At the current endpoint, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI places 94123 at $4,858 per month, following a 26.7% exact same-month one-year rise. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-level survey or a bedroom-specific quote. The three-year exact same-month annualized change is 11.8%, while the five-year exact same-month annualized change is 9.6%. The latest increase therefore confirms the longer upward path and is materially faster than either longer-window measurement; it does not represent a break below that path. These are backward-looking rent measurements, however, not a forecast, investment recommendation, or assertion about the rent of any particular available home.
The history is complete across 122 monthly observations, supporting a continuous view of the ZIP index rather than an inference from isolated dates. Annualized monthly-return variability is 3.6%, which means a single current ZORI reading deserves moderate caution even though the long-run direction has been positive: asking-rent movements have not been perfectly smooth. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown reached 12.7%, showing that prior declines were meaningful before the current acceleration. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 4th for momentum, 2,292nd for stability, and 540th for the balanced measure; lower ranks are stronger. Those labels summarize past measurements only, and the sharp contrast between momentum and stability reinforces the need not to overread one rent snapshot.
The matched Census ZCTA supplies a different evidence universe. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, even though the five-digit label matches the Zillow market identifier here. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, occupied renter homes had median gross rent of $3,289, which includes selected utilities and is 1.48 times lower than the current Zillow asking-rent index. ACS median household income was $218,603. Applying the 30% required-income screen to current annualized ZORI produces $194,320; that arithmetic screen is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. The corresponding asking-rent-to-income screen is 26.7%. Among surveyed renter households, 2,356, or 26.9%, reported spending at least 30% of income on rent, a population statistic that cannot establish the burden for a particular unit or household.
The bedroom figures should be read as modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces estimated monthly amounts of $3,350 for a studio, $4,013 for one bedroom, $4,858 for two bedrooms, $6,206 for three bedrooms, and $6,432 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; the local HUD two-bedroom standard is $3,604. The model therefore uses the HUD bedroom relationship to distribute a blended asking-rent index across unit sizes. It does not show that listings at each bedroom count transact, advertise, include utilities, or are available at those modelled amounts.
Housing-stock measures add a separate view of availability and tenure. The ZCTA counted 15,129 housing units, with a 16.7% vacancy rate. Of the vacant stock, 362 units were classified as for rent and 611 as seasonal, so the overall vacancy figure should not be treated as a direct count of immediately rentable homes. Renters occupied a 69.6% share of occupied homes, making renter occupancy the dominant tenure category in the survey area. These ACS counts describe surveyed housing status over the five-year period, not live listings, lease concessions, building condition, or the vacancy status of a specific address. They consequently provide background for the rent and burden screens but do not resolve current unit-level supply.
For wider context only, the San Francisco city context shows a 39.6% renter burden share at or above the 30% threshold, San Francisco County context has a $3,604 two-bedroom HUD standard, and the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA metro context reports a $3,301 asking-rent index. Each is a city, county, or metro comparison rather than a substitute for ZIP evidence. The ZIP’s current asking-rent index exceeds the metro context figure, while its surveyed burden share is below the city-context share. That combination is compatible with the ZIP’s substantially higher ACS median household income, but it does not identify who occupies a given rental, what income a prospective renter has, or why these geographic measures differ.
Redfin provides direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence, not rental transactions or rental comparables. In that for-sale universe, median sold price was $3,319,250, up 6.8% year over year; 73 homes sold with median marketing time of 13 days. Redfin recorded 97 active listings and reported inventory of 14 homes, alongside 0.6 months of supply. Sale-to-list signals were strong: the average sale-to-list ratio was 114.4%, and 71.9% of sold homes went above list. The annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is a 1.76% cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return. The resale evidence challenges a rent-only reading: rapid asking-rent growth coexists with a very high resale price base and tight reported resale supply.
Several limits remain material. Zillow is an asking-rent index, ACS is a multiyear survey of occupied renter homes with selected utilities, HUD is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, and Redfin describes completed ZIP resale activity. None directly measures the achievable rent, expense structure, lease-up pace, condition, or legal status of an individual property. A property-level review would need to verify bedroom count, lease term, utility treatment, asking and executed comparable rents, building condition, vacancy timing, list-price history, sale status, and the correspondence between the delivery address and the ZCTA-based evidence. The central unresolved question is whether a specific unit’s observed terms actually resemble the blended ZIP rent index and the modelled HUD-scaled bedroom estimate.
","findings":[{"body":"Current ZIP ZORI is $4,858 and the exact same-month one-year change is 26.7%, well above the 11.8% three-year and 9.6% five-year annualized changes. The direction remains consistent with the longer historical path, but the recent pace is unusually faster. Historical measures are backward-looking and do not establish future rent growth.","title":"Rent acceleration exceeds the longer history"},{"body":"The history has complete monthly coverage, yet annualized monthly-return variability of 3.6% and a prior 12.7% maximum drawdown show that the index has experienced meaningful movement. Strong momentum does not equal strong stability: the momentum discovery rank is 4th, while the stability rank is 2,292nd among history-eligible ZIPs.","title":"A current asking-rent reading has limited precision"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent of $3,289 reflects occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is a blended current asking-rent index. HUD’s bedroom-specific standard supports a modelled bedroom ladder, but it is an administrative FMR/SAFMR benchmark rather than an observed asking-rent series.","title":"Survey rent, asking rent, and HUD standards answer different questions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale data show high sold prices, short marketing time, low months of supply, and frequent above-list sales. Those are for-sale liquidity signals, not rental transactions. The 1.76% annualized-rent-to-sold-price screen is useful only for cross-source comparison and cannot represent operating income, expenses, financing, or return.","title":"Resale conditions are strong but are not rental economics"}],"risks":["The ZORI figure is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the rent, utility treatment, condition, lease term, or availability of a particular studio, apartment, condominium, or house.","Historical momentum is strong, but measured variability and the prior maximum drawdown show that rents have moved unevenly. A single current reading should not be treated as a stable baseline or projected forward.","ACS burden, income, tenure, and vacancy figures come from a matched ZCTA five-year survey. They describe surveyed households and housing status, not current applicant finances, live vacancies, or a delivery ZIP boundary.","Redfin resale indicators concern completed for-sale activity during a rolling three-month period. High sale-to-list results and limited supply do not prove rental demand, unit-level pricing power, expenses, or property-level economics."],"qa":[{"a":"The two values come from different universes and periods. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The gap does not prove that every current listing is above every occupied household’s rent.","q":"Why does Zillow rent exceed the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the blended ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not a collection of local asking rents. The estimates should therefore be checked against actual comparable listings and executed leases where available.","q":"Are the bedroom rents observed market rents?"},{"a":"It is an arithmetic affordability screen: annualized current ZORI divided by 30% produces the income amount shown. It is not financial advice, an applicant qualification standard, or a statement that a household can or cannot afford a particular rental. Actual household budgets, utilities, lease terms, and non-rent obligations are outside this calculation.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"It is simply annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median ZIP sold price, combining two distinct sources for a high-level screen. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or valuation conclusion. Individual property economics require verified rent, expenses, taxes, insurance, maintenance, financing, and transaction-specific evidence.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-to-price screening ratio be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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