For 92154, Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $2,999 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a lease-specific quote. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Same-month asking rent was down 0.5% over one year, while the annualized change was 0.4% over three years and 5.4% over five years. That recent decline breaks from the longer upward path. History coverage is 100% across 102 observations, which supports the continuity of the measurement series, but not certainty about any one available unit. Monthly changes translate to 2.9% annualized variability, so a current index reading deserves moderate rather than absolute precision. The 2.5% maximum drawdown shows that the observed index did experience a measurable peak-to-trough retreat before the current endpoint.
The resale evidence presents a different tension. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a $703,341 median sold price, down 2.3% year over year, alongside 107 homes sold and a 27-day median marketing time. Active listings numbered 223, up 17.4%, while reported inventory was 94 homes and months of supply stood at 2.7. Yet the sale-to-list average was 100.7%, 55.8% of sales closed above list, and 33.2% went off market within two weeks. These are for-sale market signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. The ZIP’s 5.1% annualized-ZORI-to-median-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio created by dividing annualized asking rent by median sold price; it is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. Resale liquidity signals remain comparatively firm even as both current asking-rent direction and the median sale-price change are negative, challenging a simple cooling interpretation.
Bedroom figures require another source boundary. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,287 for a studio, $2,460 for one bedroom, $2,999 for two bedrooms, $3,995 for three bedrooms, and $4,839 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and they inherit the limitations of the ZIP-wide asking-rent index. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,950, placing the modelled two-bedroom estimate 1.7% higher. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent measure; it is useful for the ladder’s relative scaling but does not establish a lease price for a particular property.
The income screen is more strained than the headline asking-rent level alone suggests. Applying a 30% rent-to-income calculation to the current monthly index produces required annual household income of $119,960, above the ACS median household income of $94,901; the resulting arithmetic screen is 37.9%. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the matched ACS five-year ZCTA survey, median gross rent was $2,195, and that measure covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike Zillow’s asking-rent index. The current asking index is 36.6% above that survey median. ACS also estimates that 5,353 renter households, or 59.7%, had gross-rent burdens at or above the stated threshold. That burden statistic describes a survey population and cannot prove affordability, utility treatment, or payment burden for a particular vacant unit.
ACS housing-stock data show 24,304 housing units, of which 23,019 were occupied and 1,285 vacant, for a 5.3% vacancy rate. Renters occupied 38.9% of occupied homes, leaving the ZIP’s tenure mix less renter-weighted than a market composed primarily of renter households. The vacant stock is separately classified among units for rent, for sale, and seasonal use, so the overall vacancy measure is not synonymous with rental availability. Nor does it identify the condition, price, lease terms, or immediate availability of any specific home. Read with the burden figures, the stock data support a distinction between broad housing availability and the narrower question of whether a current advertised rental matches a household’s budget and requirements.
Wider-area context places the ZIP near the regional asking-rent level but does not replace ZIP evidence: San Diego city context rent is $3,038, while San Diego County context rent and San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad metro context rent are each $2,991. The ZIP’s $2,999 ZORI is therefore slightly below the city context and broadly aligned with the county and metro contexts. City and county ACS gross-rent measures are higher than the ZIP’s matched-ZCTA survey median, while both wider geographies also have larger renter shares and higher vacancy rates than the ZIP. Those comparisons are useful scale markers only: city, county, and metro figures each cover broader populations and housing inventories than the direct ZIP market identifier.
The history discovery measures reinforce the split between cooling momentum and comparatively steadier series behavior. Among national history-eligible ZIPs, the momentum discovery rank is 2484, the stability rank is 1472, and the balanced rank is 2430; lower ranks place higher in each transparent discovery ordering. These ranks are descriptive filters, not ratings of housing quality or investment merit. The weaker momentum placement is consistent with the latest same-month rent decline, whereas the stronger stability placement fits the relatively contained month-to-month movement and drawdown. Because those measurements are backward-looking, they neither forecast future rents nor establish a likely return. Their practical value is to temper confidence in reading the latest ZIP index as a permanent change rather than a current observation within an evolving series.
The evidence supports disciplined limits more than a single market verdict. Zillow’s ZIP index, ACS ZCTA survey, HUD administrative standard, and Redfin resale observation answer different questions and should not be substituted for one another. A property-level review would need to verify current availability, exact bedroom count, advertised rent, included and excluded utilities, lease length, concessions, move-in costs, condition, and whether the address corresponds to the relevant ZIP and ZCTA geography. It should also distinguish a listing price from a completed resale transaction and confirm whether a marketed home remains active. Broad vacancy and rent-burden figures cannot demonstrate outcomes for a particular unit, while the resale screening ratio cannot reveal operating expenses, financing, taxes, or transaction-specific economics.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI is $2,999 in June 2026 and declined 0.5% over the latest same-month year. That contrasts with positive annualized changes over the three-year and five-year windows. Complete history coverage supports the series continuity, but monthly variability and the recorded drawdown mean the latest value should be treated as a current index observation rather than a settled long-term direction.","title":"Cooling rent direction interrupts the longer history"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a lower median sold price year over year, but sale-to-list performance, above-list closings, and short marketing times still indicate active for-sale trading. This creates a meaningful tension with declining current asking-rent momentum. The resale figures describe completed home sales and listing-market conditions, not rents, landlord revenue, or rental property economics.","title":"Resale activity remains firmer than rent momentum"},{"body":"Studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index. They are not measured rents for available units, and they do not account for unit condition, utilities, lease terms, concessions, or property type. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, so its relationship to the modelled ladder should not be read as a direct asking-rent comparison.","title":"The bedroom ladder is modelled, not observed"},{"body":"The arithmetic income needed for the current ZORI at the stated rent-to-income threshold exceeds the ACS median household income for the matched ZCTA. ACS gross rent is materially lower than Zillow’s asking-rent index, but the measures cover different universes: occupied renter homes with selected utilities versus a blended asking-rent index. Reported rent burden is population-level evidence, not a finding about any individual household.","title":"The affordability screen exceeds local median household income"}],"risks":["A ZIP-wide asking-rent index blends rental types and does not reveal the condition, concessions, utility obligations, lease term, or actual availability of any specific apartment, house, or bedroom configuration.","ACS ZCTA estimates are five-year survey measures with a statistical geography that differs from a USPS delivery ZIP, so survey medians and burden shares cannot be treated as current listing-level evidence.","Modelled bedroom estimates use HUD relative standards to scale a ZIP index. They are useful for a consistent ladder, but they are not observed bedroom rents or transaction records.","The resale screening ratio combines annualized asking rent with median sold price from separate sources. It omits property expenses and transaction details and must not be interpreted as a return measure."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The measures have different timing, populations, and construction, so their gap is informative but not a direct contradiction.","q":"Why does the current asking-rent index differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured rents from listings, leases, or completed rental transactions, and they cannot describe a particular property’s features, availability, included utilities, or concessions.","q":"Are the studio through four-bedroom figures actual rents?"},{"a":"It does not directly measure the rental market. Redfin’s supplied block is a rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation covering sold prices, listings, inventory, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list signals. It can provide for-sale context alongside rent data, but it is not rental comparable evidence.","q":"What does the Redfin information say about the rental market?"},{"a":"The required-income figure is a mathematical conversion of the current monthly asking-rent index using the stated rent-to-income threshold. It is not lending guidance, legal advice, or an applicant qualification rule. ACS burden data summarize surveyed renter households and cannot establish whether a particular household can afford a specific available unit.","q":"How should the rent burden and required-income figures be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1891.613414},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1918.660759},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1938.693163},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1938.302471},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1941.51957},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1940.756836},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1968.854127},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1978.892724},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1985.572536},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1991.525982},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":2003.250633},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":2022.746284},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":2003.941388},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":2015.98877},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":2014.489986},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":2032.413757},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":2034.336754},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":2043.647269},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":2036.030435},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":2051.410719},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":2063.596262},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":2073.731702},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":2078.942848},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":2084.551225},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":2116.57291},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":2112.474807},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":2129.532439},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":2105.396187},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":2099.137178},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":2103.882416},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":2116.516082},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":2138.533772},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":2161.336772},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":2208.117253},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":2237.512197},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":2223.943394},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2208.643624},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2184.385586},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2212.135793},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2229.793886},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2272.030107},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2300.488553},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2338.816006},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2381.000862},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2392.655794},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2415.108562},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2449.935658},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2522.686288},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2559.735933},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2606.665907},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2623.724845},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2668.9314},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2672.769063},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2711.595006},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2739.88949},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2796.744609},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2807.959449},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2808.192424},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2782.239617},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2811.184354},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2824.954406},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2853.440666},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2881.344395},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2904.53259},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2958.227923},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2963.892512},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2982.68049},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2935.76019},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2971.583457},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2984.280848},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2999.43668},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2958.978685},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2944.275871},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2956.261659},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2945.948091},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2956.222341},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2936.41307},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2933.5173},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2936.29184},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2933.691792},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2934.282475},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2923.890803},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2980.808083},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2997.622772},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":3024.792388},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":3009.725773},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":3020.851766},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":3014.781512},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":3013.006664},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":3014.459182},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":3011.301739},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":3036.04805},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":3028.44545},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":3041.131652},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":3003.641944},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":3009.738666},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2999.030435},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":3003.095707},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2998.513884},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2996.266055},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2999.216741},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2998.84276}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":102,"firstPeriod":"2018-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":102,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":3014.459182,"endRent":2998.84276,"change":-0.0051805053766357245,"cagr":-0.0051805053766357245},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2963.892512,"endRent":2998.84276,"change":0.01179200927783186,"cagr":0.003915320021472768},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2300.488553,"endRent":2998.84276,"change":0.3035677817606597,"cagr":0.054451778432162756}},"maxDrawdown":-0.025186688388434297,"annualizedVolatility":0.029195525847990685,"consecutiveReturnCount":101}}