At $1,677 in June 2026, ZIP 95825’s Zillow Observed Rent Index was essentially flat year over year, down 0.09%. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a current asking-market indicator rather than a lease ledger or a utility-inclusive household measure. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; however, a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the matched ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,692, placing the Zillow asking index 0.9% below that survey measure. ACS median gross rent covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, making the near match informative but not interchangeable.
The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation presents the sharpest cross-market tension. Median sold price was $393,411, down 6.33% year over year, while 82 homes sold with a median 23 days on market. Resale inventory stood at 75 homes and months of supply measured 2.8. Sellers received an average 99.29% of list price; 27.53% of sales closed above list. These are ZIP for-sale and resale signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. The price decline reinforces the cooling direction visible in the recent rent reading, yet the near-list sale signal and sales count show that a price decline alone does not describe all resale conditions. Annualizing the ZIP rent and dividing it by the median sold price produces the supplied 5.12% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a property-level return measure.
Income and burden data add a separate affordability tension. The matched ACS ZCTA reports median household income of $64,602. Applying the structural 30% screen to the current Zillow asking index produces required annual income of $67,080, and the index equals 31.2% of median household income when annualized. That calculation is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Among 11,787 renter-occupied homes in the ACS survey, 6,717 households reported gross-rent burdens at or above 30%, a 57.0% share. This describes surveyed occupied renter households, not the affordability of a specific listing, household, lease term, or unit configuration.
The bedroom view is a modelled ladder, not measured bedroom rent evidence. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,299 for a studio, $1,365 for one bedroom, $1,677 for two bedrooms, $2,234 for three bedrooms, and $2,575 for four bedrooms. The FY 2026 HUD two-bedroom standard is $2,260, putting the ZIP ZORI 25.8% below that administrative benchmark. HUD FMR or SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent, and its role here is solely to shape the modelled bedroom estimates. It should not be read as evidence that available ZIP units actually ask those amounts.
The ACS ZCTA housing base contains 16,739 housing units, including 5,449 single-family units and 5,150 units in large multifamily structures. It recorded 1,022 vacant units, a 6.1% vacancy rate, with 465 units identified as vacant for rent. This mix helps frame why an all-types asking-rent index can differ from any one property segment: the stock spans different structure types and occupied renter households. Vacancy is a classification of units in the survey period, not proof that a particular apartment is available, competitively priced, well maintained, or suitable for a particular renter. Likewise, the burden share cannot establish conditions for a specific property.
The longer ZORI history does not simply repeat the latest cooling signal. The negative one-year movement breaks from exact same-month annualized growth of 1.26% over three years and 3.15% over five years. Its 3.11% annualized monthly-return variability shows that monthly rent-index changes have not followed a perfectly smooth path. The deepest historical pullback was a 2.56% maximum drawdown, a separate measure of decline from a prior peak rather than routine month-to-month variation. Coverage was 99.3%, supporting a largely complete historical record, though it does not convert history into a forecast. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,241 for momentum, 1,795 for stability, and 2,413 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher. Together, the cooling turn and measured variability warrant less confidence in treating one current rent snapshot as a permanent level.
Broader geography provides context but not substitutes for ZIP evidence. The City of Sacramento context rent was $2,071, the Sacramento County context rent was $2,197, and the Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA metro context rent was $2,308. Each wider-area figure sits above the ZIP’s asking index, but city, county, and metro values describe their named scopes rather than ZIP 95825’s specific listings, household mix, or bedroom distribution. The comparison therefore supports a relative pricing screen, not a claim that any individual ZIP unit is discounted against a directly comparable unit elsewhere. It also does not resolve the distinction between current asks, ACS gross rent, HUD administrative standards, and resale prices.
The evidence has practical limits at the property level. ZORI is a blended asking-rent index; ACS is a multi-year survey; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin describes direct ZIP resale activity rather than rental economics. Decision-relevant checks include confirming the exact address and delivery ZIP, current asking rent, bedroom count, included utilities, concessions, lease duration, availability date, condition, and comparable active listings. For a purchase-related review, useful checks also include the individual property’s sale date, list-price history, inspection condition, taxes, insurance, association obligations, and whether its features resemble recently sold ZIP homes. The central question is whether a specific unit’s current terms align with the separate asking-rent, household-survey, and resale evidence rather than with any single headline metric.
","findings":[{"body":"The latest Zillow asking-rent index is marginally below its year-earlier level, while the direct ZIP resale observation shows a substantially larger median sold-price decline. That alignment supports a cooling cross-market reading, but the resale data also show near-list execution and completed sales. Rental and resale observations should therefore be interpreted as separate evidence streams rather than as interchangeable measures.","title":"Cooling rent signal sits beside a larger resale-price decline"},{"body":"Annualizing the current asking-rent index places the structural income screen above the matched ZCTA median household income. The ACS burden result adds evidence that many occupied renter households reported paying a high gross-rent share of income. Neither result identifies the affordability of a particular apartment because household income, utilities, concessions, and lease terms differ across units.","title":"Affordability screen exceeds local median-income arithmetic"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures use the local HUD bedroom ladder to scale the all-types ZIP asking-rent index. They are useful for internally consistent screening across bedroom sizes, but they are not collected asking-rent observations. HUD standards are administrative benchmarks, while Zillow ZORI reflects blended observed asking rents, so neither source replaces current unit-level listings.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled rather than observed rents"},{"body":"Recent rent direction differs from the positive three-year and five-year same-month history. The history record is highly complete, yet monthly variation and the prior peak-to-trough decline show that the index has moved around its trend. The discovery ranks are backward-looking comparative tools among eligible ZIP histories, not forecasts, investment ratings, or recommendations.","title":"History supports caution with a single current snapshot"}],"risks":["A ZIP-level Zillow asking-rent index blends rental types and cannot establish the asking rent, concession package, included utilities, bedroom layout, condition, or actual availability of any individual property.","ACS ZCTA figures are five-year survey estimates for a statistical area, and the ZCTA boundary is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP; margins of error and survey timing limit address-level conclusions.","The HUD bedroom ladder is an administrative standard rather than market asking-rent evidence, so the modelled bedroom estimates may differ materially from current listings for similarly sized units.","Redfin resale metrics describe a rolling three-month for-sale market. Median sold price and sale-to-list behavior cannot establish rental transaction conditions, operating costs, financing outcomes, or property-specific economics."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR or SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. Similar values do not make the sources interchangeable.","q":"Why do Zillow, ACS, and HUD rent figures differ?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the all-types ZIP Zillow index through the local HUD bedroom ladder. They provide a consistent sizing framework, but they do not represent measured listings, signed leases, or direct market observations for studios through four-bedroom homes.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed ZIP asking rents?"},{"a":"No. The ratio is simply annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the direct ZIP median sold price from the Redfin resale observation. It excludes property-specific operating expenses, taxes, insurance, maintenance, financing, vacancy experience, transaction costs, and differences between rented homes and recently sold homes.","q":"Does the rent-to-price screening ratio measure investment return?"},{"a":"The key checks are the exact property address and delivery ZIP, active comparable listings, current rent and concessions, included utilities, bedroom count, lease terms, condition, availability date, and ownership-related costs where relevant. Those property facts can be compared with the separate ZIP asking-rent, ACS, HUD, and resale evidence without treating any one source as definitive.","q":"What would resolve the biggest uncertainty for a specific property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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