The five-digit label 94116 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The latest ZIP Zillow ZORI is $3,998 per month, up 22.85% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-level comp set or a measure of every occupied rental home. That current level is therefore most useful as a broad ZIP asking-rent signal, while the unusually strong recent gain makes source boundaries and historical stability especially important.
That sharp latest movement confirms the longer history’s upward direction but runs materially faster than its earlier pace. Exact same-month annualized change was 22.85% over one year, 10.11% over three years, and 7.79% over five years. The history has 98.85% coverage, supporting a substantial backward-looking record rather than an isolated observation. Annualized monthly-return variability reached 5.13%, so any one current rent reading deserves less confidence than a smooth series would warrant. Separately, the record’s maximum drawdown was 10.86%, showing that prior asking-rent declines have been meaningful despite the current strength. Among history-eligible ZIPs, transparent national discovery ranks were 10 for momentum, 2,839 for stability, and 881 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks stronger. These are retrospective measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Comparison begins with a source boundary: the matched ACS five-year ZCTA survey reports median gross rent of $2,999 among occupied renter homes, and gross rent includes selected utilities. It is consequently not a like-for-like substitute for the current Zillow asking-rent index. The same ACS survey places median household income at $158,921, a household measure that also does not identify an individual renter’s income. For wider asking-rent context only, the San Francisco city context and San Francisco County context each show about $4,401, while the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley metro context is $3,301. Those city, county, and metro figures are comparators, not ZIP replacements.
Bedroom detail should be read as a scaling model, not as observed bedroom-rent evidence. Using the local HUD ladder to scale ZIP ZORI produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,757 for a studio, $3,302 for one bedroom, $3,998 for two bedrooms, $5,107 for three bedrooms, and $5,294 for four bedrooms. The local HUD two-bedroom standard is $3,604, placing the modelled two-bedroom estimate 10.93% above it. HUD’s ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so neither it nor these modelled estimates should be represented as measured rents for available units.
The 30% required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. At the current ZIP asking-rent index, it produces required annual income of $159,920; compared with the ZCTA median household income of $158,921, the index calculation equals 30.19% of that median. ACS burden data add a different occupied-renter perspective: 1,280 of 4,161 renter households, or 30.76%, reported spending at least the threshold share on rent. That burden statistic cannot prove affordability or burden for a particular unit or household. The ZCTA contains 16,546 housing units, including 14,020 single-family units and 277 large multifamily units. There were 203 vacant units for rent, a 6.47% overall vacancy rate, and a 26.89% renter share; none alone establishes current availability at a given property.
Resale evidence presents a separate for-sale-market signal. The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation reports a $1,994,549 median sold price, 18.72% above its year-earlier level. It recorded 88 homes sold and a median marketing time of 13 days. Reported inventory was 13 homes, while months of supply stood at 0.4. Sale-to-list results were also strong in this resale universe: the average sale-to-list ratio was 129.96%, and 82.64% of sold homes closed above list price. These are ZIP for-sale transactions and liquidity indicators, not rental transactions, rent comps, or property-level operating economics.
The cross-source tension is clear rather than resolvable from one metric. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals 2.41%, a cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Rapid asking-rent growth, the longer upward rent path, and brisk resale conditions point in the same directional reading of recent market strength. Yet the income screen sits near the ZCTA median, occupied-renter burden remains material, and the historical drawdown shows that the rent index has not moved in one direction continuously. Resale activity therefore confirms market velocity but does not settle the rent affordability or rent-stability question.
Several limits should govern any property-specific interpretation. ZORI is a blended ZIP index, ACS is a five-year survey with a different population and utility treatment, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is a resale observation. A concrete review should verify the actual bedroom count, current asking terms, included utilities, lease structure, condition, marketed availability, and comparable live listings for the exact property. On the resale side, confirm the property’s own sale history, list-price changes, final sale terms, and whether the observed ZIP transaction mix resembles the property under review. What does the specific unit’s current evidence show once those separate universes are kept distinct?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI reached $3,998 after a 22.85% same-month gain. That rate exceeds the annualized three-year and five-year changes, confirming an upward longer path while signaling a recent acceleration. Historical volatility and a meaningful maximum drawdown argue against treating the current index as a guaranteed persistent level.","title":"Fast asking-rent acceleration, but uneven historical stability"},{"body":"The matched ACS ZCTA median gross rent is $2,999, below the Zillow ZIP asking-rent index. This is a source-universe difference, not necessarily a pricing discrepancy: ACS covers occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI reflects typical observed asking rent blended across rental types.","title":"Occupied-home survey rent is lower than the asking-rent index"},{"body":"A thirty-percent screen applied to ZIP ZORI requires $159,920 in annual income, nearly equal to the ZCTA median household income of $158,921. Meanwhile, 30.76% of surveyed renter households were burdened at or above that threshold. Neither statistic determines affordability for any particular renter or listing.","title":"Affordability arithmetic is close to the ZCTA income benchmark"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation shows a high median sold price, short marketing time, limited months of supply, and frequent sales above list price. Those signals support a brisk for-sale market reading. They do not measure rental demand, operating expenses, tenant terms, or the economics of an individual rental property.","title":"Resale liquidity is strong but remains a separate market"}],"risks":["The Zillow figure is a blended ZIP asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the rent, concessions, utility treatment, condition, or availability of a particular property.","ACS median gross rent, income, renter burden, and housing stock are survey estimates for the matched ZCTA and should not be treated as current lease-level observations or household-specific outcomes.","The bedroom figures are modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with the HUD ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, and HUD standards are administrative benchmarks rather than asking-rent evidence.","Redfin’s rolling resale data describe homes sold and listed in the ZIP. Strong sale-to-list outcomes or short marketing periods do not establish rental performance, tenant demand, or future price movement."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures cover different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Existing leases, timing, utilities, and surveyed occupied units can all differ from current advertised asking-rent conditions.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent figure higher than the ACS gross-rent figure?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall Zillow ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD Fair Market Rent or Small Area Fair Market Rent is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Neither the HUD values nor the scaled results are direct measurements of current bedroom-specific asking rents.","q":"Are the bedroom rent estimates observed rents for available apartments?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply divides annualized ZIP asking rent by thirty percent to show a standardized income comparison. It is arithmetic, not financial advice, a tenant-screening policy, or an applicant qualification rule. Household circumstances, other expenses, utilities, lease terms, and actual rents can differ substantially from the ZIP-level index calculation.","q":"Does the thirty-percent income screen mean a renter must earn that amount?"},{"a":"The Redfin block provides direct ZIP for-sale evidence on sale prices, transaction volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It helps identify whether the resale market was moving briskly during the observation period. It cannot serve as rental comparable evidence, establish property operating income, or convert the rent-to-price screen into a return measure.","q":"What does the resale data add to the rental interpretation?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":2840.645541},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":2827.594935},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":2883.264316},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":2936.671988},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":2962.335198},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":2925.019119},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":2900.460747},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":2887.684846},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":2864.547003},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":2870.500376},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":2791.979548},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":2787.294634},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":2797.774475},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":2805.819995},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":2793.181675},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":2787.799829},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":2769.069452},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":2744.943026},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":2716.637444},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":2640.715877},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2646.090421},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2663.246494},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2739.674033},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2754.136621},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2754.452792},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2747.747263},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2813.297642},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2817.012549},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2865.736483},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2838.480993},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2840.651319},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2866.816739},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2888.514863},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2906.742041},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2906.481638},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2943.164474},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2960.884983},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2990.308851},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2915.632477},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2929.254807},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2932.413619},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":3009.329015},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":3023.028936},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":3060.154215},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":3044.77375},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":3084.364192},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":3056.414995},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":3020.277547},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":3006.81618},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2995.295188},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":3044.991774},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":3065.19224},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":3063.106358},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":3043.879711},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":3055.208524},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":3073.581059},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":3109.858631},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":3070.27346},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":3082.855984},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":3062.638611},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":3102.48033},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":3119.851556},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":3131.854378},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":3091.054739},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":3064.033},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":3073.404507},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":3100.904501},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":3173.034488},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":3225.574512},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":3313.130131},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":3411.332359},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":3432.199432},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":3367.727407},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":3254.575873},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":3267.60526},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":3325.316304},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":3392.381503},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":3432.804857},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":3462.822944},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":3453.640606},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":3472.052512},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":3499.265669},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":3517.292172},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":3624.647763},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":3775.884606},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":3998.37963}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":86,"firstPeriod":"2019-04-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":87,"coverageRatio":0.9885057471264368,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":3254.575873,"endRent":3998.37963,"change":0.2285409177799802,"cagr":0.2285409177799802},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2995.295188,"endRent":3998.37963,"change":0.3348866736135523,"cagr":0.10106966847397292},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2747.747263,"endRent":3998.37963,"change":0.4551482532038098,"cagr":0.07790738765912897}},"maxDrawdown":-0.10856952353573601,"annualizedVolatility":0.05131004819195528,"consecutiveReturnCount":84}}