The 93036 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s current ZIP ZORI is $2,956, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a lease transaction series or a measure of every available unit. For wider context only, the City of Oxnard rent context is $2,882, while Ventura County context and the Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA metro context each show $2,957. The ZIP’s index therefore sits essentially at the county and metro context level, while exceeding the city context; those comparisons do not make the wider geographies rental comps for a particular property.
The recent asking-rent direction is cooling, but it interrupts rather than erases the longer record. Same-month ZIP ZORI change was negative 0.6% over one year, after annualized gains of 3.0% over three years and 4.5% over five years. That divergence means the latest snapshot follows a modest retreat after a multiyear upward path, so it should not be read as a continuation of either trend. Annualized monthly-return variability of 3.3% points to some month-to-month movement around the index, limiting confidence in a single current observation as a precise unit quote. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown was 2.9%, showing the largest peak-to-trough retreat in the observed series was limited. Coverage was 98.4%, with 63 observations and 61 consecutive returns. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,936 for momentum, 2,028 for stability, and 2,327 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The income and burden screen creates a separate tension. In the matched ACS five-year ZCTA survey, median household income was $101,445, while supporting the current asking-rent index at a 30% rent-to-income screen requires $118,240 of annual income. This is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; the asking-rent-to-income comparison is 35.0% at the reported ZCTA median income. ACS median gross rent was $2,310, which is 28.0% below Zillow’s asking-rent index. Those measures describe different universes: ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI is an asking-rent index. Within the ACS renter sample, 4,213 of 7,013 renter households, or 60.1%, reported spending at least 30% of income on rent. That aggregate burden measure does not establish the affordability or condition of any individual listing.
Bedroom figures should be treated as modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder produces monthly modelled estimates of $2,197 for a studio, $2,469 for one bedroom, $2,956 for two bedrooms, $4,009 for three bedrooms, and $4,655 for four bedrooms. The local HUD two-bedroom FMR is $2,610. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and the modelled estimates use its relative bedroom structure rather than claiming that observed units lease at those exact prices. Differences in unit condition, utilities, lease terms, concessions, availability, and actual bedroom count can produce outcomes materially different from this ladder.
The matched ZCTA’s housing-stock evidence provides scale but not a listing-level availability conclusion. ACS reports 15,243 housing units, including 674 vacant units, for a 4.4% overall vacancy rate. The structure mix includes 9,478 single-family units and 2,470 units in large multifamily structures. Of all vacant units, 194 were classified as vacant for rent. This is a stock-and-survey view rather than a real-time count of marketable rentals, and vacant-for-rent status does not prove that any particular unit is available, priced near ZORI, suitable for a prospective renter, or free of restrictions. The inventory composition also does not identify whether currently advertised homes resemble the rental types blended into the asking-rent index.
For-sale evidence offers a different, direct ZIP-level reading and should remain in that universe. Redfin’s rolling-three-month resale observation recorded a median sold price of $769,826, down 4.9% year over year, with 48 homes sold and a median 45 days on market. Active listings numbered 99, while reported inventory was 49 homes and months of supply stood at 3.1. The average sale-to-list ratio was 100.9%, 49.0% of homes sold above list, and 50.3% went off market within two weeks. These are resale liquidity, pricing, marketing-time, inventory, and sale-to-list signals—not rental transactions, rental comparable evidence, or property operating economics. The combination of a lower median sold price with above-list and quick-off-market shares resists a simple characterization of the ZIP’s for-sale conditions.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the ZIP median sold price produces a 4.6% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or valuation conclusion because it omits operating costs, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, turnover, vacancy at a property, and the mismatch between an asking-rent index and a resale median. The resale evidence also challenges a simplistic reading of rent cooling: the latest asking-rent decline and the income screen point toward pressure on the rental snapshot, while sale-to-list and marketing-time signals show that the direct resale series has its own, mixed liquidity pattern. Neither dataset establishes causation between the rental and for-sale markets.
Interpretation is constrained by source design and timing. Zillow aggregates asking-rent observations; ACS describes occupied renter homes through a survey; HUD supplies an administrative standard; and Redfin describes recent ZIP resale activity. A property-level review would need the current advertised rent, exact bedroom count, lease duration, concessions, included and tenant-paid utilities, deposits and recurring fees, listing availability date, condition, and whether the home is actually comparable with the rental types represented by ZORI. For an owned-property screen, the specific purchase price and transaction terms would also need verification. The central question is whether a particular unit’s documented terms align with the mixed rent, income, housing-stock, and resale signals rather than with any single ZIP statistic.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI declined 0.6% over the latest same-month year, while the three-year and five-year annualized changes remained positive at 3.0% and 4.5%. The pattern is a recent cooling phase after longer-run gains, not evidence that either direction will persist. Historical coverage was high, but index variability still limits the precision of one current asking-rent snapshot.","title":"Cooling in the latest year, positive over longer horizons"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI of $2,956 is 28.0% above the ACS median gross rent of $2,310. The gap should not be treated as an error or direct rent growth calculation: ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, while ACS surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The two figures answer different questions about the local rental environment.","title":"Asking-rent index exceeds occupied-home rent survey"},{"body":"At a 30% rent-to-income screen, the current ZIP asking-rent index corresponds to required annual income of $118,240, above the matched ZCTA median household income of $101,445. ACS also reports that 60.1% of renter households spent at least 30% of income on rent. These are aggregate arithmetic and survey measures, not household-specific eligibility conclusions.","title":"Affordability arithmetic and renter burden point to pressure"},{"body":"The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale median was $769,826, down 4.9% year over year, yet the average sale-to-list ratio was 100.9% and half of listings went off market within two weeks. Annualized ZORI divided by median sold price is 4.6%, but that cross-source figure is only a screening ratio and cannot describe property-level returns.","title":"Resale signals are mixed and separate from rental evidence"}],"risks":["The ZORI figure is a blended asking-rent index, so it can differ from current advertised rents for a specific unit because of bedroom count, condition, utilities, concessions, lease terms, and listing availability.","ACS gross-rent, income, vacancy, and burden measures are five-year survey estimates for the matched ZCTA, not a real-time census of rental listings, tenants, or unit-level affordability.","HUD bedroom standards support the modelled bedroom ladder but are administrative FMR/SAFMR benchmarks rather than measured asking rents, executed lease rents, or evidence that a matching unit is available.","Redfin observations concern ZIP resale transactions and marketing conditions only; combining them with ZORI omits property expenses and cannot establish cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield."],"qa":[{"a":"The figures come from different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Differences in timing, unit mix, lease status, utility treatment, and asking versus occupied rents can all create a gap.","q":"Why is the Zillow rent figure higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, active-listing medians, or completed leases. HUD FMR/SAFMR itself is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent measure.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts actual measured rents in 93036?"},{"a":"It is a simple arithmetic screen that divides annualized asking rent by 30%. It indicates the income level associated with that selected rent-to-income threshold, but it is not financial advice, a landlord policy, an applicant qualification rule, or proof that any household can or cannot afford a particular unit.","q":"What does the 30% required-income calculation mean?"},{"a":"It should be treated as separate direct ZIP for-sale evidence. Median sold price, marketing time, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list metrics describe resale transactions rather than rental transactions. Their mixed pattern can provide context, but it cannot convert the rent-to-price screen into a cap rate or establish rental-property economics.","q":"How should the resale data affect interpretation of the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2252.615596},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2271.328835},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2315.835043},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2372.534933},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2431.293624},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2497.518386},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2582.765778},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2602.396823},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2577.295503},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2562.562694},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2578.884864},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2617.601302},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2638.108416},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2676.086499},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2713.110988},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2713.598717},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2711.328653},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2688.608538},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2661.544918},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2652.283965},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2634.483838},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2644.324122},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2634.85483},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2654.152141},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2671.624359},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2690.568332},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2709.13024},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2708.589939},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2707.9172},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2683.488314},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2665.47349},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2702.089954},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2743.513521},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2772.298048},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2780.263696},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2792.806457},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2795.379994},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2769.973471},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2749.805939},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2782.357702},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2809.433971},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2839.214224},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2860.626941},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2862.296883},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2894.401556},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2908.079614},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2946.080898},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2933.299668},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2954.345652},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2959.619981},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2966.196791},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2973.001435},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2971.583443},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2983.55039},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2998.564514},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2972.474658},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2961.400441},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2944.702819},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2956.050758},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2946.745582},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2960.668543},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2969.927196},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2955.822304}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":63,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":0.984375,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2973.001435,"endRent":2955.822304,"change":-0.005778379652884413,"cagr":-0.005778379652884413},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2708.589939,"endRent":2955.822304,"change":0.09127714809842247,"cagr":0.02954425688709761},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2372.534933,"endRent":2955.822304,"change":0.24584985573318852,"cagr":0.044944299850311786}},"maxDrawdown":-0.029154966246249026,"annualizedVolatility":0.032901892383451585,"consecutiveReturnCount":61}}