and renters’ reported burden can point in different directions.
Housing composition tempers how broadly an all-type rent index can be applied. The ACS ZCTA inventory contains 13,909 housing units, with a 6.1% vacancy rate and a renter share of 30.7% among occupied homes. Its stock includes 9,878 single-family units and 1,193 large multifamily units. These are survey-area stock and vacancy measurements, not a count of live listings or proof that any named dwelling is vacant or rentable. A renter share lower than the city and county contextual shares means the ZIP’s occupied base is less renter-weighted than those wider areas; it does not show which building types contribute to ZORI. Likewise, aggregated vacancy cannot be converted into a conclusion about a unit’s availability, pricing leverage, or leasing outcome.
The history supports recent rent momentum but makes a single current reading less definitive. The direct Zillow ZIP record has 69 monthly observations with 100% coverage. Exact same-month annualized changes were 4.9% over one year, 3.6% over three years, and 3.9% over five years. Thus the latest direction confirms the longer positive path and is running faster than both longer annualized comparisons, without providing a forecast. Monthly rent changes have shown 3.8% annualized variability, placing this ZIP in the supplied high-variability category; that reduces confidence that one month is fully representative despite complete coverage. Separately, its historical maximum decline from a prior peak was 4.6%, demonstrating a realized pullback. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 543 for momentum, 2,473 for stability, and 1,325 balanced, where lower ranks are higher. They are backward-looking measurements, not investment recommendations.
Resale liquidity needs its own interpretation. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation recorded 167 homes sold, a median 53 days on market, and 149 homes of inventory, alongside 2.7 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.0%, and 21.0% of sales closed above list. Those are for-sale-market signals, not rental transactions, rent comparables, or property economics. Taken with the earlier decline in ZIP median sold price, the sales data show that observed transaction pace and constrained months of supply can coexist with a lower year-over-year price statistic. That challenges any reading of the rising ZORI or the median-income screen as a universal indicator of resale pricing strength; it does not resolve the price path for an individual property.
One cross-source calculation gives scale but not an economic return: annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the ZIP median sold price is 1.65%. This is a screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The supplied sources do not identify a subject property’s bedroom count, interior condition, actual achieved rent, concessions, lease duration, utilities, listing status, financing, expenses, or closing-price particulars. A property-level review would need to verify those facts against the specific listing or lease and separate them from ZORI, ACS, HUD, and Redfin’s distinct universes. It should also test whether the stated bedroom configuration matches the modelled ladder rather than treating the ZIP average as a measured comp. The key unresolved question is whether a specific property’s verified rent terms and sale evidence actually fit these area-level screens?
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 Zillow ZORI is $1,961, while ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,925 for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA. The small numerical difference is not a direct comparison of like-for-like rents: ZORI is a typical asking-rent index across rental types, whereas ACS includes selected utilities and records occupied renter homes. The ZCTA also remains a statistical match, not a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Rent reading sits near survey gross rent"},{"body":"The 69-month direct Zillow history has full coverage and shows 4.9% exact same-month annualized growth over one year, compared with 3.6% over three years and 3.9% over five years. That recent gain confirms, rather than breaks from, the longer positive path. However, high variability and a 4.6% prior maximum drawdown make the current index a less settled standalone snapshot than its coverage alone implies.","title":"Recent history is positive but uneven"},{"body":"The current ZORI-based arithmetic screen requires $78,440 in annual income at a 30% share, versus a $124,130 ZCTA median household income. At the same time, 48.7% of estimated renter households were burdened at or above that share. The contrast is descriptive, not a qualification rule: medians do not reveal household distribution, and the burden estimate cannot establish a specific tenant’s payment capacity.","title":"Income screen and burden measure diverge"},{"body":"Redfin’s ZIP-level rolling-three-month for-sale observation combines 167 closed sales, 53 median days on market, 149 homes of inventory, and 2.7 months of supply. The median sold price was lower year over year even as ZORI rose. Annualized ZORI divided by median price equals 1.65%, but this cross-source screen is not a cap rate, yield, expected return, or measure of a property’s net economics.","title":"Resale evidence challenges a simple rent-strength reading"}],"risks":["The current ZORI is an all-rental-type asking index, so applying it to a specific bedroom count, utility package, condition level, or lease term can misstate the relevant asking comparison.","ACS estimates have a five-year survey design and margins of error; median income and rent-burden figures describe the matched ZCTA population, not current applicants, units, or leases.","The bedroom figures are modelled from a HUD administrative ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents and cannot demonstrate availability, concessions, tenant demand, or achieved rent at a particular address.","Redfin’s ZIP resale figures are rolling three-month for-sale observations. The 1.65% rent-price screen excludes operating costs, taxes, financing, vacancy at a property, and all property-specific cash flows."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI at $1,961 is a ZIP-level index of typical observed asking rents blended across rental types. ACS reports $1,925 median gross rent from its 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA, including selected utilities. They are close numerically but cover different populations, timing, and rent definitions, so neither replaces the other.","q":"Why are Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent different measures?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP-level ZORI with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than a survey of advertised rents. The estimates provide consistent relative sizing but do not measure listings, leases, concessions, utilities, or achieved rents by bedroom count.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed asking rents?"},{"a":"It does not change the observed current index, but it lowers the confidence a reader should place in one snapshot as fully representative of the longer path. The record has complete coverage and recent gains exceed the three- and five-year annualized changes, yet its 3.8% variability and prior drawdown document meaningful historical movement rather than a smooth series.","q":"What does the historical high-variability designation change?"},{"a":"No. The 1.65% figure only divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the ZIP median sold price across two separate source universes. It omits actual rent collected, expenses, taxes, insurance, financing, maintenance, vacancy for the subject property, and closing-price specifics. It is therefore a cross-source screen, not a cap rate, yield, net return, or expected return.","q":"Can the rent-price screening ratio be treated as a property return?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1496.370511},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1493.011859},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1513.814799},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1528.804954},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1550.728265},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1549.699051},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1548.101247},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1578.622542},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1621.518142},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1668.778646},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1673.421564},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1709.610373},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1714.152088},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1756.806002},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1726.118891},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1728.91077},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1686.628796},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1699.635284},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1725.3168},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1750.877322},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1744.277256},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1735.28338},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1716.375996},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1690.820768},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1693.744015},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1703.095881},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1773.139252},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1776.971052},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1804.062177},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1787.949486},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1786.180742},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1771.259932},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1766.192211},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1749.395231},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1763.151847},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1759.31378},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1763.897983},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1738.60382},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1729.911431},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1721.429128},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1732.204928},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1744.626424},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1756.246857},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1767.714811},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1789.601024},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1797.525856},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1800.630157},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1819.990894},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1838.586737},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1844.490479},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1834.639507},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1837.099075},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1851.017793},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1846.84161},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1849.833594},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1861.708894},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1869.509173},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1886.539684},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1895.70745},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1901.117101},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1898.027443},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1917.263602},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1929.99438},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1946.192918},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1939.877181},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1954.247604},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1960.379229},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1962.529461},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1961.4155}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":69,"firstPeriod":"2020-10-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":69,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1869.509173,"endRent":1961.4155,"change":0.04916067186368389,"cagr":0.04916067186368389},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1766.192211,"endRent":1961.4155,"change":0.11053343332856547,"cagr":0.03556463961632095},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1621.518142,"endRent":1961.4155,"change":0.20961674692135523,"cagr":0.038794300602608134}},"maxDrawdown":-0.045803880849279666,"annualizedVolatility":0.03774019249118861,"consecutiveReturnCount":68}}