At June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 95376 was $2,491 per month, up 2.7% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a census rent or a bedroom-specific quote. The matched ACS 2024 five-year Census ZCTA reported median gross rent of $2,171, making the asking-rent index 14.7% higher; ACS gross rent covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For wider context only, the Tracy city rent context was $2,717, while the San Joaquin County context and Stockton, CA metro context were each $2,456; none is a substitute for the ZIP measure.
The longer Zillow history presents a measured upward path with modest interruptions, not a forecast. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 2.7% over one year, 2.5% over three years, and 3.0% over five years. The recent gain therefore confirms, rather than breaks from, the longer observed pattern. Annualized monthly-return variability measured 2.95%, indicating that rent-index movements have varied across months even within an overall rising history. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown was 3.42%, showing that declines occurred but were limited in the supplied record. Coverage was 98.6% with 133 consecutive monthly returns. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,184 for momentum, 1,535 for stability, and 1,309 for the balanced score, where lower ranks are higher. That moderate variability means a single current ZORI reading deserves more confidence as a broad benchmark than as a precise property-level rent.
The bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. They scale the ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder, producing monthly estimates of $1,839 for a studio, $1,993 for one bedroom, $2,491 for two bedrooms, $3,464 for three bedrooms, and $4,175 for four bedrooms. The HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent series: it ranges from $1,550 for a studio to $3,520 for four bedrooms, with a two-bedroom standard of $2,100. The model therefore preserves HUD’s local bedroom spacing while anchoring its level to Zillow’s all-rental-type asking-rent index. It is useful for consistent screening across bedroom counts, but lease advertisements, included utilities, property condition, and unit availability can depart materially from these modelled values.
An arithmetic income screen puts the current asking-rent index in close proximity to the area-wide household-income median, without establishing whether any household qualifies for any unit. Annualizing the index and applying a 30% rent share produces required income of $99,640, compared with ACS ZCTA median household income of $102,555. That relationship implies an asking-rent-to-median-income ratio of 29.1%, but the household-income figure includes owners as well as renters and is not a renter-income measure. In the ACS renter survey universe, 45.0% of occupied renter households reported gross-rent burdens at or above 30% of income. That burden statistic describes surveyed occupied households over the five-year ACS period; it does not prove affordability, hardship, or utility costs for a particular available home.
The housing-stock evidence adds an important constraint to any broad affordability reading. The matched ZCTA had 17,699 housing units, and its 4.1% vacancy rate reflects vacant housing across categories rather than a count of readily rentable homes. Renters occupied 38.4% of homes, while the structure mix included 14,721 single-family units and 707 units in large multifamily structures. Only 326 units were counted as vacant for rent in the ACS data. This composition suggests that rental-market observations are being drawn from a housing base weighted toward single-family stock, but it does not identify the type, condition, location, price, or lease readiness of an individual vacancy. The city, county, and metro context figures remain comparison points only and do not change the ZCTA housing-stock universe.
The direct Redfin rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation shows a for-sale market that is not equivalent to rental activity. Median sold price was $584,868, down 4.9% year over year, while 107 homes sold and median marketing time was 24 days. Inventory was 91 homes and months of supply stood at 2.6. Sale-to-list evidence was close to list price on average, at 99.72%, yet 35.61% of sales closed above list. These are ZIP resale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental comparables, tenant demand measures, or property operating results. The combination of a lower median sold price with continued sales and near-list average execution gives a more nuanced resale picture than price change alone, but it does not establish any connection between a sale and an achievable asking rent.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the Redfin median sold price produces a 5.11% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or estimate of ownership economics because it excludes expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy at a specific property, and differences between the index and a sold home. The key tension is that the asking-rent index and its multiyear history were rising, while the direct resale median was declining year over year. The income screen sits near the area-wide household-income median, and renter burden remains substantial in the ACS survey. Those facts challenge any simple interpretation that a positive rent trend alone resolves household affordability or resale pricing conditions.
Important limits remain across every source. Zillow measures a blended asking-rent index; ACS measures a retrospective survey of occupied homes; HUD provides administrative standards; and Redfin reports recent resale observations. Their timeframes, housing universes, and definitions are different, so comparisons are directional screens rather than interchangeable facts. ACS margins of error, the ZCTA-to-delivery-ZIP mismatch, and the incomplete history coverage further limit precision. Concrete property-level checks include the advertised rent, bedroom count, utility treatment, lease term, concessions, occupancy date, physical condition, prior sale record, listing history, and whether the property belongs to the rental type represented by the relevant index. Which advertised terms and property facts remain after those checks?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI was above the matched ACS ZCTA median gross rent, but the comparison is not like-for-like. Zillow represents a current typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, whereas ACS represents occupied renter homes surveyed over five years and includes selected utilities. The gap is useful for identifying a difference between current asking conditions and the occupied-stock survey benchmark, not for pricing a specific listing.","title":"Asking rent exceeds the ACS gross-rent benchmark"},{"body":"Same-month Zillow rent changes were positive across the supplied one-, three-, and five-year horizons, so the latest direction aligns with the longer measured path. Monthly rent-index variability and the recorded drawdown show that the path included movement in both directions. The history supports a broad trend assessment, while the moderate stability rank and incomplete coverage argue against treating one current index value as exact unit-level evidence.","title":"History is upward but not perfectly smooth"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data showed a year-over-year decline in median sold price even as the Zillow asking-rent index increased. Sales volume, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list signals describe liquidity in the for-sale market only. This contrast does not establish causation between home prices and rents, but it does prevent a simple reading of rent growth as confirmation of resale-market strength.","title":"Resale price movement creates a cross-market tension"},{"body":"The arithmetic required-income screen is close to the ACS median household-income figure, yet nearly half of ACS renter households were burdened at the gross-rent threshold. Household income is not limited to renters, and ACS burden data do not describe a particular available unit. Together, the measures show why a ZIP-wide affordability screen needs to remain separate from renter-household experience and applicant qualification.","title":"Income screen and renter burden point to different universes"}],"risks":["The Zillow index is blended across rental types and cannot verify the achievable rent, lease-up pace, concessions, utility treatment, or condition of an individual studio, house, or apartment.","ACS estimates describe a matched statistical ZCTA over five years, not a current USPS delivery ZIP or a contemporaneous set of available rentals, and survey margins of error apply.","HUD-based bedroom figures are modelled estimates derived from an administrative ladder. They are not observed bedroom rents and may differ from listings because of property type, amenities, utilities, and lease terms.","The Redfin screening ratio combines asking-rent and resale sources with different underlying universes. It excludes all property-specific costs and must not be interpreted as a cap rate or return."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures cover different housing and time universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A difference between them can reflect those definitional and timing distinctions without proving that any specific listing is above or below market.","q":"Why is Zillow ZORI higher than ACS median gross rent here?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates. They use the current ZIP ZORI as a level anchor and apply the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder for relative spacing across unit sizes. HUD standards are administrative benchmarks, not asking-rent observations, so the resulting estimates should not replace direct verification of active comparable listings and lease terms.","q":"Are the bedroom rent estimates observed rents for each bedroom count?"},{"a":"Not directly. Redfin reports a rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, including sold prices, sales activity, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. Zillow measures asking rents, not resale transactions. The two sources can be compared as a directional screen, but their differing property sets, timing, and transaction types prevent either one from validating the other.","q":"Does the Redfin resale data validate the rental trend?"},{"a":"Relevant checks include the actual advertised rent, unit bedroom count, square footage if available, utility inclusions, concession terms, lease duration, availability date, physical condition, and whether the home resembles the rental types represented in the ZIP index. For resale context, review the specific property’s listing history, sale record, and current market status rather than applying the ZIP median directly.","q":"What property-level facts remain necessary after reviewing this report?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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