ZIP 94112 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $3,389 per month, up 3.95% from a year earlier. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-specific quote. At a 30% gross-income screen, that monthly index translates arithmetically to $135,560 of annual income, marginally above the ZCTA’s $135,119 median household income. The screen is not advice and does not determine applicant qualification.
The current increase continues a longer upward path, although the pace has eased relative to the prior multi-year record. Exact same-month ZORI changes annualized to 3.95% over one year, 4.48% over three years, and 5.25% over five years. Thus, recent direction confirms the longer positive path but does not match its earlier average pace. Monthly ZORI returns, annualized, varied at 6.08%, while the historical maximum drawdown reached 12.36% from a prior peak. Full history coverage comprises 91 observations and 90 consecutive monthly returns, with 100% available coverage. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 546 for momentum, 2,883 for stability, and 1,619 for the balanced measure. High variability means one current rent snapshot deserves less confidence as a durable level than the complete historical record; these are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Broader-area rent context points in two directions. For Zillow asking-rent context, San Francisco city records $4,401, San Francisco County records $4,401, and the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley metro records $3,301. ZIP 94112 therefore sits below the named city and county context but above the named metro context. Those wider figures do not replace the ZIP index or establish a local submarket boundary; they simply frame the relative position of this ZIP’s observed asking-rent level. The ZIP’s recent rent gain is consequently more useful as a local timing signal than as proof that it should converge toward either broader benchmark.
The bedroom view is a modelled estimate created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder, not a set of measured bedroom rents. The modelled monthly estimates are $2,337 for a studio, $2,799 for one bedroom, $3,389 for two bedrooms, $4,329 for three bedrooms, and $4,487 for four bedrooms. HUD’s local two-bedroom FMR standard is $3,604. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so its relationship to the ZORI-derived ladder should not be read as a negotiated-rent spread. Actual unit rents can differ with condition, utilities, lease terms, and the specific bedroom count.
The matched ACS ZCTA reports 24,559 housing units, including 23,225 occupied units and 1,334 vacant units, for a 5.4% vacancy rate. It identifies 7,988 renter-occupied homes, equal to a 34.4% renter share, while the stock is more heavily represented by single-family structures than by large multifamily buildings. There are 177 vacant units classified for rent. These are area-level counts and classifications, not evidence that a particular listed unit is available or that its vacancy duration, price, or condition matches the ZORI index. The housing profile nonetheless provides useful context for interpreting a ZIP rent measure drawn from varied rental inventory.
ACS reports a $2,263 median gross rent for occupied renter homes in the ZCTA, and gross rent includes selected utilities. Zillow’s asking-rent index is 49.8% higher, a gap that reflects different universes rather than a direct contradiction: ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, while ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents. ACS also shows 44.1% of renter households paying at least the burden threshold, compared with 39.6% for San Francisco city’s ACS context. Burden is not proof that any individual unit is unaffordable. Together with the arithmetic income screen, however, the figures show why a current asking-rent snapshot should be separated from the rents paid by incumbent occupied households.
The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation shows a for-sale market that is markedly more intense than the modest current rent-growth reading alone might imply. Median sold price was $1,349,695, up 16.35% year over year; 113 homes sold with a median 13 days on market. The ZIP recorded 159 active listings, a 32-home inventory reading, and 0.9 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 121.87%, 84.63% of sales closed above list, and 55.7% went off market within two weeks. These are resale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions or property economics. The annualized ZORI divided by median sold price is a 3.01% cross-source screening ratio only. Fast resale activity and price appreciation challenge any assumption that the slower rent-growth rate alone describes all local housing-market pressure.
Important limits remain. The ZORI series is a ZIP-level blended index, ACS estimates carry survey uncertainty and use a ZCTA geography, HUD standards are administrative benchmarks, and Redfin measures resale rather than rental activity. Before extending this report to a specific property, verify the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease length, concession treatment, unit condition, listing date, occupancy status, and whether the address is served by the ZIP geography used here. Compare any property’s asking rent with directly relevant available listings rather than treating modelled bedroom estimates, ACS gross rent, or the resale screen as a valuation of that property.
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP’s current Zillow asking-rent index increased from the same month a year earlier, extending positive three- and five-year annualized growth. However, the current one-year pace is below the longer annualized rates. With high historical variability and a material prior drawdown, the latest index is better treated as a current observation within a changing series than as a stable long-run baseline.","title":"Asking-rent growth remains positive but has moderated"},{"body":"The arithmetic income needed to keep the current Zillow index at 30% of gross income is slightly above ZCTA median household income. Meanwhile, ACS median gross rent is materially lower because it measures occupied renter households and includes selected utilities. The ACS burden share indicates that a substantial portion of renter households already exceed the burden threshold, but it cannot establish affordability for a particular applicant or unit.","title":"Income screen and incumbent-renter evidence create a tension"},{"body":"Studio-through-four-bedroom estimates are derived by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to ZIP ZORI. They make the index easier to interpret across bedroom counts, but they are not observed rents for available units. HUD FMR is an administrative standard rather than an asking-rent dataset, so differences between the modelled ladder and HUD should not be treated as a market discount, premium, or lease outcome.","title":"Bedroom figures are a standardized model, not rental comps"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale evidence shows rapid marketing, limited supply, strong sale-to-list performance, and a sharp year-over-year median-price increase. That for-sale intensity is distinct from the rental market and does not establish rental demand or unit-level economics. It does create a decision tension: resale conditions appear forceful while the latest annual asking-rent increase is positive but below the ZIP’s longer historical growth rates.","title":"Resale conditions are tighter than rent growth alone suggests"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the rent, utilities, concessions, condition, or lease structure of any specific available home.","ACS ZCTA measures are five-year survey estimates of occupied households, not current listings, and the ZCTA boundary is statistical rather than identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.","The resale dataset measures rolling-three-month for-sale transactions and listing conditions; strong sale-to-list results or limited supply cannot be converted into rental income, net return, or property-level economics.","High historical rent variability and a prior drawdown mean that a single current index reading may move materially over time, even when the longer historical path has been positive."],"qa":[{"a":"They describe different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Existing tenants, utility treatment, survey timing, and the distinction between asking and paid rents can all create a sizable gap without either source being incorrect.","q":"Why is Zillow rent much higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates produced by scaling the ZIP-level Zillow index through the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured rents, lease quotes, or direct listing comparables. A specific property can differ because of its exact bedroom count, utilities, condition, building type, concessions, and lease terms.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual rents for studios or larger homes?"},{"a":"No. The calculation simply divides the annualized Zillow asking-rent index by a 30% gross-income assumption. It is arithmetic for comparison purposes, not financial advice, a household budget, a landlord policy, or an applicant qualification standard. Actual qualification rules may use different income definitions, credit criteria, guarantors, deposits, household composition, and lease requirements.","q":"Does the required-income calculation determine whether someone can rent in this ZIP?"},{"a":"It is annualized ZIP Zillow ZORI divided by the ZIP’s median sold price in the direct rolling-three-month Redfin resale dataset. The ratio is only a cross-source screening comparison between a rent index and a resale-price statistic. It excludes operating costs, taxes, insurance, financing, vacancy experience, maintenance, property differences, and transaction costs, so it is not a cap rate, yield, return, or valuation.","q":"What does the Redfin rent-price screening ratio mean?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP 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