At $5,472 per month in June 2026, ZIP 94114’s Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) frames the current rent signal as a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a quote for a uniform apartment or a lease executed this month. The source definition is central: ZORI tracks asking rents, not household rent payments, utilities, or a bedroom-specific inventory slice. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That geographic match permits comparison, but it does not erase differences in sample, timing, or measure.
The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year estimate places median gross rent at $3,071, a survey measure of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The ZORI is 78.2% above it, a gap which should not be treated as error or a rent-growth calculation because these series cover different universes and periods. ACS reports median household income of $204,134. Applying the 30% screen to the current ZORI produces required income of $218,880 and an asking-rent-to-income result of 32.2%. That is arithmetic, not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or proof of what any household pays. The ACS five-year survey’s population and utility treatment also prevent it from serving as a direct substitute for Zillow’s current asking-rent index.
Backward-looking rather than forward-looking, the ZIP ZORI history through its stated June endpoint shows annualized exact same-month increases of 18.7% over one year, 8.9% over three years, and 7.4% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer positive path, but at a materially faster recent pace; that description is measurement, not a forecast or investment recommendation. History coverage is 99.1%, so the series is nearly complete for its available window. Its annualized monthly-return variability, at 3.2%, indicates relatively contained month-to-month changes by that metric. Yet a historical peak-to-trough drawdown of 12.4% shows that a current snapshot can still sit meaningfully away from an earlier level. Momentum, stability, and balanced national discovery ranks of 20, 1,932, and 359 among history-eligible ZIPs are transparent sorting tools, with lower ranks higher, not predictive grades.
Bedroom detail requires a different lens. The FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, and it runs from $2,485 for a studio to $4,772 for four bedrooms. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $3,773 for a studio, $4,520 for one bedroom, $5,472 for two bedrooms, $6,990 for three bedrooms, and $7,245 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents or unit-level comparables. They preserve the area’s HUD bedroom relationships while anchoring the overall level to Zillow’s blended index, so they cannot establish the asking price, utility package, condition, or lease availability of a particular apartment.
Survey housing counts add another tension rather than a verdict on availability. The ACS ZCTA contains 18,771 housing units, with a 10.2% vacancy rate; it records 9,238 renter-occupied homes, or a 54.8% renter share. Of the renter households in the burden tabulation, 2,806—or 30.4%—had gross rent at or above the burden threshold. This burden result describes surveyed households, not an individual renter’s budget or the affordability of a listed unit. The stock table identifies 5,060 single-family units and 1,669 units in large multifamily structures, categories that help describe the ZCTA’s housing mix without converting either category into a rental-comparable set. Nor does the aggregate vacancy rate prove that a specific vacant home is rentable, habitable, or currently offered.
Broader geography supplies context only. In San Francisco city context and San Francisco County context, the reported rent measure is $4,401, below the ZIP index; in San Francisco–Oakland–Berkeley, CA metro context, the reported rent measure is $3,301 and the metro rent-to-income measure is 29.1%. These city, county, and metro figures are not ZIP observations and cannot replace either the ZIP ZORI or the matched-ZCTA ACS results. They nevertheless sharpen the comparison: the ZIP’s current asking-rent index is above all three wider rent benchmarks, while its simple income screen is above the metro context figure. Wider geographic context establishes relative position only, not a direct substitute for a ZIP-level rental comp set.
Resale evidence is notably brisk, but it is a different market. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation through June reports a median sold price of $2,209,501, up 16.3% year over year, from 149 homes sold; median marketing time was 14 days. The inventory measure was 33 homes and months of supply stood at 0.7. Sale-to-list signals stayed in the for-sale universe: the average sale-to-list ratio was 119.96%, and 78.7% of sold homes closed above list. Those measures describe ZIP resale pricing and liquidity, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property-level operating economics. The concurrent resale price change and rent-history acceleration point in the same observed direction, but neither establishes why the other moved or what happens next.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price is 2.97%, a cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or a substitute for expenses and financing. The sharp resale signals confirm the history’s recent upward direction, yet the rent-versus-income screen and the large ACS/Zillow level difference challenge any simple claim that the current index represents broadly affordable occupied rent. Both tensions are descriptive, not causal. Property-specific work would need verified comparable asking rents by bedroom, lease term and included utilities; current unit availability and condition; building type; and the actual listing, sale, and operating-cost records. What do those unit-level documents show relative to the modelled ladder and today’s index?
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZORI is $5,472 per month, while the arithmetic 30% income screen requires $218,880. That exceeds the ACS ZCTA median household income of $204,134, producing a 32.2% asking-rent-to-income measure. This is a current asking-rent screen against a five-year survey income statistic, not a household underwriting result or a prediction.","title":"Current asking-rent screen exceeds the ZCTA income benchmark"},{"body":"The same-month ZORI growth measure accelerated to 18.7% for one year, versus 8.9% over three years and 7.4% over five years. A 3.2% annualized monthly-return variability measure suggests limited month-to-month dispersion, but the historical 12.4% drawdown supports qualified confidence in a single current value. These backward-looking measurements do not predict subsequent rents.","title":"Recent rent acceleration is faster than the longer record"},{"body":"The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR schedule is administrative and bedroom specific. Applying its local ladder to ZIP ZORI creates modelled estimates between $3,773 for a studio and $7,245 for four bedrooms. The intermediate values are scaled, not observed rental quotations; comparable listings must still be verified for bedroom count, utilities, availability, condition, and lease terms.","title":"Bedroom values are scaled estimates, not rent observations"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation recorded a $2,209,501 median sold price, 149 homes sold, 14 median days on market, 0.7 months of supply, and a 119.96% average sale-to-list ratio. These for-sale metrics reinforce a brisk contemporaneous resale picture, but they neither measure rental transactions nor convert the 2.97% rent-price screen into a return measure.","title":"Resale activity is strong but belongs to the for-sale universe"}],"risks":["ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, so it can diverge from signed leases, a specific property’s asking price, utility treatment, concessions, bedroom mix, and actual availability at the time of review.","The ZCTA designation creates a statistical geographic match, but it is not a USPS delivery ZIP and does not remove timing, sample, or universe differences between Zillow and ACS.","Modelled bedroom estimates inherit both the HUD administrative ladder and the blended ZIP index, so they may not match an individual unit’s advertised rent, bedroom configuration, utilities, condition, or lease terms.","Aggregate vacancy and rent-burden estimates cannot demonstrate availability or affordability of a particular unit, while resale metrics and rent-price screening omit costs needed to establish property economics."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The ACS value is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. Different dates, sampled homes, utility treatment, and source definitions make the gap informative but not a direct like-for-like pricing comparison.","q":"Why does Zillow ZORI exceed the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"The one-year same-month measure exceeds the three-year and five-year measures, so the recent observed pace is faster than the longer historical path. That confirms acceleration rather than reversal in the series. However, volatility and a prior drawdown mean the current value remains one historical observation; the record is backward-looking and makes no claim about next month or next year.","q":"Does the history show acceleration without predicting future rents?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the overall ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is administrative and bedroom specific, whereas ZORI is blended asking rent. Neither measure verifies a specific apartment’s advertised rent, amenities, included utilities, condition, or lease structure.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for available apartments?"},{"a":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP observation concerns homes sold and listed in the for-sale market. Its price, days on market, supply, and sale-to-list measures indicate resale activity and liquidity only. They are not rental transactions or operating statements. Dividing annualized ZORI by sold price is a cross-source screen, not a property return calculation.","q":"What does the Redfin evidence establish about this ZIP?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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