The five-digit 94107 label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, stood at $4,647 and had risen 23.8% from the same month a year earlier. Wider geographies are context rather than substitutes for this ZIP: San Francisco citywide asking-rent context was $4,401, San Francisco County asking-rent context was $4,401, and the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley metro context was $3,301. The ZIP therefore sits above each named broader rent reference while also showing a notably rapid recent increase.
The rent-history record supports an upward longer path, although its pace has changed. Exact same-month ZORI changes were 23.8% over one year, 11.5% annualized across three years, and 8.4% annualized across five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward trend, but its latest pace is faster than either longer-period measure. A 4.1% annualized spread in monthly returns means a single current rent reading warrants less confidence as a settled level, while the historical maximum drawdown of 21.2% shows that prior declines were substantial. Coverage was 99.2%, with 132 observations and 130 consecutive returns. Momentum ranked 6, stability ranked 2,652, and the balanced discovery rank was 756 among history-eligible ZIPs; these are transparent backward-looking discovery ranks, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source definitions explain why several rent figures can differ without contradicting one another. The ACS 2024 five-year matched-ZCTA survey reports median gross rent of $3,401 for occupied renter homes, includes selected utilities, and is 36.6% below the current ZIP asking-rent index. HUD’s bedroom-specific administrative two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $3,604, putting the asking index 28.9% above that standard; HUD is not an asking-rent measure. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $3,204 for a studio, $3,839 for one bedroom, $4,647 for two bedrooms, $5,936 for three bedrooms, and $6,153 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents or unit-level comparables.
The income screen creates a narrow but important tension with the headline asking index. Median household income in the matched ZCTA was $182,897, while annualizing the current asking index and applying the 30% screen produces required income of $185,880. The same arithmetic places asking rent at 30.5% of median household income. This is a screening calculation, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. ACS also reports 10,580 renter households, of which 4,153, or 39.3%, paid at least the burden threshold. That burden statistic describes surveyed occupied renter homes, not the cost, availability, or affordability of any particular current listing.
The housing-stock evidence is also a ZCTA survey view rather than a vacancy count for currently leasable apartments. The area had 19,605 housing units, a 16.1% vacancy rate, and a 64.3% renter share. Larger multifamily structures accounted for 12,952 units, compared with 2,315 single-family units, indicating that the stock mix is weighted toward larger buildings. Of vacant homes, 789 were classified as for rent. That category is informative about the stock classification but cannot establish that a particular unit is available, similarly priced, lease-ready, or comparable with Zillow’s blended asking-rent index. Survey margins of error further limit precision around local household and renter estimates.
For-sale evidence points to a comparatively active ZIP resale market, but it must remain separate from rental evidence. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, median sold price was $1,264,714, up 12.4% year over year; 119 homes sold with a median marketing time of 25 days. Inventory was 85 homes and months of supply were 2.2. The average sale-to-list result was 106.4%, while 51.8% of sold homes closed above list price. Those are resale signals, not rental transactions or rental comps. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 4.4% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Resale-price strength confirms the recent upward direction seen in rent history, yet the large sale-price denominator challenges any attempt to interpret rent movement alone as property economics.
Viewed together, the strongest tension is not a simple rent-versus-sale story. The ZIP’s current asking-rent index is elevated relative to city, county, metro, ACS, and HUD context measures, while its recent rent momentum is much stronger than its multi-year annualized path. At the same time, the income screen sits just beyond the local median household income and the surveyed renter burden remains material. The resale observation shows strong pricing and sale-to-list conditions in a separate market universe, but it does not resolve whether current asking rents are sustainable for a particular building, lease term, bedroom count, or household. High historical variability further argues against treating the latest index as a fixed local rent condition.
Decision use should remain bounded by the data’s scopes and timing. Zillow ZORI does not identify a specific address, unit condition, concessions, furnished status, lease length, or utility package; ACS is a retrospective survey of occupied renter homes; HUD standards are administrative benchmarks; and Redfin describes resale rather than rental activity. Property-level review should verify the actual bedroom count, monthly asking terms, included utilities, concessions, lease duration, unit availability, and whether the listing fits the relevant building type. For a resale comparison, verify closed-sale dates, property condition, list-price history, unit characteristics, and whether the sale and rental observations refer to genuinely comparable homes before relying on any cross-source screen.
","findings":[{"body":"ZORI’s recent increase exceeds its multi-year annualized pace. That agreement on direction supports reading the current figure as part of an upward historical path, but the previous drawdown and weak stability discovery result mean the latest level should be treated as a changeable index rather than a settled benchmark.","title":"Recent asking-rent acceleration exceeds the longer path"},{"body":"The asking-rent index, ACS gross-rent median, and HUD bedroom standard answer different questions. Asking rent reflects a blended market index, ACS reflects occupied renter homes with selected utilities, and HUD provides an administrative standard. The bedroom ladder is useful for scaling the index, but it does not measure actual rents for units of each size.","title":"Rent comparisons require source discipline"},{"body":"The current asking-rent screen slightly exceeds matched-ZCTA median household income at the stated burden threshold. Survey burden results show that a substantial share of renter households already spend at least that threshold, yet neither statistic determines affordability, qualification, or terms for a specific unit or household.","title":"Household-income and burden evidence are a meaningful constraint"},{"body":"The ZIP resale observation shows price growth, limited supply, relatively quick marketing, and frequent above-list outcomes. Those conditions align directionally with stronger recent rent history, but they do not create rental comparables. The rent-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screen and cannot establish property-level economics.","title":"Resale conditions are strong but remain a separate market"}],"risks":["The report combines several valid but noninterchangeable evidence universes. Treating asking-rent indexes, gross-rent survey medians, HUD standards, and resale prices as interchangeable can create a misleading conclusion about a particular lease or property.","Historical rent appreciation is backward-looking and includes meaningful volatility and drawdown. A current asking-rent snapshot may change, and the history does not establish future rent direction, occupancy, renewal behavior, or income growth.","Vacancy and renter-burden measures are survey classifications for the matched ZCTA. They do not prove that a particular apartment is vacant, available for rent, affordable to an applicant, or representative of current listings.","Resale indicators describe homes that sold within the direct ZIP observation window, not rental transactions. Median sale price and the cross-source rent-price screen omit financing, operating costs, condition, taxes, concessions, and unit-specific differences."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures use different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a retrospective survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The gap therefore does not by itself show an error or a change affecting every renter.","q":"Why is the asking-rent index above the ACS gross-rent median?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall ZORI level with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They provide a consistent size-based screen, but they are not measured bedroom rents, listing medians, lease records, or evidence that a specific unit can be rented at that amount.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for studios through larger homes?"},{"a":"It is arithmetic that annualizes the asking-rent index and compares it with household income using the stated burden threshold. It is not financial advice, an underwriting standard, a landlord policy, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual eligibility depends on listing terms, income documentation, utilities, concessions, and other unit-specific facts.","q":"What does the income screen mean for a household considering a listing?"},{"a":"No. Redfin’s ZIP observation describes for-sale transactions and market liquidity, while ZORI describes asking rents. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio. It excludes operating costs, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy experience, property condition, and differences between sold homes and rental inventory.","q":"Can the resale data be used to infer rental returns?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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