The current signal is an elevated ZIP-level asking-rent reading rather than a household survey result: Zillow ZORI for 94133 is $4,598 per month, up 22.6% from the same month a year earlier. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it does not describe every signed lease or a particular unit. The five-digit Zillow ZIP market label has a Census ZCTA match, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For wider context only, San Francisco city context and San Francisco County context each show $4,401, while the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA metro context is $3,301. The ZIP therefore stands above all three broader asking-rent context readings.
The recent increase confirms, rather than breaks from, a longer upward asking-rent path. Exact same-month annualized changes were 22.6% over one year, 9.9% over three years, and 8.5% over five years, making the latest movement much faster than the longer-period pace. That acceleration is backward-looking, not a forecast. Monthly rent changes annualized to 4.3% variability across the history, a level consistent with the supplied high-variability classification. Separately, the record’s deepest historical decline from a prior peak was 18.1%, showing that the positive multiyear path did not move smoothly. Coverage is complete across 103 observations. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 13 for momentum, 2,700 for stability, and 794 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are stronger. Those contrasts mean the current figure has strong recent momentum behind it but should not be treated as a stable, low-noise snapshot.
The bedroom sequence is a modelled translation of the ZIP ZORI, not a set of measured bedroom rents. Scaling the ZIP asking-rent index with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $3,170 for a studio, $3,798 for one bedroom, $4,598 for two bedrooms, $5,874 for three bedrooms, and $6,088 for four bedrooms. The local HUD FY2026 FMR/SAFMR ladder runs from $2,485 for a studio to $4,772 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent observation. It provides the relative sizing pattern used in this model, while Zillow supplies the ZIP-level asking-rent base; neither source demonstrates what any available unit in a bedroom category is actually listed or leased for.
The ACS matched ZCTA offers a different and much lower-looking rental universe. Its five-year survey of occupied renter homes reports median gross rent of $1,901 with a $169 margin of error, and gross rent includes selected utilities. The current Zillow asking-rent index is 2.42 times that survey median, a comparison that highlights differing populations, timing, and rent definitions rather than an error in either source. Applying a 30% rent-to-income screen to the current asking-rent index produces required annual income of $183,920. That is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA’s reported median household income is $87,191 with a $10,975 margin of error; annualized current asking rent equals 63.3% of that income measure. Separately, 39.8% of surveyed renter households reported spending at least 30% of income on rent. That burden statistic cannot establish the affordability or payment experience of a particular vacant unit.
Survey housing composition adds another constraint to interpretation. The ZCTA contains 15,594 housing units, and renters occupy 83.5% of occupied homes, while 6,059 units are in large multifamily structures. There are 2,941 vacant units, yielding an 18.9% vacancy rate, including 961 units classified as vacant for rent. These are ACS category counts and do not establish current listing availability, unit condition, pricing, or landlord terms. The same ZCTA also reports vacant seasonal homes, so vacant housing is not synonymous with rental supply. For perspective only, the San Francisco city context vacancy rate is 12.2%, below the ZIP’s survey rate. The difference may matter when reading the current rent index, but it does not prove that a particular renter has more choices or that any individual unit will remain available.
The direct rolling three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation describes a for-sale market, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $1,742,106, up 30.0% year over year, with 44 homes sold and a median 16 days on market. It recorded 73 active listings, inventory of 24 homes, and 1.6 months of supply. Months of supply compares available resale inventory with the recent sales pace; this reading indicates limited resale supply over that observation window, not apartment vacancy or rental turnover. Sale-to-list evidence was also strong: average sale-to-list reached 104.61%, 51.21% of sales closed above list, and 41.96% went off market within two weeks. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals 3.17%, solely a cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Resale prices rose faster than the asking-rent index, which challenges a simplistic reading that recent rent strength alone defines the ZIP’s market position.
Viewed together, the evidence contains a meaningful tension rather than one unified rent answer. Zillow indicates a fast-rising current asking-rent index; its complete history supports a longer positive trajectory but also documents meaningful variation and a prior drawdown. ACS describes occupied renter households at a lower gross-rent level, with material reported rent burden and a sizable survey vacancy count. Redfin shows active resale liquidity and limited months of supply in a distinct for-sale universe. The city, county, and metro figures are only broader contextual comparators, not substitutes for direct ZIP observations. None of these sources establishes a likely lease rate, sales outcome, operating cost, or financial result for a specific property.
Property-level review would need to reconcile the source differences before using these figures for a concrete decision. Confirm the actual bedroom count, asking rent, included utilities, lease duration, concessions, availability date, and whether a listing is genuinely comparable with the ZORI blend. For a resale comparison, check the property’s condition, sale date, list history, transaction type, and whether the apparent comparable is represented in the rolling Redfin observation. For household screening, use verified income and contractual housing costs rather than the area’s survey median or burden share. Finally, distinguish an address’s USPS delivery ZIP from the ZCTA-based ACS geography, because geographic matching alone does not make the survey and market-index populations identical.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s ZIP-level asking-rent index is $4,598, exceeding the San Francisco city and county context readings near $4,401 and the metro context reading of $3,301. The ZIP’s year-over-year increase of 22.6% is also much faster than its longer same-month annualized growth measures. This is a current asking-rent signal, not a lease survey, household budget result, or direct measurement of every unit.","title":"Current asking rent is above broader context"},{"body":"The complete 103-observation Zillow history shows positive one-, three-, and five-year same-month growth, with the latest year accelerating materially. At the same time, annualized monthly-return variability is 4.3% and the prior maximum drawdown reached 18.1%. The momentum discovery rank is very strong, whereas the stability rank is weak, so historical trend strength should be read alongside uneven path risk.","title":"Momentum is strong, but the history is not low-volatility"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent of $1,901 represents occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities, while Zillow ZORI represents a blended asking-rent index. The resulting gap is substantial. The 30% arithmetic screen produces $183,920 of annual income for the current ZORI, compared with reported median household income of $87,191. Neither calculation identifies whether a particular household or unit is affordable.","title":"Survey affordability and asking rent describe different populations"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling ZIP resale data show a $1.74 million median sold price, short marketing time, limited months of supply, and above-list sale signals. Those facts describe for-sale transactions and inventory, not rental leasing. The 3.17% annualized-rent-to-sale-price screen is only a cross-source ratio. Faster sale-price appreciation than asking-rent appreciation creates a useful tension against any rent-only interpretation.","title":"Resale evidence is liquid but distinct from rent evidence"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, so a specific listing may differ because of bedroom count, utilities, lease terms, condition, concessions, timing, or rental type.","ACS estimates come from a five-year survey of occupied homes in a statistical ZCTA, include margins of error, and do not directly represent current vacancies or active asking rents.","The Redfin observation covers a rolling resale period and a limited number of sales; its price, marketing, and list-to-sale signals cannot be used as rental transaction evidence.","Modelled bedroom estimates inherit both the ZIP ZORI base and HUD ladder proportions, while the rent-to-price screen excludes financing, operating costs, taxes, maintenance, and property-specific characteristics."],"qa":[{"a":"They are different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. Differences in timing, household occupancy, utility treatment, and geography mean the measures should be compared for context, not treated as interchangeable rental quotes.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent index so much higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall Zillow ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking-rent evidence. The figures are useful for showing the model’s internal bedroom pattern, but they do not measure current advertised or signed rents for a specific bedroom type.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for studios through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"In Redfin’s direct rolling ZIP resale observation, months of supply relates available for-sale inventory to the recent pace of sales. A 1.6-month reading indicates limited resale inventory relative to that period’s sales pace. It should not be interpreted as apartment vacancy, rental availability, a forecast of sale prices, or evidence about how quickly a particular rental listing will lease.","q":"What does 1.6 months of resale supply mean here?"},{"a":"For a rental, verify the live asking rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease length, concessions, availability, and comparable listing details. For a resale property, verify recent comparable sales, condition, list history, transaction type, and the relation of the address to the ZIP and ZCTA geographies. Use actual contractual costs and verified household circumstances rather than applying area averages to a specific property.","q":"What should be checked for an individual rental or resale property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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