Resale evidence supplies the sharpest counterweight to the rent reading in this ZIP. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, the median sold price was $1,112,249, down 6.85% from a year earlier. The resale series recorded 74 homes sold, a median 47 days on market, reported inventory of 109 homes, and 4.4 months of supply. Sellers averaged 97.07% of list price, while 11.12% of sales closed above list. These are for-sale market signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price equals 3.54%, but that is only a cross-source screening ratio rather than a property-level economic measure. The price decline challenges any simple interpretation that a positive rent history and one current asking-rent reading move in lockstep with resale conditions.
The latest Zillow ZIP ZORI is $3,283 per month. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is not a lease-specific quote or a direct count of apartments with a given bedroom count. The City of Irvine context rent is $3,390, the Orange County context rent is $3,186, and the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA metro context rent is $2,927. Those city, county, and metro figures are wider-scope context rather than substitutes for the ZIP-level Zillow index. The ZIP reading therefore sits below the city context while remaining above the county and metro contexts, a comparison that describes relative rent levels without establishing why they differ.
The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the matched Census ZCTA, ACS median gross rent was $2,872; this is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Zillow’s asking-rent index is 14.31% above that ACS figure, but the difference should not be treated as a like-for-like change because the sources cover different rental universes. The local HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard was $3,070, placing ZIP ZORI 6.94% higher. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent observation.
Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,546 for a studio, $2,713 for a one-bedroom, $3,283 for a two-bedroom, $4,318 for a three-bedroom, and $4,997 for a four-bedroom. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. Their purpose is to express the local HUD ladder relative to the ZIP-wide Zillow index; they do not identify available units, lease concessions, unit condition, or the bedroom mix embedded in Zillow’s blended index. The matching two-bedroom model result reflects the scaling method, not independent confirmation of measured two-bedroom asking rents.
The income and burden screens create a second tension. At a 30% rent-to-income arithmetic threshold, a $3,283 monthly ZORI implies required annual income of $131,320, compared with matched-ZCTA median household income of $106,226. Annualized asking rent is therefore 37.09% of that median income. This required-income calculation is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS reports that 54.69% of renter households were rent burdened at 30% or more of income, while renters represented 73.89% of occupied homes. Burden is a household survey outcome, not evidence that a particular renter, listing, or future lease will face the same payment pressure.
The ACS housing-stock profile is heavily renter-oriented but should not be converted into a claim about current unit availability. The ZCTA had 16,208 housing units, including 1,752 vacant units, for a 10.81% vacancy rate; 965 vacant units were classified as for rent. Large multifamily structures accounted for 8,327 units, compared with 4,902 single-family units. These counts provide context for the type and tenure composition surrounding the ZIP rent index. They cannot show whether a specific vacant unit is actively marketed, habitable, competitively priced, or offered on terms comparable with Zillow’s observed asking-rent universe.
The rent history is classified as high variability and is backward-looking rather than a forecast or investment recommendation. Exact same-month Zillow ZORI change was 2.06% over one year, 2.51% over three years, and 5.90% over five years. The latest positive year confirms the longer upward direction, but it breaks from the faster pace represented by the five-year result. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.64%, which reduces the confidence that should be placed in any single current rent snapshot. Separately, the largest historical decline from a prior peak was 7.22%, showing that the series has experienced meaningful reversals. Coverage was 100%; transparent national discovery ranks were 1,380 for momentum, 2,361 for stability, and 2,056 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are higher.
The usable conclusion is not a unified market verdict because the evidence does not share one universe. ZIP asking rent has remained above the matched ACS gross-rent measure and points to an income screen above the local median household income, while the direct resale series shows a lower median sold price and less-than-list-price average closings. Property-level interpretation would require confirmation of the unit’s bedroom count, advertised rent, lease term, utility responsibility, concessions, availability date, and whether the listing belongs to the relevant rental type. For a resale comparison, the property type, sale date, condition, list-price history, and closing record would also need verification. Do those property-specific facts align with the broad ZIP indicators, or do they place the unit outside the sources’ measured universes?
","findings":[{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation shows a year-over-year decline in median sold price, while Zillow’s backward-looking rent history remains positive over its measured horizons. That tension matters because sale transactions and asking-rent observations are separate markets. The annualized rent-to-price figure is useful only as a cross-source screen and does not describe property-level operating economics.","title":"Resale and rent signals point in different directions"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI represents typical observed asking rents blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent summarizes occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard. Comparisons among them can frame differences in level, but cannot establish a direct rent change, lease rate, or value for a specific unit.","title":"The rent figures are not interchangeable"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen based on ZIP ZORI exceeds the matched-ZCTA median household income, and more than half of renter households reported a rent burden of at least 30% in ACS. These measures describe aggregate conditions across surveyed households. They do not determine whether an individual applicant can qualify or whether a particular lease has the same rent-to-income relationship.","title":"Income and burden measures show broad pressure, not unit outcomes"},{"body":"The positive short-period ZORI change follows positive longer same-month changes, but the long-period pace is stronger than the latest one. High variability classification and the historical peak-to-trough decline indicate that the series has not moved smoothly. Full coverage strengthens measurement continuity, while the stability discovery rank remains weaker than the momentum rank.","title":"History supports caution around a single current reading"}],"risks":["Zillow’s blended asking-rent index may not match the bedroom count, unit type, condition, utility treatment, lease duration, or concession structure of a specific advertised rental home.","The matched Census ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than an exact USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS survey estimates describe occupied renter households over a multi-year collection period.","Redfin’s rolling resale observation is limited to recorded for-sale activity and cannot establish rental demand, achieved lease rents, landlord expenses, or outcomes for any individual property.","Vacancy counts and rent-burden shares are aggregate measures. They do not prove that a particular unit is available, appropriately priced, habitable, affordable to a given household, or likely to transact."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures have different universes. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A gap therefore describes source and population differences as well as rent-level differences.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI higher than ACS median gross rent here?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow index with the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, listing counts, executed leases, or evidence that units at those amounts are presently available.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for available apartments?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the direct ZIP median sold price. This permits a narrow comparison between two separate source series, but it does not incorporate expenses, financing, taxes, property condition, vacancy experience, lease terms, or transaction-specific characteristics. It should remain a cross-source screen only.","q":"What does the rent-to-sale-price screening ratio show?"},{"a":"A property-specific review would need the actual advertised or contracted rent, bedroom count, unit type, utility obligations, concession terms, lease duration, availability date, and condition. For a sale comparison, it would also need the property type, sale date, list history, closing record, and condition at transaction.","q":"What facts would be needed to assess a particular rental or sale property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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