At the June 2026 Zillow endpoint, this ZIP shows a $4,091 monthly ZORI, up 8.6% on the exact same-month comparison. The immediate tension is between that asking-rent level and the household-income screen: annualized ZORI requires $163,640 of income at the 30% benchmark, versus an ACS median household income of $136,733; the resulting arithmetic share is 35.9%. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than an executed lease, a utility-inclusive tenant payment, or a quote for a particular unit. The 30% required-income screen is arithmetic only, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. It frames the data gap without establishing affordability for any individual household.
Direct for-sale evidence points in the same direction but must not be folded into rent evidence. Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation records a median sold price of $1,293,708, 6.7% above a year earlier, with 93 homes sold and a median 15 days on market. Its inventory measure is 35 homes and months of supply is 1.2; average sale-to-list is 107.7%, while 76.7% of sales cleared above list. These are for-sale market and liquidity observations, not rental transactions or rent comps. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 3.8%, only a cross-source screening ratio rather than property-level economics. The resale signals align with higher current asking rent, yet they do not erase the income-screen tension in paragraph one.
Backward-looking ZORI history characterizes the acceleration more clearly. Exact same-month annualized change is 8.61% over one year, compared with 4.47% over three years and 4.51% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path but accelerates beyond both longer comparison rates; it is not a forecast or investment recommendation. Annualized monthly-return variability is 3.22%, and the historical maximum drawdown was -9.48%. Coverage is 100% across 98 ZORI observations and 97 consecutive monthly returns. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 183 for momentum, 1,938 for stability, and 536 for the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher. The variability and drawdown mean a reader should not give one current rent snapshot the confidence implied by a smooth long-run average.
The ZORI-to-survey gap is material because the evidence universes answer different questions. In the matched Census ZCTA, ACS median gross rent is $2,809, making the current ZIP asking-rent index 45.6% higher. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and median gross rent includes selected utilities; it is neither an asking-rent series nor a current listing measure. The local HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $3,604, with ZORI 13.5% above it. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. These comparisons identify measurement differences, not a claim that any one household pays the current index or HUD amount.
Bedroom figures are best read as a sizing device rather than observed market medians. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,821 for a studio, $3,379 for one bedroom, $4,091 for two bedrooms, $5,226 for three bedrooms, and $5,417 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: the ZIP ZORI is the base index, and the local HUD ladder supplies the relative bedroom pattern. Because that pattern comes from an administrative standard, actual listings can differ by configuration, included utilities, lease terms, and other unreported unit-level features.
Housing-stock and burden figures offer context without proving present availability. The ZCTA contains 23,654 housing units and a 7.1% vacancy rate, while renters account for 41.1% of occupied homes. Of renter households, 4,530—50.2%—reported spending at least 30% of income on rent in the ACS survey. There are 732 units classified vacant for rent, a category that does not establish current availability, advertised price, condition, or suitability for a particular household. Structure counts include 16,146 single-family units and 3,933 units in large multifamily buildings. Taken together, burden, vacancy, and structure categories describe the surveyed ZCTA housing base; none proves the price, vacancy, or burden of any specific property or lease.
Broader-place comparisons are context only, not substitutes for ZIP measures. In South San Francisco city context, the asking-rent figure is $4,084; in San Mateo County context, it is $3,760; and in the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA metro context, it is $3,301. The ZIP index is near the city context but above the county and metro context. These are broader geographies and aggregated context series, so they do not change the ZIP ZORI reading, the matched-ZCTA survey findings, or the direct ZIP resale observation. Their role is to locate the reported values by named scope rather than turn city, county, or metro information into property evidence.
Interpretation should retain the geographic and data limits. The five-digit 94080 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS figures also carry the supplied margins of error. Neither an index, five-year survey, administrative standard, history series, nor rolling resale summary supplies a unit-specific lease or purchase record. Concrete property-level checks are the actual bedroom count and configuration, current advertised rent and concessions, which utilities and charges are included, lease start and term, current listing status, and, for a sale comparison, condition, sale date, and list-to-sale history. Do the actual unit records match the assumptions behind these broad screens?
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow reading places the ZIP's blended asking-rent index above both the ACS gross-rent median and the income amount implied by the 30% arithmetic screen. That is a population-level comparison, not evidence that a particular applicant, listed unit, or lease is unaffordable. It matters because it creates the report's central tension before broader-geography or resale measures are considered.","title":"Asking-rent level creates an income-screen tension"},{"body":"Current rent growth is faster than the ZIP's three- and five-year annualized changes, so the recent move extends rather than reverses the longer upward pattern. Complete stated observation coverage supports the historical calculation, yet the reported variability and drawdown caution against treating the latest ZORI reading as a stable representation of every rental type or month.","title":"Recent ZORI growth is faster, but not smooth"},{"body":"ZIP resale evidence is concurrently firm on several direct measures: sales price rose, marketing time was short, supply was limited, and transactions often cleared above list. Those conditions are contained within Redfin's for-sale observation. They corroborate the direction of higher price signals but cannot validate rents, property operations, tenant demand, or the arithmetic affordability screen.","title":"Resale signals are firm but remain a separate universe"},{"body":"ACS shows a housing base with substantial renter presence, measured vacancy, and a large share of renter households at or above the burden threshold. The vacant-for-rent count is a survey category, not live availability. ZCTA boundaries, the survey period, supplied margins of error, and property-level variation restrict how precisely these values map to a single building.","title":"Surveyed stock context does not establish live availability"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so a particular unit's bedroom count, utility treatment, concessions, timing, and condition may produce a materially different advertised or leased amount.","ACS estimates are for a matched ZCTA and span a five-year survey period, while the postal delivery ZIP can have different boundaries; survey margins and timing prevent a one-to-one listing comparison.","The history series has full stated coverage but still describes prior index behavior. Recent acceleration, variability, and maximum drawdown cannot determine a future asking-rent path or a specific property's leasing outcome.","Redfin measures closed resale activity in a rolling ZIP window. Price, marketing-time, inventory, and list signals cannot supply rental comps, operating costs, financing terms, taxes, or an economic result for any individual property."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure distinct evidence universes and timing. Zillow is a ZIP-level current asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS describes occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA over a five-year survey and defines gross rent with selected utilities. The difference is therefore not a rent-growth calculation, tenant payment record, or unit-specific quote.","q":"Why do the Zillow and ACS rent figures differ?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled ZIP estimates generated by scaling ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The HUD inputs are administrative standards rather than market quotes. The ladder standardizes the relative bedroom pattern in this screen, but it cannot replace verification of a unit's advertised rent, configuration, utility terms, or concessions.","q":"Are the studio-through-four-bedroom figures actual observed rents?"},{"a":"The history establishes that recent same-month growth is stronger than the longer annualized path and that stated coverage is complete in the supplied series. However, annualized monthly-return variability and the maximum drawdown show past movement around that path. It is backward-looking measurement, not a forecast, and cannot determine the next asking-rent reading.","q":"What does the historical series say about confidence in the current ZORI value?"},{"a":"No. Redfin's rolling ZIP resale series records completed for-sale outcomes, not rental transactions. The annualized ZORI-to-median-sold-price calculation is only a cross-source screen; it does not include a property's actual lease, operating facts, or sale-specific characteristics. Property-level comparability would require unit and transaction records that are absent from these broad measures.","q":"Does Redfin's resale evidence establish the economics of a rental property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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