ZIP 94102’s June 2026 Zillow ZORI is $3,488 per month, up 16.2% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is not a lease survey for a specific unit. The 94102 label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA, but a ZCTA is a statistical area rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP. For wider context only, the San Francisco city-scope and San Francisco County-scope rent indexes are each $4,401, while the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley metro-scope index is $3,301. The ZIP therefore sits below city and county context but above metro context.
The rent path is upward over several backward-looking windows, with the recent move notably stronger than the longer track. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 16.2% over 1 year, 6.8% over 3 years, and 5.2% over 5 years. That pattern confirms the longer positive direction rather than breaking from it, but the current acceleration should not be treated as a projection. Monthly index movements translate to 4.0% annualized variability, so a current reading carries less stability than a smooth series would imply. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown reached 20.3%, demonstrating that the index has experienced material retreat. Coverage is complete. In the supplied national history-eligible ZIP discovery universe, momentum ranked 34, stability ranked 2,614, and the balanced rank was 764; lower ranks are stronger. These are transparent discovery measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The affordability screen points to a different evidence universe and a substantial gap. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,536 among occupied renter homes, a measure that includes selected utilities and does not represent current advertised asking rent. Median household income is $60,431. Annualizing the current ZORI produces an amount equal to 69.3% of that median income, while the arithmetic income needed for the $3,488 monthly asking-rent screen at 30% is $139,520. This is a screening calculation, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. ACS also reports that 43.7% of renter households, or 8,013 of 18,344, paid at least 30% of income toward rent. Burden describes surveyed households collectively, not the affordability or terms of a particular available unit.
The bedroom figures should be read as a modelled ZIP ladder, not as measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces monthly estimates of $2,405, $2,881, $3,488, $4,456, and $4,618 from studios through four-bedroom homes. The sequence offers an internally consistent way to translate the all-types asking-rent index into bedroom sizes, but it does not establish what any specific listing asks. HUD’s $3,604 two-bedroom FMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard used for program purposes, not a market asking-rent observation. Its distinct purpose also explains why it should not be substituted for either Zillow’s observed asking-rent index or the ACS gross-rent survey.
Housing composition gives important context to both the rent and burden measures. ACS counts 23,629 housing units in the matched ZCTA, with a 15.6% vacancy rate and 1,731 vacant units classified as for rent. Renter occupancy represents 92.0% of occupied homes, while 18,617 units are in large multifamily structures. Those figures make renter and multifamily conditions central to the area-level data, yet vacancy remains a category count rather than evidence that a given building has available, comparable, or concession-adjusted homes. Likewise, a for-rent vacancy can differ by unit size, condition, lease term, utility treatment, and timing in ways that a ZIP aggregate cannot resolve.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation belongs entirely to the for-sale market. Median sold price was $777,324, up 7.2% year over year; 45 homes sold with a median 30 days on market. Inventory stood at 26 homes and months of supply were 1.7. Sale-to-list indicators were firm in this resale sample: the average sale-to-list ratio was 103.5%, and 59.2% of sales closed above list price. These measures describe resale liquidity, pricing, and marketing conditions, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by the ZIP median sold price produces a 5.38% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a property-level income measure and excludes operating costs, financing, taxes, maintenance, and the mismatch between homes sold and rentals represented by ZORI.
The central tension is that recent asking-rent momentum and the resale observation both show firm recent pricing signals, while the ACS income and rent-burden evidence presents a much tighter resident-affordability benchmark. The resale supply and sale-to-list data can be read as consistent with firm for-sale market conditions, but they neither validate the asking-rent level nor explain it. Conversely, the gap between ACS gross rent and current ZORI is expected to some degree because the sources measure different populations, periods, and rent concepts; it is not proof that either source is wrong. The history’s variability and prior drawdown further argue against placing undue confidence in a single current rent snapshot, even though the longer path remains positive.
Use the ZIP evidence as a boundary rather than as a substitute for property facts. For any listed rental, verify the unit’s bedroom count, asking-rent date, lease length, included utilities, concessions, availability status, and whether its geography is actually within the relevant delivery area. For any resale comparison, confirm property type, transaction timing, condition, list-price history, and whether the sale resembles the rental stock represented in the asking-rent index. Review ACS margins of error when using household, burden, and housing-stock estimates, and retain the distinction between the statistical ZCTA and a USPS delivery ZIP. These checks are necessary because each dataset is area-level, differently timed, and designed for a different measurement purpose.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI reached $3,488 in June 2026 after a 16.2% same-month gain. The one-year increase is materially faster than the three-year and five-year annualized changes, so recent direction extends the longer upward path but at a stronger rate. Historical variability and the prior drawdown make the current level a useful observation rather than a stable endpoint.","title":"Asking rent accelerated above its longer-run pace"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent and Zillow ZORI should not be merged: ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents. The supplied income screen places the annual income associated with the current ZORI well above matched-ZCTA median household income. Reported rent burden reinforces the area-level affordability tension without identifying conditions for any individual household or unit.","title":"Affordability measures describe a sharper resident-income constraint"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom estimates are modelled by scaling the ZIP’s all-types ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured asking rents, lease outcomes, or listing-level comparables. HUD FMR and SAFMR values are administrative, bedroom-specific standards; their role here is to supply relative bedroom scaling, not to define market rent or establish what a landlord will ask.","title":"Bedroom rents are modelled from an administrative ladder"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling ZIP resale observation shows rising median sold price, limited months of supply, above-list sale activity, and sales completed within the reported marketing period. Those are direct for-sale market signals. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price calculation is only a cross-source screening ratio because sold homes, rental listings, expenses, and ownership economics are not matched in the supplied evidence.","title":"Resale liquidity is firm, but it is not rental evidence"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is an all-types ZIP asking-rent index, so it may not match the unit mix, utilities, concessions, furnishing, lease length, or availability conditions of a particular advertised rental.","The ACS ZCTA survey measures occupied renter households over a five-year period and includes selected utilities, making its gross-rent, income, and burden estimates conceptually different from current asking-rent observations.","Vacancy and rent-burden figures are aggregate classifications. They cannot establish that any specific unit is vacant, affordable, comparable, concession-adjusted, or occupied by a household with a particular income.","Redfin resale statistics concern homes that sold in the direct ZIP observation, not rental transactions. The rent-price screen omits property-level expenses, financing, taxes, condition, and differences between sold and rented homes."],"qa":[{"a":"The figures measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Timing, population, utility treatment, and the distinction between asking and occupied-home rents can all create a substantial gap.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI much higher than ACS median gross rent here?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the all-types Zillow ZORI. They provide a relative size framework for studios through four-bedroom homes, but they do not measure active listings, executed leases, concessions, utility charges, or rents for a particular property.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"It is an arithmetic screen that annualizes the current monthly Zillow ZORI and divides it by 30%. It shows the income associated with spending that share of income on the displayed asking-rent index. It is not financial advice, a recommendation, a tenant-screening standard, or a rule determining whether any applicant qualifies for a home.","q":"What does the required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"No. It simply divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the median sold price in Redfin’s direct rolling ZIP resale observation. The numerator and denominator come from different market datasets and may represent different property mixes. The calculation excludes expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy experience, and property-specific operating facts.","q":"Does the Redfin rent-price screen show property profitability?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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