As of the current Zillow ZORI reading, ZIP 94612 carries a typical observed asking-rent index of $2,798 per month, up 10.4% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is neither a lease-by-lease quote nor a bedroom-specific measurement. In a separate for-sale universe, Redfin's direct ZIP resale observation reports a $554,875 median sold price, 21.0% below a year earlier. That contrast—asking rents rising while the resale median fell—is the central cross-source tension, not evidence that either movement caused the other. The label is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and the matching Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not an area identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
Looking backward through the direct Zillow ZIP history, the one-year exact same-month annualized rent change is 10.4%, while the three-year measure is 1.2% and the five-year measure is 0.5%. Recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the much more subdued longer path. The series has 100% coverage, which supports continuity of the record, but continuity does not make the latest index a fixed market clearing price. Annualized volatility of monthly changes is 3.6%, placing this ZIP in the supplied high-variability category and reducing confidence that one current rent snapshot represents every listing. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 22.5%, showing that prior asking-rent declines have been materially larger than the longer-run average growth rate. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 784 for momentum, 2,351 for stability, and 1,500 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The matched ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey reports median gross rent of $1,960, making the current asking-rent index 42.8% higher. This is not a direct contradiction: ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI summarizes observed asking rents. The bedroom ladder should be read with the same separation in mind. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,929 for a studio, $2,311 for one bedroom, $2,798 for two bedrooms, $3,574 for three bedrooms, and $3,705 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The FY 2026 HUD two-bedroom standard of $3,604 is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; it supplies the scaling structure rather than a rental comparable.
Income and burden data make the source difference more consequential. Annualizing the asking-rent index produces $111,920 of required household income under a 30% screen. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $74,037, so the simplified annualized asking-rent screen equals 45.4% of that median income. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS survey, 10,140 renter-occupied households were counted, and 4,600 reported gross-rent burden at or above that threshold. The result describes surveyed occupied households over the ACS collection period; it does not establish the burden, income, lease terms, or utility treatment of a particular available apartment. It nevertheless places the current asking-rent reading beside an affordability measure that is materially different in population and timing.
The ZCTA housing profile is heavily renter-oriented, with 10,140 renter-occupied homes representing 91.4% of occupied homes. It also records 1,852 vacant homes, a 14.3% overall vacancy rate, including 996 classified as vacant for rent. The structure mix is concentrated in large multifamily buildings, which account for 10,227 units, compared with 616 single-family units. Those figures help describe the surveyed stock from which occupied and vacant categories were recorded, but they do not show unit condition, concessions, lease turnover, or whether any listed unit is practically available. Similarly, an aggregate vacant-for-rent count cannot prove vacancy at a specific building or establish that an advertised asking price will be accepted. ACS sampling and classification limits remain relevant to each of these stock measures.
Wider geography provides context but does not replace ZIP evidence: the Oakland city-context Zillow index is $2,614, the Alameda County context Zillow index is $2,895, and the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA metro-context Zillow index is $3,301; these are respectively city, county, and metro values rather than ZIP estimates. The ZIP asking-rent index sits above the Oakland city context while remaining below the county and metro context readings. The city evidence is therefore a comparison for Oakland as a whole, not a statement about conditions within 94612. The metro context also reports a 3.3% apartment vacancy rate, a sector-specific metro measure that should not be equated with the ZIP's all-housing ACS vacancy measure. Geographic scope, housing type, and source method limit direct comparisons even when the figures are useful for orientation.
Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence describes the for-sale market only, never rental transactions. It records 19 homes sold with a median marketing time of 46 days, alongside inventory of 20 homes and 3.3 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 99.2%, while 27.8% of sales closed above list price. Together with the lower year-over-year median sold price reported above, those resale signals show a for-sale market whose pricing and transaction indicators should remain separate from leasing evidence. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin's median sold price produces a 6.1% cross-source screening ratio. It is only a screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The declining resale median challenges any simple reading of the recent rent acceleration as a uniform property-market signal, while the rent history and burden screen prevent the resale data from being treated as a standalone affordability answer.
The packet supports an evidence-bounded comparison of ZIP asking rents, surveyed renter households, HUD standards, and direct resale activity; it cannot establish future rent, sale prices, vacancy, tenant demand, or property economics. A property-level assessment would need the actual bedroom count, current asking price, concessions, included utilities, lease duration, availability date, and whether the unit resembles the rental types represented in ZORI. For a sale, it would also require the specific transaction date, list-price history, condition, ownership constraints, and comparability of the property to Redfin's rolling ZIP resale set. HUD standards should be checked for the relevant program use rather than treated as market quotes. The unresolved property-level question is whether a specific unit's terms and physical characteristics align with any of these aggregate measures.
","findings":[{"body":"The one-year Zillow history measure shows a 10.4% increase, but the three-year and five-year annualized changes are only 1.2% and 0.5%. That divergence identifies a recent acceleration rather than a uniformly strong long-run rent path. The high-variability designation and prior drawdown mean the latest ZORI level should be treated as a current index reading, not a durable trajectory.","title":"Recent rent acceleration is not the longer-run pattern"},{"body":"Current ZIP ZORI is materially above the ACS ZCTA median gross-rent measure because the sources cover different populations and periods. The required-income arithmetic at the current asking-rent index exceeds the reported median household income, while a substantial share of surveyed renter households reported burden at or above the threshold. Neither result determines affordability for an individual household or apartment.","title":"Asking-rent and household affordability measures are far apart"},{"body":"The ZCTA survey shows a strongly renter-occupied housing base, a large multifamily concentration, and an overall vacancy rate above the metro apartment context measure. These figures identify the composition of surveyed housing stock, not the availability, condition, effective rent, or concession level of a particular listing. Vacant-for-rent units should not be interpreted as confirmed substitutes for a target apartment.","title":"Renter concentration and vacancy are aggregate stock signals"},{"body":"Redfin's rolling ZIP resale data show a lower median sold price than a year earlier even as Zillow's asking-rent index rose. Transaction timing, supply, and sale-to-list indicators are direct for-sale-market evidence, not rental comparables. The annualized-rent-to-sold-price calculation is useful only as a cross-source screening ratio and cannot measure property expenses, financing, operating income, or investment performance.","title":"Resale evidence challenges a simple rent-to-price reading"}],"risks":["Zillow asking-rent indexing, ACS gross-rent survey responses, and HUD bedroom standards use different populations, timing, and definitions, so their dollar values cannot be substituted for one another as direct rental comparables.","The high-variability history category and sizable historical drawdown indicate that a single current asking-rent index may not represent all lease terms, concessions, unit qualities, or near-term listing conditions.","Renter burden and vacancy are ZCTA-level survey measures with sampling and classification limits; they cannot prove financial stress, physical vacancy, effective rent, or availability for any specified unit.","Redfin resale indicators are based on direct rolling ZIP for-sale observations and should not be converted into rental-market evidence, a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield."],"qa":[{"a":"It represents a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for tracking asking-rent direction and broad price level, but it is not a record of every signed lease, a utility-inclusive rent measure, or a measured rent for a particular bedroom count.","q":"What does the current Zillow ZORI value represent?"},{"a":"The ACS figure comes from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI summarizes observed asking rents. The measures therefore differ in timing, household population, rent definition, and whether they describe occupied homes or market-facing listings. Their gap should be interpreted as a source-scope difference before drawing conclusions.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent lower than the current asking-rent index?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR values are administrative bedroom-specific standards, not asking-rent observations. The modelled ladder is an analytical approximation and should not replace unit-specific rental listings or signed lease evidence.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for studios through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP median sold price. It can flag the relationship between two separate source series, but it excludes expenses, taxes, debt, vacancy experience, maintenance, property condition, and transaction differences. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"What does the Redfin rent-price screening ratio mean?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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