In 94115, Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index, which blends rental types, stood at $4,596 in June 2026 after a 23.4% same-month increase. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA identifier. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area, however, and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That distinction matters because the current Zillow reading represents observed asking-rent conditions in the ZIP market, while the Census measures describe surveyed households in the matched statistical area rather than a set of currently advertised units.
The matched ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent was $2,476, and gross rent is a survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The current asking-rent index is therefore 1.86 times that ACS median, a substantial source-universe gap rather than proof that any given occupied household or vacant listing is priced at either figure. For wider context, San Francisco city’s asking-rent context was $4,401, San Francisco County’s asking-rent context was $4,401, and the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA metro asking-rent context was $3,301. Those city, county, and metro figures provide broader comparison scopes only; they are not ZIP-level substitutes.
A local HUD bedroom ladder scales the ZIP index into modelled monthly estimates of $3,169 for a studio, $3,796 for one bedroom, $4,596 for two bedrooms, $5,871 for three bedrooms, and $6,085 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents, and they preserve the relationship between the local HUD ladder and the ZIP-wide Zillow index. The corresponding HUD standards are $2,485, $2,977, $3,604, $4,604, and $4,772. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent observation, so neither the HUD figures nor the scaled estimates establish what a particular available apartment commands.
The affordability screen sharpens the difference between an index and household survey data. ACS reports median household income of $151,524, while annualizing the current asking-rent index and applying a 30% screen produces required income of $183,840; the resulting asking-rent-to-income screen is 36.4%. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, 33.9% of surveyed renter households were rent burdened at 30% or more of income. The ZCTA housing evidence also shows an 11.9% vacancy rate, including 489 units vacant for rent, while 6,409 housing units were in large multifamily structures. Vacancy and burden describe aggregate conditions and cannot prove availability, affordability, or financial strain for a particular unit or household.
The historical record shows strong recent direction but a less even path underneath it. Exact same-month ZIP asking-rent changes annualized to 23.4% over one year, 10.9% over three years, and 8.7% over five years, so the latest movement accelerates beyond both longer lookbacks rather than breaking from their positive direction. When monthly changes are annualized, variability reaches 3.8%, meaning a single current reading should carry less confidence than a similarly rising but steadier series. The index also experienced an 18.2% maximum drawdown. Coverage was 98.4%; the transparent national discovery ranks were 8 for momentum and 2,483 for stability among history-eligible ZIPs. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation presents a separate for-sale market picture. Median sold price was $2,029,041, up 27.2% year over year, with 88 homes sold and a median 20 days on market. There were 128 active listings, down 21.2%, while reported inventory was 25, down 59.5%, and months of supply stood at 0.8. Average sale-to-list reached 110.6%, with 65.2% of sales closing above list. Together, those resale signals describe transaction pace, available supply, and sale pricing in 94115’s for-sale market; they are not rental transactions, rental comparables, or evidence about lease economics.
The strongest tension is that resale and rent evidence both show sharp recent upward movement, yet the broader affordability and history evidence argues against treating that shared direction as a complete current-rent conclusion. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the ZIP median sold price equals a 2.7% cross-source screening ratio. It is only a comparison of an asking-rent index with a resale median and does not incorporate operating costs, financing, taxes, vacancy experience, or the terms of a specific lease. The large difference from ACS gross rent, the income screen, and the earlier drawdown each limit how much confidence belongs in one headline rent or resale snapshot.
Interpretation remains limited by differing geographies, timing, and measurement rules: Zillow tracks a blended asking-rent index, ACS is a five-year household survey with sampling uncertainty, HUD supplies administrative standards, and Redfin records recent resale activity. Property-level review should reconcile the advertised rent with bedroom count, lease length, concessions, included utilities, condition, and comparable active listings; a resale review should separately verify property type, list history, condition, and recently closed ZIP transactions. The evidence does not establish a unit’s actual rent, vacancy, buyer demand, or household affordability. Does the specific property evidence align with the index-based and resale-based signals without mixing their distinct source universes?
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP asking-rent index increased much faster over the latest same-month year than over the three-year and five-year annualized periods. That confirms a positive longer path while indicating recent acceleration. Historical variability and the prior maximum drawdown mean the current index is informative but should not be treated as a stable, smooth progression.","title":"Recent asking-rent acceleration sits on a variable history"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI is a blended ZIP-level asking-rent index, whereas ACS median gross rent measures occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. Their large gap is therefore a source-scope difference with decision relevance, not a direct estimate of lease renewal pricing, a unit’s advertised rent, or a household’s actual monthly payment.","title":"Current asking rent materially exceeds the occupied-home ACS benchmark"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation shows a rising median sold price, short marketing time, limited months of supply, above-list sale pricing, and a meaningful volume of completed sales. Those are for-sale liquidity and pricing signals only. They can be compared directionally with rent data, but they cannot be converted into rental transaction evidence or property-level economics.","title":"Resale liquidity signals are strong but belong to a separate market"},{"body":"Studio-through-four-bedroom estimates were generated by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The method creates a consistent modelled range across bedroom counts, but it does not measure advertised or signed rents by bedroom. HUD FMR/SAFMR figures are administrative standards, so the ladder should be checked against unit-specific listings and lease terms.","title":"The bedroom figures are ladder-based model outputs"}],"risks":["The Zillow index reflects typical observed asking rents across blended rental types, so it may differ from executed leases, renewal rents, concession-adjusted rents, or the asking price of a specific available dwelling.","ACS gross rent and income figures come from a five-year survey of occupied households in a matched ZCTA, with sampling uncertainty and a different time basis from the current ZIP asking-rent index.","Redfin resale data describe recent for-sale transactions and listing conditions only. Median sold price, supply, sale-to-list results, and marketing time cannot establish rental demand, lease pricing, or operating outcomes.","The bedroom estimates inherit both the ZIP-wide index and HUD ladder assumptions. They should not be read as measured bedroom rents, and vacancy or rent-burden statistics do not verify conditions at a particular property."],"qa":[{"a":"The two figures are drawn from different evidence universes. Zillow measures a current typical asking-rent index across rental types in the ZIP market. ACS measures gross rent paid by occupied renter households in the matched ZCTA over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities. The difference is meaningful context, but it is not a direct lease-price comparison.","q":"Why is the current Zillow rent much higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"It is a mechanical calculation that annualizes the current monthly Zillow asking-rent index and divides it by 30%. It identifies the household income associated with that arithmetic threshold. It is not financial advice, a rent recommendation, a prediction of household behavior, or an applicant screening or qualification rule used by any landlord.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"Recent asking-rent growth is stronger than the longer three-year and five-year annualized changes, which supports a positive recent direction. However, the record is classified as high variability and contains a substantial prior drawdown. Those backward-looking features mean the current index should be interpreted as one observed point in a changing series rather than a dependable forward path.","q":"How should the history data affect confidence in the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"It compares annualized ZIP ZORI with the ZIP median sold price from the direct resale observation. That can help show the relative scale of two cross-source headline figures. It cannot measure property expenses, taxes, financing, maintenance, actual lease income, or any unit-specific financial outcome, because neither source supplies those complete property-level inputs.","q":"What can the resale rent-to-price screening ratio tell a reader?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and 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