A sharp split defines 94601 at the June 2026 endpoint: Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation shows a $664,850 median sold price, up 11.46% year over year, while Zillow’s ZIP asking-rent index is $2,103, up only 0.93%. Annualizing that asking-rent index and dividing it by the resale median produces a 3.80% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or measure of a specific home’s economics. The measured tension is therefore resale price momentum that is much stronger than the current asking-rent change, not evidence that either market will continue in the same direction.
Rent history is positive but uneven in pace. The one-year exact same-month annualized change was 0.93%, the three-year measure was 0.67%, and the five-year measure was 1.44%. Recent direction therefore confirms a longer positive rent path, and it modestly exceeds the three-year pace, but it does not match the stronger five-year average. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.95% calls for moderate caution when using one current rent snapshot as a definitive signal. Separately, the maximum drawdown reached 3.97%, documenting a historical decline from a prior peak. Coverage is 100% across 88 observations and 87 consecutive monthly returns. Transparent national history-eligible ZIP discovery ranks were 2,096 for momentum, 1,523 for stability, and 2,140 for the balanced measure; lower ranks place higher and these are backward-looking discovery tools, not forecasts.
Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a median lease or a property-specific quoted rent. At $2,103, the ZIP index sits below the $2,614 Oakland city-context rent, the $2,895 Alameda County-context rent, and the $3,301 San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley metro-context rent. Those city, county, and metro figures are wider geographic context only and should not be substituted for ZIP evidence. The gap reinforces that 94601’s current index occupies a different rent level from its surrounding comparison areas, but it does not identify the rent for any particular bedroom count, building type, lease term, or available unit.
The five-digit label 94601 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the match for a Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the matched ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,721 with a $60 margin of error. ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, making it a different evidence universe from Zillow’s current asking-rent index. Zillow’s index is 22.2% above that survey median, a difference consistent with their differing populations, timing, and rent definitions rather than a direct contradiction. The same ACS ZCTA reports median household income of $72,359, an area measure that should not be read as the income of a prospective renter or owner.
The bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces monthly modelled estimates of $1,450 for a studio, $1,737 for one bedroom, $2,103 for two bedrooms, $2,687 for three bedrooms, and $2,785 for four bedrooms. The FY2026 HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $3,604, so the ZIP ZORI is 58.4% of that administrative standard. HUD FMR/SAFMR is bedroom-specific and useful for its local relative ladder, but it is an administrative standard, not an asking-rent observation. The model is consequently a sizing device around the ZIP rent index, not evidence of achieved rent by bedroom.
A simple 30% required-income screen converts the current asking-rent index into $84,120 of annual income, compared with the ACS ZCTA median household income of $72,359; the arithmetic index-to-income result is 34.9%. This is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. ACS reports 10,647 renter-occupied households, of which 6,093, or 57.2%, had gross-rent burdens of 30% or more. Housing stock totals 17,631 units, and the ACS vacancy rate is 5.1%, including 504 units classified as vacant for rent. These aggregate counts and shares describe area conditions, not whether a particular advertised unit is vacant, affordable, utility-inclusive, or available on stated terms.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence adds a liquidity signal that challenges the restrained rent change. It recorded 44 homes sold, a median 33 days on market, 123 active listings, and inventory of 53 homes. Months of supply stood at 3.6. Sale-to-list results were also strong: the average sale-to-list ratio was 106.99%, and 60.52% of sales closed above list price; 25.9% went off market within two weeks. Redfin describes the for-sale market rather than rental transactions, so these are neither rental comps nor evidence of landlord revenue. Still, the resale combination of price growth, short marketing time, limited supply, and above-list outcomes contrasts with the ZIP’s modest current asking-rent growth and prevents the screening ratio from being interpreted in isolation.
The evidence has separate clocks and definitions: Zillow measures a current blended asking-rent index, ACS measures surveyed occupied households, HUD supplies administrative bedroom standards, and Redfin tracks resale activity. Neither the ACS burden share nor the vacancy classification establishes conditions at an individual address, and historical rent measurements do not establish future outcomes. Property-level review should verify the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease duration, concessions, unit availability, listing history, and the relevance of any comparable sale. It should also distinguish a sale’s transaction date and list price from the broader rolling resale statistics. The central unresolved question is whether a specific unit’s terms align with the ZIP’s current rent index despite the markedly firmer resale signals.
","findings":[{"body":"Redfin’s ZIP resale data show a substantially stronger year-over-year median sold-price change than Zillow’s current asking-rent change. That divergence matters because the annualized-rent-to-sale-price figure is only a cross-source screen. It does not capture expenses, property condition, financing, concessions, lease terms, or the economics of a particular home.","title":"Resale strength exceeds current rent momentum"},{"body":"The one-year, three-year, and five-year same-month rent measures are all positive, yet the one-year pace remains below the five-year average. Monthly variability and the recorded drawdown show that the observed path has not been uniform. Complete history coverage improves confidence in the measurement record, but does not turn it into a forecast.","title":"History supports growth, but not a straight-line reading"},{"body":"ACS gross rent is a five-year survey metric for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI tracks a blended current asking-rent index. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The modelled bedroom ladder uses HUD only to scale ZORI and should never be read as observed rents for studio through four-bedroom units.","title":"Survey rent, asking rent, and HUD standards answer different questions"},{"body":"The ACS ZCTA reports a renter-majority occupancy base, a meaningful share of renter households paying at least 30% of income toward gross rent, and units classified as vacant for rent. Those are area-level statistics. They cannot establish whether a particular property is vacant, its actual utility treatment, its lease terms, or an applicant’s affordability.","title":"Area burden and vacancy require unit-level verification"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, so it cannot directly establish the rent, concession package, utilities, lease term, bedroom mix, or availability of any individual dwelling.","The ACS ZCTA is a statistical approximation rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its five-year survey estimates describe occupied households over a different period than current asking rents.","The annualized rent-to-sale-price screening ratio omits operating expenses, transaction costs, financing, taxes, insurance, repairs, and property-specific characteristics, so it cannot characterize net economics.","Redfin resale evidence is a rolling three-month for-sale observation; even strong sale-to-list outcomes and limited supply do not demonstrate rental demand, lease pricing, or future rent changes."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different timing, sampled households, rent definitions, and geography construction mean the figures should be compared for context, not treated as interchangeable observations.","q":"Why does the Zillow asking-rent figure differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP Zillow asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking-rent evidence. The resulting estimates help show relative bedroom sizing, but they do not verify any available unit’s rent or achieved lease price.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures actual rents observed in 94601?"},{"a":"It annualizes the current ZIP asking-rent index and divides that amount by 30%, producing an arithmetic income threshold for comparison with the area’s median household income. It is not financial advice, an affordability determination, or an applicant qualification policy. Actual affordability depends on income, household composition, utilities, debt, subsidies, lease terms, and the specific unit.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"Redfin provides direct ZIP for-sale evidence about sold prices, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes during its rolling three-month observation period. It can highlight whether resale conditions align with or conflict with rent signals. It should not be used as rental transaction evidence, a valuation for a specific property, or proof of future rent performance.","q":"How should the Redfin resale figures be used alongside rent evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + 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