June 2026’s Zillow ZIP ZORI is $4,135 in 95054. This five-digit label is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it supplies a current market signal rather than the rent of a specified home. The index gained 8.1% from the same month a year earlier, while annualized same-month change was 5.3% over three years and 6.0% over five years. Recent asking-rent direction thus accelerates beyond both longer paths. These are backward-looking observations through the stated endpoint, not a forecast or an investment conclusion.
The matched ACS five-year ZCTA provides a different affordability record: its $3,447 median gross rent is from occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. It is 20.0% below the current asking-rent index, a source-universe gap rather than proof that a new lease costs more or less. Annualizing ZORI creates a $165,400 income figure at the 30% screen; that calculation is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Against the ZCTA’s $207,895 median household income, the asking-rent-to-income measure is 23.9%. Yet 33.6% of renter households—2,258 of 6,716—reported gross-rent burden at or above that screen. Survey burden does not establish affordability, eligibility, or rent for any particular unit.
Bedroom translation needs a separate, explicitly modelled exercise. The local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Scaling the ZIP ZORI with that ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $3,108 for a studio, $3,538 for one bedroom, $4,135 for two bedrooms, $5,460 for three bedrooms, and $5,946 for four bedrooms. The local HUD two-bedroom standard is $4,430, 6.7% above the ZIP index. These outputs preserve the ladder’s proportions but are never measured bedroom rents; they do not observe unit condition, lease terms, utility treatment, amenities, or listing timing.
Survey housing stock describes the matched ZCTA rather than a live availability feed. Of 10,508 housing units, 5.2% were vacant, including 437 recorded as vacant for rent. Renters occupied 67.4% of occupied units. Structure categories list 4,732 units in large multifamily buildings and 4,310 single-family units, a composition measure rather than a rent comp. These counts help frame the renter base and stock mix, but ACS vacancy status cannot show whether a particular home is advertised, currently available, suitable for a household, or offered at ZORI.
For wider rent context, the Santa Clara city context is $3,890, the Santa Clara County context is $3,732, and the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA metro context is $3,729; each is below the direct ZIP index. The ZIP’s survey burden reading is also lower than the Santa Clara city context and Santa Clara County context readings, but those wider geographies cannot substitute for ZIP evidence. City, county, and metro figures are contextual scope only, not neighborhood comparables, individual rental quotes, or a basis to infer why the ZIP differs.
Complete direct-Zillow ZIP history supplies 78 monthly observations and 100% usable coverage. Its 3.0% annualized monthly-return variability means a current ZORI reading should carry some interval-style caution rather than be treated as a fixed local price. Separately, the 10.9% maximum drawdown documents a meaningful prior peak-to-trough decline, even though the current one-year rise outpaced the longer paths. In transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, momentum ranks 117, stability 1,627, and balanced performance 316; lower ranks are higher. These backward-looking measures organize discovery, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation belongs wholly to the for-sale market, not rental transactions. It reports a $1,555,149 median sold price, up 7.3% year over year, with 35 homes sold. Median marketing time was 13 days: in this sold-home sample, that indicates a typically sub-two-week marketing interval, a brisk resale liquidity signal rather than a claim about any listing. Reported inventory was 17 homes and months of supply 1.5. Sale-to-list averaged 101.87%; 61.82% sold above list, and 55.7% went off market within two weeks. The positive price movement and quick resale measures align directionally with the recent rent rise, but they neither validate rental transactions nor demonstrate causation.
One cross-source tension remains: price growth and short resale marketing time align with the rent/history signals, but they do not test the renter-income arithmetic. Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s median sold price gives a 3.19% screening ratio rather than a renter-affordability measure. This ratio only places an asking-rent index beside a resale median; it cannot establish property economics, operating costs, financial performance, or any expected outcome. A decision-useful property review would need the address and actual market geography, current bedroom-specific asking rent and lease term, utility inclusion, concessions, condition, advertised availability, and sale/list history. Those checks are especially necessary because ACS burden and vacancy measures, as well as ZIP-level resale statistics, do not describe a specific unit. They also require verification of listed fees.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 $4,135 ZIP ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. It is 20.0% above the matched ACS five-year ZCTA’s $3,447 median gross rent, which covers occupied renter homes and selected utilities. That gap separates current asking-rent and survey universes; it is not a negotiated-rent comparison or proof of pricing for a particular home.","title":"Current asking rent exceeds survey gross rent"},{"body":"Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces a modelled studio-to-four-bedroom range from $3,108 to $5,946. The procedure uses a bedroom-specific administrative standard and preserves its local proportions. It does not measure observed rents by bedroom, and it cannot capture building quality, utilities, lease terms, concessions, or the timing of a specific listing.","title":"Bedroom view is modelled rather than measured"},{"body":"The direct Zillow history shows an 8.1% same-month one-year gain, exceeding the 5.3% three-year and 6.0% five-year annualized changes. That acceleration is tempered by a prior 10.9% maximum drawdown and a substantially weaker stability discovery rank than momentum rank. The information identifies historical pattern and confidence limits, not future rent outcomes.","title":"History shows acceleration with a meaningful confidence limit"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale data show fast marketing and sale-to-list strength alongside a year-over-year rise in median sold price. These are direct for-sale observations, not rental comps. Their direction is consistent with recent asking-rent momentum, yet the cross-source rent-to-price screen cannot provide property-level income, expenses, resale results, or a conclusion about a specific asset.","title":"Resale liquidity is strong but remains a separate market"}],"risks":["Zillow’s blended asking-rent index and ACS gross-rent survey describe different populations, utility treatment, and timing. Treating their gap as a unit-level discount or premium would overstate what either source observes.","HUD-based bedroom figures inherit the administrative ladder’s ratios. They cannot show actual bedroom-specific asking rents, lease concessions, condition differences, or which units are open at the time a reader checks.","Recent rent acceleration follows a series that also recorded a material drawdown and measurable variability. Complete historical coverage improves continuity, but it does not eliminate revision, aggregation, or future-path uncertainty.","Fast Redfin marketing, reported supply, and sale-to-list strength apply to resale observations only. They cannot establish rental liquidity, property operating costs, or the outcome for a specific home."],"qa":[{"a":"95054 is the five-digit Zillow ZIP market identifier and has a matched Census ZCTA for the ACS record. The ZCTA is a Census statistical area, not a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow and history describe direct ZIP asking-rent observations, whereas ACS housing, gross rent, income, vacancy, and burden statistics use the matched ZCTA survey universe.","q":"Why does the report use both ZIP and ZCTA wording?"},{"a":"No. The figure simply annualizes the ZIP ZORI and divides it by 30%. It is a mechanical screen used to compare a current asking-rent index with reported income; it does not account for household composition, debts, utility arrangements, assistance, lease terms, or a landlord’s actual qualification policy.","q":"Is the required-income figure a tenant qualification threshold?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling ZORI with local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom proportions. HUD’s standard is administrative and bedroom-specific, while ZORI is blended asking rent. The estimates therefore cannot replace current unit-level listings, leases, or bedroom-specific transaction data.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for each unit size?"},{"a":"No. Redfin contributes a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation about homes sold, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It cannot be used as a rental comp. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a measure of property performance.","q":"Does the Redfin sale evidence indicate rental market performance?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":3293.273184},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":3336.659345},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":3343.797545},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":3305.150942},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":3234.535253},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":3179.815688},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":3166.792011},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":3107.371776},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":3107.965571},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":3075.572899},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":3081.734598},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":3017.871306},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2977.962779},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2982.206814},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":3032.204217},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":3060.861314},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":3089.174419},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":3090.576746},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":3146.383255},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":3191.891858},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":3217.391658},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":3228.797075},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":3233.789647},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":3263.434811},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":3297.912749},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":3308.212279},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":3299.17451},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":3341.631195},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":3398.970992},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":3481.912758},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":3480.360787},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":3496.504209},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":3497.627111},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":3531.385439},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":3557.461407},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":3606.093486},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":3603.998466},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":3589.525088},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":3558.04756},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":3555.463836},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":3546.054068},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":3543.416279},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":3551.659574},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":3552.388653},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":3574.741501},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":3569.244903},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":3598.065701},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":3593.584101},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":3606.39292},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":3599.361221},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":3601.923671},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":3606.404709},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":3635.643791},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":3665.073122},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":3685.878812},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":3685.531693},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":3706.600265},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":3735.05745},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":3734.848404},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":3740.671104},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":3747.931618},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":3798.798015},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":3831.16516},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":3840.217162},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":3805.205416},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":3825.414002},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":3836.374104},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":3865.650633},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":3873.485519},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":3884.942134},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":3905.686258},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":3934.486977},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":3965.555352},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":3977.385446},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":4005.524783},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":4045.820651},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":4111.874448},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":4134.902315}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":78,"firstPeriod":"2020-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":78,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":3825.414002,"endRent":4134.902315,"change":0.08090322062871991,"cagr":0.08090322062871991},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":3543.416279,"endRent":4134.902315,"change":0.16692535943502684,"cagr":0.052804403218579266},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":3090.576746,"endRent":4134.902315,"change":0.3379063698552789,"cagr":0.05994942668808689}},"maxDrawdown":-0.10940697248463349,"annualizedVolatility":0.029993204141279484,"consecutiveReturnCount":77}}