Acceleration, rather than a smooth path, is the central rental signal in 94110. Zillow’s ZIP ZORI reached $4,327 in June 2026. Its backward-looking exact same-month history shows an 18.31% rise over one year, versus annualized gains of 8.63% over three years and 6.70% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path but breaks from its earlier pace. When monthly rent returns are annualized, their variability is 3.33%. Separately, the series’ maximum drawdown reached 15.28% from an earlier high. Full coverage across 122 monthly observations supports the record, while transparent national discovery ranks of 21 for momentum, 2,076 for stability, and 438 for balance show why the high-variability designation matters. These are historical measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations; the uneven path warrants less confidence in one current rent snapshot than in the full record.
That current reading is Zillow ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a quote for one apartment. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. As wider context only, the City of San Francisco context, a city-scope comparison, and San Francisco County context, a county-scope comparison, each report about $4,401, while the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA metro context, a metro-scope comparison, reports $3,301. The ZIP’s asking-rent index is thus near the named city and county contexts but above the wider metro context. Those broader figures provide scale, not substitute ZIP-level rental evidence.
Different rent sources answer different questions and should not be blended into a single market price. In the ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey, median gross rent is $2,678 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The current Zillow asking-rent index is 1.62 times that survey median, a difference in timing, household status, utility treatment, and measure type rather than proof of disagreement. The provided local HUD FY 2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $3,604. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Neither the ACS survey result nor the HUD standard measures current advertised rents for a specific unit, and neither should replace the Zillow asking-rent index.
Bedroom detail is supplied through a scaling exercise, not observed listings. Scaling the overall ZIP Zillow index by the local HUD ladder produces monthly modelled estimates of $2,984 for a studio, $3,574 for one bedroom, $4,327 for two bedrooms, $5,528 for three bedrooms, and $5,729 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The calculation preserves the ZIP-wide index while applying the local HUD bedroom relationship; it does not establish what any available apartment is asking. The overall ZORI, the HUD administrative standard, and the derived bedroom ladder remain separate analytical lenses, particularly where utilities, condition, layout, lease terms, or concessions differ at the unit level.
The income and burden screen creates a separate tension. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $158,351, while a 30% required-income screen applied to the current monthly Zillow index produces $173,080. Annualized asking rent therefore equals 32.79% of that median household income. This 30% screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS occupied-renter survey universe, 5,534 of 15,843 renter households, or 34.93%, reported paying at least that threshold for rent. The burden measure describes surveyed occupied renter households, not the terms, income, utility bill, or affordability of a particular vacant apartment. It nevertheless shows that the current asking-rent screen exceeds the ZIP’s reported median-income benchmark.
Housing stock and vacancy add useful context but cannot prove live availability. The matched ACS ZCTA contains 30,758 housing units, including 27,208 occupied units; renter households account for 58.23% of occupied homes. There are 3,550 vacant units, producing an overall vacancy rate of 11.54%. The stock spans both single-family and large-multifamily structures, so an aggregate vacancy rate does not identify the type, bedroom count, lease readiness, condition, or advertised price of an open unit. Vacancy categories are survey classifications rather than confirmed current listings. A vacant count should therefore be read alongside the asking-rent index and the property-specific availability check, not as evidence that a renter can secure a particular home at the ZIP-wide level.
A separate direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation shows a fast for-sale market, not rental transactions. Redfin reports a median sold price of $1,719,611, up 18.19% year over year, with 139 homes sold and a median 16 days on market. Inventory is 65 homes and months of supply is 1.4. The average sale-to-list figure is 119.66%, while 80.08% of sales closed above list; both are resale-market signals. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 3.02%, solely a cross-source screening ratio rather than a property-level operating measure. The similar resale and asking-rent annual changes confirm recent directional strength across separate measures, but the resale evidence does not resolve the income screen or turn ZIP rent growth into property-specific economics.
Important limits remain before any ZIP-level metric is attached to a property. ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS is a retrospective survey of occupied homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin describes completed resale activity. None establishes the current rent, condition, utility treatment, availability, or sale economics of one address. Concrete property-level checks that can resolve those gaps include live same-bedroom asking comparisons, exact included utilities and concessions, lease duration, unit condition, actual listing status, and the property’s own sale and list history. For a for-sale address, property-specific fees, taxes, insurance, financing terms, and tenant status also remain outside this packet. Does an identified unit’s current ask, bedroom configuration, availability, utility terms, and sale record actually match these ZIP-level lenses?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current asking-rent reading and its history point in the same upward direction, but the latest same-month gain is well above the three- and five-year annualized changes. The history has complete monthly coverage, yet its high-variability classification, prior drawdown, and weak stability discovery rank argue against treating one monthly endpoint as a settled market level. This is a backward-looking measurement, not an outlook.","title":"Recent rent acceleration outran the longer trend"},{"body":"ZORI measures a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The large numerical gaps between them are decision-relevant, but they do not identify an error or establish the rent for a current listing.","title":"The three rent benchmarks are not interchangeable"},{"body":"Applying the 30% arithmetic screen to the ZIP’s current Zillow index produces a required income above the ACS ZCTA median household income. Separately, about one-third of surveyed occupied renter households report rent burden at or above that threshold. These screens signal broad affordability pressure, but neither proves that a specific household can or cannot afford a particular unit.","title":"ZIP-wide asking rent exceeds the median-income screen"},{"body":"The direct Redfin resale observation shows a strong year-over-year sold-price increase, limited months of supply, short marketing time, and sale-to-list results above parity. Those for-sale signals directionally align with recent rent acceleration. They do not represent rental transactions, however, and the annualized rent-to-sale-price calculation is only a cross-source screen, not an address-level operating result.","title":"Resale activity confirms momentum but remains a separate market"}],"risks":["Geographic alignment is approximate: the five-digit Zillow market identifier matches a Census ZCTA, but the ZCTA is statistical rather than USPS delivery geography. Comparisons can therefore fail for a property near a delivery-boundary edge.","The sharp one-year ZORI increase follows a series classified as high variability and containing a meaningful historical drawdown. A current monthly index reading may therefore be less representative of a unit’s attainable rent than the broader history.","ACS vacancy is a survey classification, not a live listing feed. It cannot establish that a vacant unit is rentable now, matches a needed bedroom count, has acceptable condition, or carries the ZIP-wide asking rent.","Redfin’s sale, inventory, and sale-to-list figures describe completed and active for-sale activity only. They omit property-specific expenses, financing, condition, tenancy, and lease terms needed to connect resale evidence to a particular address."],"qa":[{"a":"These sources intentionally measure different universes. ACS is a multiyear survey of occupied renter households and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The shared five-digit geography helps comparison, but the Census ZCTA is statistical rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and the difference cannot price a current listing.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent materially lower than Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled estimates produced by scaling the overall ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is itself an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The resulting figures organize the ZIP-wide index by bedroom relationship, but they are not measured bedroom rents and require live unit comparables for property-level use.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed ZIP rents?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply annualizes the ZIP-level monthly Zillow index and divides it by 30% to show an arithmetic income benchmark. It is not advice, a lender standard, a landlord policy, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual affordability and qualification depend on the household, the specific lease, utilities, concessions, deposits, and other terms not reported here.","q":"Does the 30% required-income calculation determine whether someone qualifies for an apartment?"},{"a":"It does not directly measure either. Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP observation reports the for-sale market through sold prices, homes sold, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals. Its agreement with recent rent direction is only a cross-market comparison. The annualized ZORI-to-sold-price figure is a screening ratio and does not provide property-specific income, expenses, or transaction economics.","q":"What does the Redfin section say about rental demand or property economics?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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