ZIP 95817’s June Zillow Observed Rent Index is $2,067, a typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types, and it stands 0.6% above the matching month one year earlier. That modest recent advance does not reverse the longer rent path: exact same-month change annualizes to 3.3% over three years and 4.3% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the historical upward direction, but at a much slower pace than the multi-year record. This is a backward-looking measurement of ZIP-level asking rents rather than a forecast, a signed-lease series, or an investment recommendation.
The current asking-rent screen is demanding relative to reported household income. Paying the index rent while holding housing costs to 30% of income requires $82,680 annually, compared with a $64,212 median household income in the matched area; simple annualized rent divided by that income equals 38.6%. That calculation is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,588 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities, making it 30.2% below the Zillow index. Its 65.3% rent-burden figure describes renter households reporting costs above the threshold, not the cost burden of a particular available unit. The Census ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
Bedroom figures should be read as modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the supplied local HUD ladder produces monthly estimates of $1,601 for a studio, $1,682 for one bedroom, $2,067 for two bedrooms, $2,756 for three bedrooms, and $3,171 for four bedrooms. The modelled two-bedroom estimate is only 1.3% above the local HUD two-bedroom standard of $2,040. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent observation, so the close two-bedroom comparison does not establish the rent that any individual two-bedroom home would be marketed for.
The matched ZCTA’s housing profile provides a separate survey-based backdrop. It contains 7,195 housing units, with 441 vacant units and a 6.1% vacancy rate. Renters occupy 4,235 homes and account for 62.7% of occupied households. The stock includes 4,564 single-family units and 624 units in large multifamily structures, while 100 vacant units are classified as for rent. These figures describe area-level stock and vacancy categories, not live listing availability, building condition, lease terms, or the chance that a specific renter can secure a particular home.
Broader Zillow asking-rent context places the ZIP close to the City of Sacramento figure of $2,071, below the Sacramento County figure of $2,197, and below the Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA metro figure of $2,308; each is a wider city, county, or metro context rather than a ZIP observation. The ZIP’s near match with the city index supports using the city only as a directional comparator, while the county and metro gaps show that wider-area rental levels should not be substituted for the 95817 index. None of these wider measures resolves differences among unit sizes, conditions, or included utilities.
The historical record deserves a cautious reading because this ZIP is categorized as high variability. Coverage is 100% for the available history period, so missing observations do not drive the trend comparison. Monthly rent changes produce an annualized variability measure of 4.6%, which lowers confidence in treating one current index value as a precise, stable market clearing rent. Separately, the deepest historical decline from a prior peak was 4.5%, showing that upward multi-year growth has included meaningful setbacks. Transparent national discovery ranks are 1,570 for momentum, 2,758 for stability, and 2,444 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are higher. These are descriptive discovery tools, not forecasts.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation points to a for-sale market that is firmer than the decelerating rent trend alone might suggest. Median sold price was $512,384, up 1.5% year over year, with 37 homes sold and a median 19 days on market. Inventory was 32 homes, and 2.6 months of supply indicates the listed resale inventory would take roughly that long to clear at the recent sales pace; it is not a measure of rental vacancy. The average sale-to-list result was 99.2%, while 30.6% of sales closed above list and 54.3% went off market within two weeks. Those are ZIP resale liquidity signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. The price and supply evidence challenges any simple reading of slower rent growth as broadly weak housing demand, yet the income screen still limits what the asking-rent snapshot alone can demonstrate.
Annualizing ZIP ZORI and dividing it by the ZIP median sold price creates a 4.8% cross-source screening ratio only. It can frame the tension between current asking rents, slower recent rent growth, and the observed resale-price level, but it does not establish property-level economics. Before applying it to an address, verify recent asking comparables by bedroom count, square footage, condition, utilities, concessions, lease length, and availability date. Confirm the relevant sale record, listing history, ownership costs, and any unit-specific restrictions separately. The evidence here is strongest as a source-limited ZIP screen: what does the current index miss about the actual dwelling being evaluated?
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow asking-rent index is slightly above its year-earlier level, while the three- and five-year exact same-month measures remain materially stronger. That pattern preserves the longer upward direction but signals slower recent momentum. Because the ZIP is categorized as high variability, the current index should be treated as a useful market indicator rather than a precise rent quote for every unit.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but has slowed"},{"body":"The arithmetic required-income screen exceeds the matched ZCTA’s reported median household income, and annualized asking rent represents a larger share of that income than the 30% screen. ACS median gross rent is lower than Zillow ZORI because the series measure different universes: occupied renter homes with selected utilities versus a typical observed asking-rent index. Area-level burden data cannot determine the affordability of a particular home.","title":"Affordability signals are tighter than the local income benchmark"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation shows a year-over-year median-price increase, limited months of supply, short marketing time, and sale-to-list signals near list price. Those for-sale indicators challenge a simplistic conclusion that slower recent asking-rent growth means uniformly soft housing conditions. They do not, however, constitute rental evidence, predict future prices, or reveal property-specific rental economics.","title":"Resale liquidity creates a counterpoint to rent deceleration"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures scale the ZIP asking-rent index using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are modelled estimates designed to organize the relationship between bedroom categories, not measurements of advertised or signed rents for each size. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, so even a close comparison between the modelled two-bedroom result and HUD does not validate an individual listing price.","title":"Bedroom estimates are ladder-based, not observed rents"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI, ACS gross rent, HUD standards, and Redfin resale metrics each describe different populations, dates, and transaction types. Treating them as interchangeable can create a misleading conclusion about a unit’s attainable asking rent or housing cost.","The high-variability history category, meaningful historical drawdown, and slower latest year-over-year increase mean one current ZIP rent snapshot carries less precision than a stable series would. Historical change does not establish a future rent path.","Area vacancy, vacant-for-rent counts, renter share, and rent-burden statistics are aggregate ZCTA indicators. They cannot prove that a specific apartment is available, competitively priced, affordable to a particular household, or likely to lease quickly.","The annualized rent-to-price screen excludes property-specific expenses, financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, concessions, vacancy experience, and physical condition. It is therefore unsuitable as a standalone measure of ownership economics or a prediction of results."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures cover different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent comes from a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Asking rents for currently marketed homes are not expected to equal survey-based rents paid by existing occupants.","q":"Why does the Zillow asking-rent index exceed ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the current Zillow asking-rent index through the local HUD bedroom ladder. The ladder preserves relative bedroom relationships but does not observe listing rents, lease concessions, utilities, unit condition, square footage, or exact availability for any bedroom category.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures direct observations of studio through four-bedroom listings?"},{"a":"It annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index and divides by the 30% housing-cost threshold to show the income associated with that arithmetic benchmark. It is not financial advice, a rent recommendation, an applicant screening rule, or evidence that every household in the ZCTA pays the index rent.","q":"What does the required-income calculation actually show?"},{"a":"Use it as a separate direct ZIP for-sale observation. Median sold price, marketing time, supply, inventory, and sale-to-list measures describe resale activity rather than rental transactions. Comparing annualized ZORI with sold price can support a cross-source screen, but the comparison does not establish the economics, rent, or resale outcome of a specific property.","q":"How should the Redfin resale information be used with the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1252.109271},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1332.19726},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1315.880773},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1350.180607},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1289.217562},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1342.744031},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1342.771082},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1379.983058},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1374.141175},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1378.663324},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1397.140643},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1411.575051},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1432.510046},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1395.331437},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1420.766778},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1416.745883},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1457.163787},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1428.217697},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1449.872321},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1446.331039},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1463.44575},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1480.017008},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1496.785613},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1511.640686},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1526.247469},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1550.835411},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1569.466087},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1544.00958},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1541.294599},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1535.674922},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1519.802122},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1508.886085},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1520.841},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1556.539919},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1582.570921},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1592.065847},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1606.490953},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1636.784173},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1629.285424},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1636.695727},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1629.944261},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1656.319931},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1677.240215},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1694.15436},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1706.567161},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1691.087411},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1708.268404},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1745.806857},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1780.794761},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1793.820284},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1787.802398},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1789.986692},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1801.068953},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1806.200812},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1835.81321},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1850.16688},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1868.600821},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1871.905385},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1869.385703},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1846.911134},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1829.970453},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1819.198123},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1836.82537},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1857.701869},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1871.333994},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1892.677434},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1873.904328},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1877.10144},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1863.459652},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1901.857289},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1898.5006},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1912.964189},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1910.722867},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1923.184488},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1930.77373},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1937.970335},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1961.449311},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1949.341256},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1936.920915},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1948.675982},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1960.868262},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1987.847414},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1983.977104},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1994.398141},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2003.902467},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1995.402026},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2009.51488},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2028.280012},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2036.044609},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2033.907257},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2054.164601},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2055.457054},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2063.890972},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2037.72343},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2056.526794},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2058.215682},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2067.339826},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2081.768506},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2074.725551},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2062.998562},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2052.361044},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2064.618046},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2066.904762}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":103,"firstPeriod":"2017-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":103,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2054.164601,"endRent":2066.904762,"change":0.0062021130116827194,"cagr":0.0062021130116827194},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1873.904328,"endRent":2066.904762,"change":0.10299375006299694,"cagr":0.03321574857780085},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1677.240215,"endRent":2066.904762,"change":0.23232482951167488,"cagr":0.04266558659013775}},"maxDrawdown":-0.04515177057346076,"annualizedVolatility":0.045689398951652575,"consecutiveReturnCount":102}}