Resale evidence creates the central tension in this ZIP: Zillow ZORI was $2,635 in June 2026, while the direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation reported a $609,862 median sold price, up 9.6% year over year. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a record of completed leases. Redfin measures for-sale transactions and listings, not rental transactions. The two series can therefore be read together as a cross-market screen, but they do not describe the same homes, timing, contract terms, or market universe.
The resale record shows 63 homes sold with a 37-day median marketing time. Inventory stood at 83 homes and months of supply at 4.0, while the average sale-to-list ratio was 100.3% and 46.0% of sales closed above list. Those are direct ZIP resale liquidity and pricing signals, rather than rental evidence. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price produces a 5.18% cross-source screening ratio only; it does not measure property income, operating costs, or a net outcome. The firm resale-price change and near-list sale signal contrast with the need to treat a single asking-rent reading cautiously because the rent history has been uneven.
Backward-looking Zillow history shows that the recent rent advance was faster than the longer path: exact same-month change was 8.5% over one year, 2.3% over three years, and 1.2% over five years. The positive direction is consistent across those windows, but the latest pace breaks from the more modest longer-run rate. Monthly ZORI changes annualize to 4.1% variability, which limits confidence that one current index reading represents a stable near-term level. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown was 11.8%, a material prior decline despite the current advance. Coverage is complete, and transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 603 for momentum, 2,647 for stability, and 1,514 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are measurements of the past, not forecasts or investment conclusions.
The five-digit 94607 label is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $2,014 median gross rent with a $162 margin of error for occupied renter homes, and that measure includes selected utilities. Current ZORI is 30.8% above that survey median, a source-scope difference rather than proof of an asking-rent premium for a particular unit. HUD's FY 2026 two-bedroom standard is $3,604, and the blended ZIP index equals 73.1% of that administrative benchmark. HUD FMR or SAFMR is bedroom-specific program administration, not asking rent.
The bedroom figures translate the ZIP-wide ZORI through the local HUD ladder and are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The resulting monthly ladder is $1,817 for a studio, $2,177 for one bedroom, $2,635 for two bedrooms, $3,366 for three bedrooms, and $3,489 for four bedrooms. It is useful for putting a blended asking-rent index into a bedroom structure, but it cannot establish what currently available units of any size are asking. Differences in utility treatment, unit condition, lease terms, and the mix of rental types remain outside this scaling exercise.
The 30% required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Annualizing the current index and applying that share produces $105,400 of required household income, compared with a ZCTA median household income of $94,863; the index-to-income calculation is 33.3%. Separately, ACS reports 3,984 of 9,402 renter households, or 42.4%, as spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. That survey burden result is an aggregate household measure with sampling uncertainty, not evidence that any applicant or any unit is unaffordable. Still, it makes the higher current asking-rent index and the slower long-run rent history an important decision tension.
Housing composition provides further context for that tension. The matched ZCTA has 1,663 vacant units and an 11.0% vacancy rate, while renters make up 69.9% of occupied homes. Its stock includes 7,561 large multifamily units and 3,625 single-family units, indicating that the aggregate housing base is not limited to one structure type. Vacancy is a broad ACS housing-status measure, not a real-time rental-availability count, and it cannot prove that a particular unit is available, appropriately priced, or comparable to the ZORI mix. Likewise, renter concentration does not identify any household's lease terms or payment capacity.
For wider context only, Oakland city-scope Zillow rent was about $2,614, Alameda County-scope rent was $2,895, and San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley metro-scope rent was $3,301; none substitutes for the ZIP index. The ZIP sits close to the city context but below the county and metro contexts, while its direct resale evidence shows a separate for-sale market with positive annual price movement. Remaining limits are substantial: ZORI is blended, ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey, HUD is administrative, and Redfin is a rolling resale observation. Concrete property-level checks are the address geography, current bedroom count, asking price, included utilities, lease term, unit condition, availability, and directly comparable recent sales. Does the specific property's evidence align with the index, survey, administrative ladder, and resale screen?
","findings":[{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation shows a rising median sold price, near-list average execution, and a meaningful share of sales above list. Those for-sale indicators provide a different signal from ZORI, whose history includes substantial prior drawdown and elevated monthly variability. The apparent tension is not a contradiction because resale transactions and asking-rent indexing are separate evidence universes.","title":"Resale signals are firmer than the rent series is stable"},{"body":"The one-year ZORI increase is materially above the three-year and five-year same-month annualized changes. That confirms an upward recent direction while breaking from the slower longer-run path. Complete historical coverage strengthens the measurement record, but variability and the prior maximum drawdown mean that the current asking-rent snapshot should not be treated as a stable or forward-looking rent level.","title":"Recent rent growth exceeds the longer historical pace"},{"body":"The required-income calculation applies 30% arithmetically to annualized ZIP ZORI and exceeds the matched ZCTA median household income. ACS separately reports a large share of renter households spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. Neither measure determines eligibility, affordability, or payment outcomes for a specific household because both are aggregate measures with distinct construction and timing.","title":"Affordability screens differ from household burden evidence"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom figures are derived by scaling the blended ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They provide a consistent modelled structure around the current index but do not measure observed asking rents for bedrooms. HUD standards are administrative benchmarks, while ACS gross rent includes selected utilities and reflects occupied renter homes rather than current listings.","title":"Bedroom values are a modelled ladder, not leasing comps"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI, ACS median gross rent, and HUD bedroom standards measure different populations, timing, and rent concepts, so apparent gaps cannot establish a premium, discount, or unit-level market condition.","Historical rent performance is backward-looking and categorized by high variability; a substantial prior drawdown and uneven monthly movement reduce confidence in interpreting one current index observation as stable.","Redfin's rolling three-month ZIP data concerns for-sale transactions and listings only. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price calculation is a cross-source screen and omits property-specific income, expenses, financing, and condition.","The Census ZCTA is statistical geography rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS estimates have survey uncertainty. Address-level geography, bedroom count, utility inclusion, and current availability require separate verification."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures are not interchangeable. ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference may reflect timing, tenant occupancy, unit mix, and utility treatment; it does not identify a current premium for any specific apartment.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI higher than the ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"The history shows a stronger one-year increase than the annualized changes measured across three and five years, so the latest movement is faster than the longer path. At the same time, elevated monthly variability and a meaningful historical drawdown show that the series has not moved smoothly. This is retrospective measurement, not a forecast of future rent changes.","q":"What does the rent history say about the current ZORI reading?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by the Redfin median sold price and is useful only as a cross-source comparison between an asking-rent index and a resale statistic. It is not a property-level income measure because it does not observe a unit's lease, expenses, vacancy experience, taxes, financing, condition, or actual transaction economics.","q":"How should the rent-to-sale-price screen be interpreted?"},{"a":"A property-level review should confirm that the address falls within the relevant geography, then compare its actual bedroom count, current asking price, included utilities, lease term, condition, availability date, and concessions with the modelled bedroom ladder. For a sale comparison, use directly comparable recent ZIP transactions rather than treating the ZIP median sold price as a valuation for one home.","q":"What evidence should be checked for a specific property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 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